The MLB regular season ended yesterday on an upbeat note for the Pirates, as they clinched second place in the National League Central Division with a 4-0 win over Cincinnati, and with it home-field advantage for the wildcard game.
The final Central Division standings have St. Louis in first place -- two games ahead of the Pirates and three in front of Chicago. Those standings reflect the 162-game schedule. They in no way reflect the current strength of the three teams.
The case, for example, can be made that the Cubs, who come to PNC Park Wednesday for the wildcard game, are the best team in the division. And if they are not, then the Pirates are.
Consider these records:
Since the All-Star Game: Cubs 50-25; Pirates 45-29; Cardinals 44-29.
Since the end of August: Cubs 23-9; Pirates 19-14; Cardinals 15-17 (in fairness, St. Louis lost three meaningless games in the final weekend).
Now consider these statistics, all through Saturday.
• Since the All-Star Game, the Cubs led the Central Division in runs, home runs and OPS.
• Since the All-Star Game, the Cubs led the Central Division in ERA, BAA and WHIP.
• Since the end of August, the Cubs led the Central Division in runs, home runs and OPS.
• Since the end of August, the Cubs led the Central Division in ERA, BAA and WHIP (and all by large margins).
In all but one of those categories (OPS after August) the Pirates finished second.
None of the above is to suggest the Cubs are assured of defeating the Pirates on Wednesday. Or that the winner of that game will have an easy time with St. Louis in the National League Division Series. Far from it. Anything can happen in a baseball game, as evidenced most recently by the Cincinnati Reds breaking a 13-game losing streak and beating the Pirates and A.J. Burnett in a meaningful game Saturday night.
It is to suggest the Cubs are formidable and that their strength goes well beyond the much-ballyhooed excellence of Jake Arrieta, who will be their starting pitcher Wednesday.
Look at this position-by-position rundown between the Cubs and Pirates:
First base: Anthony Rizzo is one of the best players in the game and has a large edge over Pedro Alvarez, offensively and defensively.
Second base: Starlin Castro was batting .426 with a 1.202 OPS in September. That and his greater range give him the edge over Neil Walker.
Shortstop: Jordy Mercer since the ASG: .228/.289/.301 -- .590. Addison Russell since the ASG: .263/.323/.434 -- .757. Mercer’s DWAR is 0.7; Russell is 2.6. Edge to Russell.
Third base: No contest. Kris Bryant has a large advantage over Aramis Ramirez and Josh Harrison. Bryant has an .853 OPS (.857 in the second half).
Left field: Although both Kyle Schwarber and Chris Coghlan have a higher OPS, Starling Marte has the clear advantage at this position.
Center field: Dexter Fowler is having a nice season, but Andrew McCutchen is light years better.
Right field: Two potential superstars in Gregory Polanco and Jorge Soler with very similar numbers. Even.
Catcher: Miguel Montero had the edge in power, 15 home runs, and a slight edge in slugging percentage; Francisco Cervelli had the advantage in on-base percentage and a higher OPS. Cervelli has thrown out 21 percent; Montero 20. Slight edge to Cervelli.
Benches: The Pirates have Josh Harrison, Mike Morse, Sean Rodriguez and Travis Snider. The Cubs have Schwarber/Coghlan, Javier Baez, Tommy La Stella, Austin Jackson and Chris Denorfia. Even.
The Cubs have the better starter on Wednesday. The Pirates’ bullpen is stronger.
It has the makings of a classic. But so did the previous two wildcard games. In those games the winning teams scored 14 runs and the losing teams two.
First Published: October 5, 2015, 9:30 a.m.
