As Western Pennsylvanians trade their coats for cutoffs this weekend, they can thank — or curse — El Nino, the occasional climate shift that may keep warming the area for weeks.
The phenomenon pumps temperate air from the Pacific Ocean across North America, possibly setting up Pittsburgh for less snow than usual this winter, some forecasters said. They expect temperatures to run above normal well into January.
“It’s one of the strongest El Ninos on record,” said Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist at State College-based AccuWeather. “It’s not going to disappear overnight.”
Although the pattern could weaken by February, Mr. Smerbeck said, it could be enough to ease snow- and ice-removal expenses for government agencies stung by more dicey conditions the last two winters. The state Department of Transportation went about $700,000 over its 2014-15 winter maintenance budget for Allegheny, Beaver and Lawrence counties.
“Right now, certainly, the more days that we have above freezing, the better off our budget will be,” said Jeff Karr, an assistant district executive for maintenance at PennDOT. He said higher temperatures are more helpful than dry weather for taming maintenance costs, in part because road salt loses effectiveness when the mercury plunges.
The weather pattern isn’t such a boon for downhill skiers, who could wait a while to hit local slopes. Boyce Park in Monroeville and Plum has yet to set an opening date for its skiing operation. Wisp Resort in Garrett County, Md., could begin making snow during a chilly snap forecast late this week, although it’s not clear when skiing there will begin for the season, said marketing director Lori Epp.
“Within a matter of days, we can have a majority of our terrain covered. We’re just staying our course, staying optimistic,” Ms. Epp said.
Temperatures should tumble into the seasonable 30s by late week, down from record-approaching highs this weekend in the 60s, according to National Weather Service forecasts. But much of the next couple weeks should stay toastier than normal, said Lee Hendricks, a meteorologist at the weather service in Moon.
He said the El Nino trend in Western Pennsylvania looks to be the most robust since 1994-95.
His take: The pattern could help deliver soppy East Coast storms from late January through early March, which may mean later-season snow in and around Pittsburgh.
“Unfortunately, that varies between a little and a lot — depending on the track of the storm,” said Mr. Hendricks, who projected near-typical overall snowfall totals for the region. “Just because we’re expected to average, over the three-month period, near normal doesn’t mean we can’t have a major East Coast snowstorm.”
The expectations follow hefty snow tallies in the Pittsburgh area, which recorded 63.4 inches in 2013-14 and 47.5 inches last year, according to the weather service. The 30-year average is 41.4 inches.
Pipe-bursting cold made its own mark, with last winter bringing the region its second-coldest February since 1875. Temperatures averaged about 18 degrees that month. But less frigid weather and cheaper natural gas should temper many home heating bills this winter, said Jeffrey Nehr, a Peoples Natural Gas vice president.
“Where normally prices would elevate with weather, the prices [for natural gas] have been moderate,” Mr. Nehr said. Nationally, residential prices for the fuel should be about 4 percent cheaper this winter, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Natural gas heats nearly half of homes nationwide.
AccuWeather expects February temperatures in Pittsburgh to be typical — around 30 degrees on average — after averaging about four and two degrees above norms for December and January, respectively. The company’s Mr. Smerbeck estimated snowfall for the season should land around 30 inches.
“These Pacific air masses — they’re warmer, but there’s a price to pay,” he said. “They cause a lot of clouds. Day after day, you get low clouds that kind of hang around.”
Adam Smeltz: asmeltz@post-gazette.com, 412-263-2625 or on Twitter @asmeltz.
First Published: December 13, 2015, 5:00 a.m.