About the only thing faster than the fall of Rep. Tim Murphy this week is the rush of politicians seeking to replace him. But while Democratic chances of flipping the district may have improved, it still presents a challenging landscape.
On Tuesday afternoon, the Post-Gazette reported on texts suggesting that the strongly pro-life 18th District Republican urged a woman with whom he was having an extramarital relationship to get an abortion. The paper also reported on allegations that Mr. Murphy denigrated and threatened his office’s employees.
And by Wednesday morning, GOP circles were abuzz with rumors about who the party might field to replace Mr. Murphy. That very evening, state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler, R-Jefferson, announced his bid for Mr. Murphy’s seat — just two hours after Mr. Murphy revealed he would not seek re-election.
“We need leaders in Washington with the backbone to fight for our shared Western Pennsylvania values, and we need Republicans in Congress who will fight for conservative principles,” Mr. Reschenthaler said in a statement. “That is why I am running for Congress.”
On Thursday, after Mr. Murphy announced that he would resignation later this month, it took only half an hour for state Sen. Kim Ward, R-Hempfield, to formally launch her own bid to replace him
“People are sick of being disappointed by Washington,” her statement read. “They want Congress to keep the promise to replace Obamacare with a plan that helps to make affordable healthcare accessible, achieve much-needed tax reform and protect our borders. They ... can trust me to go to Washington, D.C. and give it all I’ve got.”
Other Republicans may also enter the race. State Rep. Rick Saccone, R-Elizabeth, told the Post-Gazette Tuesday he was pondering a run, and on Thursday said the entrance of other Republicans “hasn’t deterred me or deflected me.”
Mr. Saccone is hoping to challenge U.S. Sen. Bob Casey next year, but on Thursday said that while “I’m still focused on my Senate race, if people want me to jump into [the House contest] I’ll strongly consider it. I’m getting a lot of calls for people who want me in Washington either way.”
Democrats already had three candidates seeking to challenge Mr. Murphy next year: former Allegheny County councilman and teachers union official Mike Crossey, former Department of Veterans Affairs official Pam Iovino, and emergency physician Bob Solomon. But the Democratic field too may expand in light of this week’s events.
Westmoreland County Commissioner Gina Cerilli, for one, said on Thursday that she was “seriously considering” a run, though she added, “I haven’t made a final decision. These past two days, my phone hasn’t stopped ringing. It’s been a whirlwind.”
Another Democrat said to be considering a run for Mr. Murphy’s seat is Conor Lamb, an assistant U.S. Attorney in the Pittsburgh office and the nephew of City Controller Michael Lamb.
Mr. Murphy’s withdrawal tightens the time frame for making such decisions. Under state law, Gov. Tom Wolf must issue a writ of election within 10 days of the vacancy, setting a special election date at least 60 days in the future. What’s more, “a special election changes the dynamics of the race,” said Mr. Crossey. Rather than let voters choose each party’s nominees in a primary, candidates will be selected by party leaders. “That’s a whole different campaign,” he said.
Allegheny County Democratic Committee Chair Nancy Patton Mills said that Democratic committee people from throughout the district would select a nominee at least two months before election day.
“That’s at the latest,” she said. “We’re waiting for the governor to set the date, and I think he’ll do what’s best for the district.”
The landscape of the 18th remains challenging for Democrats no matter who their nominee. The district is nearly 93 percent white, and Donald Trump carried the district by a 58 to 38 percent margin over Hillary Clinton last year, according to the National Journal’s “Almanac of American Politics.
The sheer sprawl of the 2,073-square-mile district, which Democrats often cite as an egregious case of Republican gerrymandering, is also a challenge. Cobbled together from portions of Allegheny and Westmoreland counties along with more rural Washington and Greene counties, “[T]he region’s high-income suburbs and its gritty factory towns ... are scattered all around,” the Almanac notes.
On the other hand, political prognosticators at the University of Virginia Center for Politics offered Democrats a ray of hope, shifting their assessment of the 18th from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.”
“This is a very tough district for Democrats in a region that, outside of Allegheny County, has been trending away from them for two decades,” said Kyle Kondik, the Managing Editor of the Center’s newsletter. “However, the Republicans have had some close calls in special elections this year in House districts that are very Republican on paper.”
For Democrats, “the best scenario would have been if [Mr. Murphy] fought it out” and ran for re-election, said Chris Borick a pollster at Muhlenberg College. “A wounded incumbent and having the winds of a political sea-change at their back is the perfect opportunity to flip a district.”
Still, he said, “One condition in which we see flips is an open seat. And that’s better than the scenario they had a week ago.”
And after this week, who knows what it will look like tomorrow?
Chris Potter: cpotter@post-gazette.com or 412-263-2533.
First Published: October 5, 2017, 9:55 p.m.
