Ben Roethlisberger said Tuesday that he’d like to play three to five more years. Good for him! We should all have a goal. If his is to be dodging edge rushers when he’s 41, that’s great.
History, however, suggests the Steelers probably shouldn’t be betting on him reaching it and were wise to begin looking for his replacement, whether that ultimately proves to be third-round pick Mason Rudolph or not.
Pro Football Reference’s “similar players” feature is instructive in this regard. For each player profile on its site, PFR provides a list of historically comparable players based on production (as opposed to style) to help us add context to the statistical profiles of modern stars. (You can read more about the methodology here.) And Roethlisberger’s comparables don’t paint a pretty picture for his future.
Through 14 seasons, Roethlisberger’s career best compares to those of Jim Kelly, Eli Manning, Terry Bradshaw, Drew Bledsoe, John Hadl, Donovan McNabb, Bob Griese, Mark Brunell, Steve McNair and Warren Moon.
Of that group, one — Manning — is still active. Seven others retired by the end of their age 37 seasons, which Roethlisberger and Manning are entering in 2018. Only Brunell and Moon played past that age, and only Moon saw meaningful action.
Basically, there’s very little history of quarterbacks of Roethlisberger’s caliber producing at a high level past the age he’s at now. Yes, the Tom Bradys, Peyton Mannings and Brett Favres of the world have produced well into their 40s. But Roethlisberger doesn’t fit their profile statistically, even as Brady and Manning are seen as his contemporaries for winning multiple modern Super Bowls in the same general timeframe. So they’re bad points of comparison.
Roethlisberger has also absorbed a ghastly amount of hits compared to his peers on the list.
No player in that group of 10 has taken more than the 477 sacks that he has. Only Bledsoe comes close at 467, meaning Roethlisberger arguably has more mileage on him than any of those guys did when they called it quits.
Then there’s the matter of rapid declines and divorces. Of Roethlisberger’s nine retired comparables, six flamed out with their original team before retiring. Of the others, two — Griese and Kelly — saw steep drops in production between their final two years as full-time starters. And Bradshaw, famously, was plagued by elbow troubles before he walked away.
All of it adds up to a lot for Roethlisberger to overcome if he’s going to reach his goal of a happy ending with the Steelers years down the road.
He does, of course, have some things working in his favor. As he noted the other day, he has a solid offensive line in front of him, and he’s comfortable with new offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner. Both of those factors should help him.
That said, at a certain point, the Steelers would be spitting in the face of history without a viable Plan B. Most of their stars around Roethlisberger are under contract for several prime years to come, giving general manager Kevin Colbert and company every reason to believe this team can continue to be competitive. The Steelers can’t risk all of that falling apart if Roethlisberger quickly turns into a pumpkin. Or if he has a quick falling out with the team.
History suggests that’s at least a distinct possibility. Perhaps Rudolph won’t see the field and Roethlisberger will lead the Steelers to Super Bowl contention several more years as he hopes, but a third-round pick seems like a small price to pay for preparation if he doesn’t.
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Adam Bittner: abittner@post-gazette.com and Twitter @fugimaster24.
First Published: May 3, 2018, 2:00 p.m.
