The Steelers have signed the bulk of their free agent class for 2023 over the past week. Here’s a look at how the new faces stack up analytically, using grades from Pro Football Focus, the scouting service that grades players on every snap of every game using a 1-100 scale. You can learn more about the methodology here.
Patrick Peterson (80.7 overall grade) — Some fans have been concerned about Peterson’s lack of positional versatility compared to Cam Sutton, the guy whose roster spot Peterson took after Sutton signed with Detroit last week. They also wonder if Peterson can remain effective now that he’s 33. The analytics, however, show that he can still be really good when deployed in the right role, which is mostly coverage on the outside. His 82.5 score in that area on a bad Minnesota defense was really good, as were the underlying stats. Opponents completed just 58.9% of their passes against him for a 524 yards and a passer rating of 66.8. Even better, he was rarely beaten for major yards after the catch, allowing just 194 for the entire year. All the while, he picked off five passes and notched nine pass breakups, the best number of a career that could put him in the Pro Football Hall of Fame some day. If there’s a red flag anywhere in his stat profile, it’s that the preceding three years were not nearly as good. His best overall grade in that span was 68.6, and his best coverage grade was 64.3. Not terrible, but they definitely paint a picture of a player in some level of decline, so it will be incumbent upon defensive coordinator Teryl Austin to deploy Peterson in favorable matchups where he can be a difference maker.
Cole Holcomb (66.6 overall grade in 2022) — The thing that jumps off the page about the former Commanders linebacker is his consistent track record of solid production against the run — especially compared to Robert Spillane, Devin Bush and Myles Jack, the guys he’s principally replacing in the Steelers’ defense. In four seasons, he’s never posted a run defense score below 61.8. Bush and Spillane, meanwhile, finished below that number in six of their combined eight seasons in Pittsburgh. Granted, Spillane’s score of 77.3 in that category was significantly better than Holcomb’s 69.3. But Holcomb has regularly scored solidly in the 60s, a sign fans can expect him to be less erratic. Also noteworthy are his 43 stops in his last fully healthy season of 2021. PFF defines those as plays that result in failures for the opposing offense, and the group of former Steelers never produced many. Bush had 47 as a rookie but never more than 27 since. Spillane peaked at 25 in 2022. And Jack managed just 28 in his one year here, so all signs point toward Holcomb having a chance to be more active. Coverage is a bit of a concern — he gave up 60 receptions for 600 yards and 300 yards after the catch on 78 targets in 2021. But again, he grades no worse in that category than the former Steelers he’s replacing.
Elandon Roberts (57.1 overall grade) — The package here isn’t nearly as attractive as Holcomb’s. His run defense scores are consistently a bit better than what Bush, Spillane and Jack were offering the Steelers. He was at 68.5 this year and has spent most of his career in the 60s range. If he’s deployed in the right ways, he could be effective in a run defense role. But unlike with Holcomb, there are pretty glaring red flags, too. Tackling is at the top of this list. His missed tackle percentage has been 17.3, 18.8 and 12.7 over the past three years. That’s led to bad tackling scores of 36.8, 46.4 and 56.4 over that span. He’s been quite rough in coverage, too, posting scores of 26.7, 53.6 and 43.1 while in Miami. He’s allowed at least a 70% completion percentage against and passer ratings of at least 85.8 against through his entire seven-year career. This past season, he allowed 87.8% of passes to connect and an opposing passer rating of 113.6. That’s simply not good enough, so the Steelers will have to hope they can find something in him that the Dolphins could not for this signing to work out.
Nate Herbig (58.0 overall score) – Before 2022, this veteran had never posted an overall score below 68.1; a run blocking score below 67.2; or a pass blocking score below 63.9. Those numbers all came in Philadelphia before he took a decided step back with the New York Jets in 2022, scoring no better than 58.6 in any of those categories while playing the second-most snaps of his career. The one constant is that he’s done a pretty good job of handling pass pressure. He’s allowed just four sacks across nearly 1,300 pass blocking snaps. That’s pretty good. He’s also never allowed more than four QB hits, 19 hurries or 21 total pressures in a season. Basically, he has the profile of a guy who has a chance to bounce back and take on a starting role. At the very least, he would appear to be a valuable depth piece for a line that hasn’t had many in recent years.
Isaac Seumalo (75.2 overall score) – The veteran guard’s playing time has vacillated pretty wildly since he arrived in the league in 2016. He’s played more than 1,200 snaps twice but fewer than 600 in every other season. That makes it hard to compare his performance year to year. That said, his numbers have been very good in the biggest sample sizes. He’s never scored worse than 67.2 in any of the major grade categories — overall, run blocking and pass blocking. And this past season, his pass blocking score was a robust 79.1 with just 20 pressures allowed in 653 pass blocking snaps. Run blocking, meanwhile, is the place he has the chance to make the biggest difference. Incumbents Kevin Dotson and James Daniels have never scored better than 61.1 in that category for the Steelers, but Seumalo has been at 67.2 or better in five of his seven seasons. So he has a chance to be a pretty major upgrade from what the Steelers have had in that area in the recent past.
Adam Bittner: abittner@post-gazette.com and Twitter @fugimaster24.
First Published: March 21, 2023, 9:30 a.m.