Welcome to Brian Batko’s Steelers mailbag. You can submit your questions to Brian directly @BrianBatko on X and bbatko@post-gazette.com.
Jason W: Was the Eagles game a clear indicator that we should reduce our Super Bowl aspirations? Steelers playing in Super Bowl seems about as unrealistic as us winning 10+ games with Justin Fields as the hypothetical QB1. Is there no way for us (even at full strength) to beat the Bills TD factory, Chiefs (with Mahomes healthy-ish), and the Ravens counter-punch in Baltimore? I’m already thinking it’s likely we lose the division over tiebreakers, yet another wheels-coming-off-December, and end up a wild card team for the 900th time.
Brian: First of all, the Steelers were on pace to win 10 games with Justin Fields starting, considering they were 4-2 before going to Russell Wilson, so not sure what that’s all about. As for what happened in Philadelphia, I understand it wasn't a very good showing.
Now, I think we’re singing a different tune if not for the rarest of rare Najee Harris fumbles, and the final yardage totals were so lopsided in large part because of that absurd 99-yard drive for the Eagles to close out the game (88 net yards gained), but I digress. I went into this three-game stretch of Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs thinking it’d be the ultimate pre-playoffs measuring stick for the Steelers, but the injuries to George Pickens and DeShon Elliott — which are of the more finicky, short-term variety than anything season-altering — had me backing off of that thought because it’s just not an accurate reflection of the team they should have come January.
Strictly from a literal standpoint, there’s no bearing that playing the Eagles could possibly have on a team being an AFC championship contender. Obviously, if they cross the Philadelphia bridge again, you’ll be so ecstatic that the Steelers are playing in the Super Bowl that blocking Nolan Smith or covering A.J. Brown will be deep on your back burner.
Dealing with the Bills or the Chiefs is a whole other issue, of course. And it’s not one the Steelers have dealt with well in their past two trips to the postseason. But the Eagles are a different team than those two. They’re also less familiar with the Steelers and vice versa. Can we see how the Steelers do against a juiced-up Ravens team eager to protect its house and the Chiefs with a potentially less-than-100% Patrick Mahomes before we go full-on sky-is-falling mode?
Josh M: Have you looked into the percentage chances of converting 1st and 30 v 2nd and 20? One of the big decisions of the game that I have not heard as much about was Tomlin’s decision to decline the penalty in the second half and take 2nd and 20 over 1st and 30. I was screaming at the TV as soon as I heard that decision and my instinct was right about 30 seconds later when the Eagles converted – and then managed to eat a ton of clock and score. Ten yard holding calls are huge drive killers and Steelers were gifted with two back-to-back. At 1st and 30, you would have to think the offense is just going to call a draw or something simple to focus on getting some yards back for space and field position – it would be tough to make up nearly 1/3 of the length of the field for a first down. At 2nd and 20, teams will try some high percentage pass plays and give their guys space to run to see what happens. Why would Tomlin ever not take 1st and 30? I know we can’t be sure that Eagles would not have converted, but in my mind that was a huge decision that would have given the Steelers the ball back with momentum from end of the first half. It completely changed the tone of the second half.
Brian: I looked into it just for you, Josh, because that’s how I treat the readers and writers of my mailbag. My sports analytics connection whom I trust ran it through some calculations and tells me it was effectively a toss-up between the two options.
In Mike Tomlin’s defense, I didn’t have a huge issue with that one. If you back them up 10 more yards and they hit the same 20-yard pass play on 1st-and-30, then everyone’s wondering why he didn’t take the loss of down to try to get off the field early in the second half.
But overall, I understand fans having a certain level of frustration with Tomlin’s clock management and other strategic decisions in that game. His explanation of being too caught up in information to expediently call a timeout should be all the proof the Steelers need to add another assistant to his staff this offseason and insist the head coach leans on that person to some degree for in-game operations.
The Ravens famously (by NFL standards) have a man named Daniel Stern who holds the title of director of football strategy/assistant quarterbacks coach, and his duties include “advising head coach John Harbaugh on in-game clock/game management and coaches' challenges.” That doesn't mean Harbaugh always gets it right, but I applaud them on their process in an effort to have an advantage in that department.
Jeff G: BB, regarding the 4th and 7 last game, the swirling question has been, “why are we giving it back to the Eagles’ O…we can’t stop them?”. Using that philosophy down 2 TDs, why not have Tomlin throw a white flag on the field, then take his team into the locker room? Just surrender right there. There was no way we were going to win no matter what. To me, punting showed trust in his D which is why they love playing for him. Pinning them deep, and thinking the D that is #1 in the NFL at forcing turnovers, didn’t seem like surrendering to me.
Brian: Eh, those types of decisions always strike me as circular logic to some extent. The Steelers sacrificed the potential to keep that drive alive (and maybe score points to make it a one-possession game again) with that punt. Couldn't one argue that Tomlin would also be trusting his defense if they get stopped and need to stop the Eagles on a short field?
I didn’t like that move by Tomlin but not because of any gut feeling. That’s not really how I roll. As you might be able to discern from my last answer, I tend to be more analytical in my in-game thinking, and based on one quantitative model out there, the Steelers had no business punting if they wanted to win that game.
The “Surrender Index” gave that choice to punt a rating of 16.53, which put it in the 98th percentile of “cowardly punts” for this season and the 95th percentile of all punts since 1999. And if you think I’m just being a nerd, Tom Brady’s instinct was to go for it, as well, as he mentioned on the broadcast.
Jim R: Players acquired at the trade deadline are just now getting acclimated to their new teams. Can you elaborate on why it seems like football players take longer to adjust to a new team than athletes who get traded mid-season in other sports?
Brian: This might sound simplistic, but in football, a new acquisition has to learn an entire playbook (or at least close to it) and doesn’t have the benefit of the entire installation process many of his teammates went through in training camp or even dating to OTAs. You bring in someone from the outside in basketball and OK, you’ll need to learn some plays or maybe even an entire system of offense, but there are fewer moving parts.
I won't pretend to know much about hockey, but the same general notion applies — fewer bodies on the field of play, less overall volume of scripted action, etc. And baseball? Well, it’s a complex game, but the roles don’t exactly change much from one team to another.
Lastly, there’s just not as much time or margin for error in the NFL when you’re trying to integrate a new piece. One loss can be the difference between winning or losing a division, making or missing the playoffs. The other sports have more games and inherently a little more time to learn on the job when you change teams.
Bobby B: Just me Or do you pick up OBJ and pray? Or is it more likely that the Steelers ride with what they have despite there being some level of prayer involved for optimal performance? Follow... does OBJ have outstanding health issues, has he lost it, or did he just not fit in Miami?
Brian: Odell Beckham Jr. could barely get on the field for a team that was in the thick of pursuing a playoff spot and in need of any firepower it could get to make it there. And the Dolphins cut him loose. He’s 32, hasn't consistently produced over the course of a season since that Super Bowl run following the 2021 regular season.
And to go back to Jim’s question, look how long it’s taking the Steelers to get Mike Williams buckled in on their moving train. I have zero interest in going down that road with another receiver, albeit a big name. From what I can tell, he has health issues, he’s lost it and he didn’t fit in Miami. No thanks.
First Published: December 19, 2024, 10:30 a.m.
Updated: December 20, 2024, 3:18 a.m.