In the spring of 2021, 128 college underclassmen declared early for the NFL draft and 100 were selected. Players were flocking to the league in record numbers to cash in and live out their dreams of playing professional football.
A few months later, the NCAA approved its Name, Image and Likeness policy, opening the door for college athletes to get paid for their services. The decision has changed college football forever, but it’s also having a ripple effect on the NFL.
This year, only 58 underclassmen declared for the draft. The reason is simple: NIL deals become richer and richer by the year and give college players a chance to have the best of both worlds.
“Let’s face it, the NFL is not a guarantee,” said Johnny Petrishen, a Central Catholic High School graduate who played linebacker at Penn State from 2015-18 and at Pitt from 2019-21. “And it’s hard to beat that college lifestyle with the NIL money being what it is. That appeals to a lot of players. Before, guys were in a hurry to get to the NFL. You don’t see that anymore. It makes total sense to stay.”
The top college quarterbacks earn over $1 million or more per year, and six-figure NIL deals are now the norm for other top players regardless of position. College players have more leverage against their schools than ever, too.
The transfer portal, which came into existence in 2018 and allows players to move freely from team to team without penalty, is being used as a bargaining chip to enhance financial packages. Players have the choice of leaving for a different school if they offer more money, or they can force their current school to sweeten the deal.
Petrishen’s final season at Pitt in 2021 was the first year players could earn NIL money. He said he’s already seen a seismic shift in the world of college football.
“When NIL started, I never thought it would get to where it is now,” Petrishen said. “The quarterbacks and receivers, the guys who were marketable, were getting most of it. For a linebacker like me, I might get a few free pizzas or free protein shakes. Don’t get me wrong, it was nice not having to pay for that stuff, but we weren’t getting cars or anything like they are today.
“It’s the wild, wild west now. Anything goes. There are no regulations.”
The spending spree by the nation’s top programs has made the NFL a less attractive option for younger players who aren’t can’t-miss NFL prospects. The top college underclassmen who receive first- and second-round grades are still entering the draft, but underclassmen that don’t receive those grades from the college advisory committee — a group of NFL front office evaluators and national scouting services — are returning to school because they know they can make money there without the pressure of the professional game.
The average length of an NFL playing career is a little more than three years, and most rookies make less than $1 million per season — and that’s if they make the 53-man roster. It’s much less if they’re on the practice squad.
“Personally, I think it’s a good thing for players,” ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller said. “Instead of having to make a decision about going in early and maybe being a late-round pick, now they have the opportunity to go back to school, support yourself — and your family, if you’re taking care of them — and improve your draft stock.”
Miller cited the example of LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who is regarded as one of the top three quarterbacks in this year’s draft and a likely top-10 pick. If Daniels would have come out early last year, he would have been a Day 3 pick.
For NFL general managers, however, they’ll be selecting from a pool of players that lacks the depth more recent draft classes have boasted.
“I don’t want to say it’s a weak draft or a bad draft, but compared to last year, which was maybe the deepest draft I ever covered, it’s shallower,” Miller said. “It’s something that goes in waves. Last year was incredibly deep. Next year will probably be incredibly deep. Smart GMs will take advantage of the way the value system works this year.”
That might mean trading a pick in this year’s draft for a pick next year, or it could mean moving up in the first or second round to get the marquee players that will not be available after the first two days.
But overall, the belief among NFL executives is the advent of NIL will be a positive development for the league because front offices will have a more seasoned and mature group of players to scout in the pre-draft process.
“I think they're excited about the future of it,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “I think we're in the middle year now where we don't have that influx of juniors, but we don't have some of the top guys from the previous year because it's just this new phenomenon. I think it's made this year's group a little light.
“I think next year, what we're going to end up doing is having a more experienced draft class, which I think is good for everybody. It's good for the player. He gets more development there. He finishes college. That's great for them. It's great for the college coaches. They have older, more mature players that are experienced. It works for evaluators, where there's more canvas to look at there. There's more to evaluate. There's more of a track record, good or bad. That makes it easier for them. I think it's great all the way around.”
Ray Fittipaldo: rfittipaldo@post-gazette.com and on X @rayfitt1
First Published: February 25, 2024, 10:30 a.m.
Updated: February 26, 2024, 2:10 p.m.
