Health care is being upended and it’s having a big impact in Western Pennsylvania — with too many hospital beds and health care systems stuck on getting paid by the number of medical procedures performed rather than quality of care provided, said a health care consultant speaking at Robert Morris University earlier this week.

The number of people hospitalized will fall significantly in the years to come as more services shift to the home and a new model of health care emerges that pays doctors a flat rate for all of a patient’s care, said Barry Bittman, the keynote speaker at a lecture sponsored by RMU’s School of Nursing and Health Sciences.

His predictions for the health care industry come from practicing medicine for nearly 40 years and setting up coaching programs at Allegheny Health Network, RMU, Allegheny College and other places, meant to save scarce health care dollars while improving the quality of care.

“We have to change our priorities,” Dr. Bittman said. “We don’t know our patients and because we don’t know our patients, we don’t have a fighting chance. Time is running out.”

Studies have shown that Western Pennsylvania has too many hospital beds, and health system UPMC has said admissions overall in the region have been declining in recent years.

The former senior vice president and chief population health officer at AHN was among a half dozen or so executives who’ve retired or been furloughed by the Pittsburgh health system since John Paul was replaced as president and CEO in January. Cynthia Hundorfean replaced Mr. Paul.

Dr. Bittman, a neurologist who lives in Meadville, is CEO of the Institute of Innovative Healthcare, a consulting firm, and a senior fellow at the Estes Park Institute, a health care policy and education center located in Englewood, Colorado.

No single medical specialty has the key to solving health care’s access, cost and quality problems, and only increased collaboration will solve industry issues, Dr. Bittman said. Collaboration among doctors, a bigger role for nurses and expanded use of health care coaches to “inspire and motivate” patients outside the doctor’s office and hospital are needed.

What’s more, doctors have a responsibility to make sure that patients can afford their medications, to make sure the medical “bill doesn’t hurt more than the injection,” Dr. Bittman said.

“That eight-minute office visit isn’t going to do that,” he said.

Bundled payments to doctors for a group of medical services — something that is being tested more these days — and other cost-saving measures aren’t going to be enough, he said, predicting the emergence of capitation, where doctors receive a flat rate for all of the patient’s care.

Dr. Bittman’s address was followed by a panel discussion with Karen Hacker, director of the Allegheny County Health Department; Susan Frank, vice president of population health at AHN; Kevin Progar, project manager, Healthcare Council of Western Pennsylvania; Michael Madden, chief medical officer, Gateway Health; and Stephen Foreman, associate professor of health care administration at RMU.

Kris B. Mamula: kmamula@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1699

First Published: April 28, 2016, 4:00 a.m.