WASHINGTON -- Power brokers from around the country convene in Cleveland next week for the Republican National Convention, a quadrennial schmooze-fest and celebration of conservative values, where politicians, lobbyists and big-money donors regale each other with food, drink and speeches.
But Pennsylvania’s most powerful Republican won’t be among them. U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey is among several vulnerable incumbents steering clear of the convention.
“Conventions are usually the time that people in tight races can shore up party – and donor – support, get some face time for themselves while the country is watching, and swap ideas with people in similar situations,” said Chris Ellis, associate professor of political science at Bucknell University. “For the most part, if you’re locked in a really tight race, you want to go to this.”
That is, unless your party’s presumptive nominee is as divisive and polarizing as Donald Trump.
His candidacy is motivating some politicians to stay away, although Mr. Toomey, who is in one of the country’s most competitive Senate races, is being cagey about his reasons for skipping out.
He declined to say whether his plans would be different if someone else were the presumptive nominee.
“That’s a hypothetical,” Mr. Toomey said. “I don’t know what I would be doing under a different set of circumstances that don’t exist. Under the circumstances we have, I’m going to be campaigning in the state” instead of going to Cleveland.
Other Republicans have offered flip and flimsy excuses for sitting out. For example, U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., who has publicly clashed with Mr. Trump, told the Associated Press he has to stay home to mow his lawn.
Other prominent Republicans sitting out include U.S. Sens. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and Marco Rubio of Florida , who is running for re-election to his Senate seat after losing the presidential primary to Mr. Trump.
Ohio governor and former presidential candidate John Kasich, whose home state is hosting the convention, has not said whether he will attend, but has said that regardless, he will not be speaking at the convention.
Political scientists say Mr. Toomey is playing it safe by not explaining his decision to stay home.
“It gives him flexibility that being more vocal wouldn’t,” said Chris Borick of Muhlenberg College. “The more adamant he is about refusing to go the more he risks offending individuals within the party that might actually support Trump.”
At the same time, he avoids associating himself with a convention that could turn violent and a candidate who is seen as racist, homophobic and misogynistic.
“The opposition will always try to attach the statements of the presidential nominee to down-ticket candidates. That has always been the case, and it will be the case even more so this time,” said U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Lehigh Valley. “That’s going to happen on both sides.”
That’s one factor in Mr. Dent’s decision to skip this year’s convention, but there are others.
“I was a John Kasich supporter and my plan was to attend the convention to support him,” Mr. Dent said. “Donald Trump is part of the reason, but it’s not simply about Donald Trump. I wanted to support John Kasich.”
Once it became clear that Mr. Trump would secure the nomination, Mr. Dent knew he would stay home.
Besides, he said, he can better spend the time at home campaigning for re-election.
Other members of the Pennsylvania congressional delegation plan to attend and to enthusiastically support Mr. Trump.
They include third-term congressman Mike Kelly of Butler, who has never attended a national convention, said he is “absolutely” going this time and looks forward to supporting Mr. Trump. He is an alternate at-large delegate.
Other delegation members heading to Cleveland are:
• U.S. Rep. Bill Shuster, R-Bedford, is attending as an elected delegate. He supports Mr. Trump.
• U.S. Rep. Tom Marino, R-Lycoming, is attending as an at-large delegate. He has endorsed Mr. Trump.
• U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, R-Hazleton, who has endorsed Mr. Trump, is attending as an at-large delegate.
• U.S. Rep. Keith Rothfus, R-Sewickley, supports Mr. Trump and is attending.
• U.S. Rep. Glenn “G.T.” Thompson, R-Centre, plans to attend and says he supports the Republican ticket.
Among those not attending are:
• U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy, R-Upper St. Clair, has never been to a convention and won’t go this time, either, a spokesman said. He has not formally endorsed Mr. Trump but has appeared alongside him at campaign events in Pennsylvania.
• U.S. Rep. Joe Pitts R- Lancaster, who has skipped several previous conventions, isn’t going this time, either. He has not endorsed a candidate.
• U.S. Rep. Ryan Costello, R-Chester, was elected as a district delegate but later said he would not attend. He supports Mr. Trump.
• U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, R-York, who supports Mr. Trump, will not attend because he believes conventions are for elected delegates.
• U.S. Rep. Patrick Meehan, R-Delaware, is not attending because he will be in the Middle East with a congressional delegation.
Those sitting out will miss out on the on the post-convention bump that most candidates get in the polls. They’ll also lose the chance to speak at delegation breakfasts and, in Mr. Toomey’s case, the likely opportunity to give a speech on a national stage. A vulnerable party stalwart in a high-profile race, he almost certainly would have been given at least a few minutes to speak.
“Typically, it’s good to be on stage, to be on camera, to even just been seen. If you’re someone like Pat Toomey, then your jobs is to show in informal ways that you’re important, that you’re an indispensable member of the caucus who is advancing legislation and giving important speeches. You want to show yourself off a somebody that it would hurt to lose,” Mr. Ellis said.
In Mr. Toomey’s case, Republican leaders already know that, said former Gov. Ed Rendell, host committee chairman for this month’s Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.
“Pat Toomey has the advantage of being an incumbent senator who has been around a while so he already knows the GOP influencers pretty well so he’s not missing out on as much as maybe some other people,” said Mr. Rendell. “It’s up to each elected official to figure out: Do I lose more by going and being linked to an unpopular candidate than I gain by going?”
For Democratic candidates, he said, there’s no reason not to be in Philadelphia.
“I’d say, make sure you spend some time on the floor with the delegates and don’t spend all the time in the boxes with the rich people,” he said. “Spend some time getting to know all of the delegates, who obviously have some ability to turn out the vote,” Mr. Rendell said. “That’s important.”
Madeline Kennedy and Mike Danielewski contributed. Washington Bureau Chief Tracie Mauriello: tmauriello@post-gazette.com; 703-996-9292 or @pgPoliTweets.
First Published: July 16, 2016, 4:04 a.m.