The Federal Communications Commission last week approved guidelines for the next revolution in wireless technology that some predict could be the biggest economic generator in history.
But no one can say yet exactly what the revolution will bring.
The agency’s commissioners Thursday unanimously approved rules that will open up little-used, high frequency airwaves for uses that could range from telecommunications to medicine, self-driving cars, factories and smart house appliances such as refrigerators that automatically reorder food once it is used.
New technology still being developed will allow more extensive use of the short waves that will greatly expand the capacity for carrying information on the new system, which will be known as 5G, for fifth generation. About every 10 years, there’s a quantum leap in wireless that moves the technology up a generation, and the fruits of this next step probably will begin rolling out in 2020.
Most consumers associate the Gs with cell phones, but it’s really a broad term for upgrades in many forms of wireless communication, including satellites. Usually the expansion coincides with the FCC making more bandwidth available.
FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler said Thursday the agency’s role will be setting guidelines to maintain competition and “turning loose the incredible innovators” who will shape what the next generation brings.
“If we’ve learned anything in the generational march through wireless connectivity, it is that we have always underestimated the innovation that would result from new generations of wireless,” Mr. Wheeler said in a speech last month to the National Press Club. “… If anyone tells you they know the details of what 5G will deliver, walk the other way.
“Our proposal is the final piece in the spectrum trifecta of low-band, mid-band and high-band airwaves that will open up unprecedented amounts of spectrum, speed the rollout of new-generation wireless networks and redefine network connectivity for years to come. I’m confident these actions will lead to a cornucopia of unanticipated innovative uses and generate 10s of billions of dollars in economic activity.”
For example, it was no surprise that 4G resulted in more speed and an explosion in wireless video. No one, though, predicted such 4G uses as Uber for ride-sharing, Snapchat or Instagram, but the improved technology not only made them possible but allowed them to thrive.
“We really are going to a new frontier and the U.S. is at the forefront of innovation,” said Richard Adler, a distinguished fellow at the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, Calif., who has written extensively about broadband technology.
“The FCC has taken a leadership position and now is standing back to see what the marketplace develops. This is really the time … when dialogue should begin on where we will end up.”
This much is known:
• 5G will be faster. Estimates say the next generation will be 10 to 100 times faster than wireless is now, meaning it will approach fiber optic speed. That would sharply reduce what is called latency, the one-hundredth of a second delay in wireless now, to less than one-thousandth of a second.
That reduction is considered vital for using wireless in such time-sensitive situations as remote surgery and self-driving cars, where it can mean the difference in beginning to stop in feet or inches.
• The new system will require more hardware to relay signals. The new frequencies that will be made available only travel short distances and often can’t penetrate buildings, so there will have to be many more relay sites.
Mr. Adler said there are about 300,000 cell towers across the country to relay signals now. The new frequencies will need millions of relays across the country, maybe several in one building, to maintain reception.
The good news is the relays likely will be about the size of a smoke detector. The bad news for operators is that equipment costs to establish networks could increase by as much as 20 percent, he said.
One key, Mr. Adler said, will be for local governments to be prepared to approve the needed relay stations. Much like when cable television came on the scene 50 years ago, companies will have to apply for permits to install the hardware and municipalities that make the process difficult could slow down innovation, he said.
“The FCC? They’ve got it. They’re out in front,” Mr. Adler said. “I would be concerned about the possibility of a local bottleneck. Most local officials right now wouldn’t have a clue what to do with this.”
Jason Davidek, executive director of the Allegheny League of Municipalities, said he would expect local officials to be receptive to changes once they receive information. The league encourages municipal officials to share ideas and develop uniform policies where possible.
For example, officials brief municipal leaders in the spring on smart meters many of them are beginning to use in the homes of customers. The meters report usage to the utility as frequently as every hour.
“I’ve been pleased with the responsiveness of the municipal stakeholders to share information and provide help to each other,” Mr. Davidek said. “That’s what I would expect with the potential benefits and impacts of this kind of technology.”
As far as what 5G might bring, Mr. Adler said he expects hospitals, factories and educational institutions to be among the first to benefit from technology, setting up limited networks for internal purposes that could range from long-distance surgery to controlling factory robots that can communicate with each other.
At least initially, Mr. Adler expects fewer changes for cell phone users. That kind of broad communication could be limited by spotty coverage as relay stations are established for specific projects.
But that hasn’t limited the interest of wireless carriers. All of the major companies have notified the FCC they would be interested in bidding on the portion of the new bands that will be auctioned off in years to come even though they haven’t revealed any future proposals.
“Who knows what they might do? Mr. Adler said. “Let innovation happen.”
Ed Blazina: eblazina@post-gazette.com or 412-253-1470.
First Published: July 17, 2016, 4:00 a.m.
