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After a full-court press, Democrats are fielding 56% of state House candidates

Associated Press

After a full-court press, Democrats are fielding 56% of state House candidates

It was post-election 2016: The recounts had just concluded, and the numbers weren’t encouraging for Pennsylvania Democrats. Though they had tried to run their candidates in most legislative districts, they ended up losing two more seats in the state House, increasing the already-large Republican majority.

The director of Pennsylvania’s House Democratic Campaign Committee called a meeting with his team and members of the state House Democratic leadership to talk about tackling the GOP 39-seat advantage.

It was time for a full-court press, said director Nathan Davidson, shaping the party’s 2018 electoral strategy around a sports metaphor. They should hit the ground now, he said, tapping into grassroots energy to run candidates in every single state House race they could. 

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“This has to be our strategy,” Mr. Davidson recalled saying in the meeting. “Otherwise, how are we going to hold Republicans accountable?”

“You miss 100 percent of the shots you don’t take,” he said.

The strategy, so far, has seemed to pay off for the party. Democrats are filed to run in 180 of the 203 state House districts, the most since at least 2000, and make up about 56 percent of all candidates running, the highest percentage in a decade. In the elections for state Senate, Democratic candidates are running in every district but one, a feat the party hasn’t accomplished since 2006.

Filing the paperwork to run is only the first step in the long process toward winning a seat, but the wave of initial interest in forming candidacies and challenging Republican incumbents is a sign the party is energized ahead of the November election, Democrats and analysts say. And though it is unlikely either chamber will flip this cycle, Democrats could be poised to make considerable gains.

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Two similar waves of candidacies in the last 15 years resulted in legislative gains for the party out of power. In 2006, Democrats ran in 175 districts and picked up eight seats and the majority, a consequence of the Republican legislature passing a controversial pay raise for legislators. The Republicans picked up 13 seats in 2010, regaining their majority after running candidates all over the state amid the Tea Party movement. 

But Republicans this cycle hold sizable advantages in both chambers that only a Democrat “tsunami” could flip, said veteran Muhlenberg College pollster Chris Borick. He said the conditions are favorable for Democrats, though, as they feed off grassroots energy.

“You have a lot of open seats, and you have the political winds at your back if you’re a Democrat,” Mr. Borick said. “If you have been considering running and looking for the right opportunity, you’ve found it.”

Much of that opportunity came from the ground up. Democratic campaign officials saw a benefit in tapping into small movements across the state that were resisting the Trump administration. Mr. Davidson said it was a matter of saying, “Look, marching in the streets is good and we should do that, but the way we can really change things is on the ballot” — not just for Congressional seats, but for districts represented in Harrisburg.

“We did have to work on some of the new energy in the party to focus down, and say, ‘Hey, not everyone’s going to run for Congress. There are other ways, important ways, we can resist,” Mr. Davidson said.

As a result, the surge of Democratic candidacies hit Western Pennsylvania, too. In the 19 house districts that represent parts of Butler, Westmoreland, Washington, Armstrong and Fayette counties, Democrats are filed to run in 17, the highest number in six election cycles. For the first time in at least 12 years, they’re slated to run in all seven of Allegheny County’s Republican-held House seats.

Allegheny County Rep. Mark Mustio, who leads House Republican campaign efforts, said he believes the competition can only be good for GOP candidates, who will have to “work hard to put their resumes in front of the voters.”

As for the Democratic party being energized, Mr. Mustio said that happens any time there’s a change in the political party of the president. He said he isn’t worried.

“When you have as many seats as we have, obviously, you're going to be playing more defense,” Mr. Mustio said. “In an off-year election, you're going to have to work harder, and everybody knows that.”

Many of the Democratic candidacies in the region are shaping up to be more moderate or centrist, said Mr. Davidson, which could be a sign that Conor Lamb’s win in the recent special election for the U.S. House’s 18th district is influencing messaging. Mr. Mustio said the Democrats he has seen in Allegheny County are “pretty far left,” which won’t resonate “in areas that want low taxes and job growth.”

Julian Routh: jrouth@post-gazette.com

First Published: March 29, 2018, 1:01 p.m.
Updated: March 29, 2018, 1:10 p.m.

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