With 63 games remaining, there are about 9 quintillion different ways the NFL regular season can end. There are only slightly fewer ways the postseason field can unfold, but suffice it to say, the Steelers aren’t darlings of the playoff simulators that populate sports websites.
The Steelers have a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs, according to The New York Times, to which Steelers safety Miles Killebrew responded: “So you’re saying there’s a chance.”
He was dead serious. The Steelers won’t be officially eliminated from playoff contention until the math says so, and final tenths of those percentage points could dwindle to zero this weekend if the Steelers lose to the Panthers on Sunday afternoon in Charlotte.
The chances of Steelers coach Mike Tomlin securing a 16th consecutive non-losing season are similarly low. Unless the Steelers run the table in the final four games, or go 3-0-1, Tomlin’s NFL record streak will come to an end.
Tomlin set the record last year when the Steelers went 9-7-1, besting the record Marty Schottenheimer set when he had 14 consecutive non-losing seasons to begin his head coaching career in stints with the Browns and Chiefs. Schottenheimer, a native of McDonald, resigned from the Chiefs following his first losing season in 1998 and later called the decision his greatest regret.
Schottenheimer would go on to coach six more seasons with the Commanders and Chargers, going 55-41 while enduring only one more losing season before he retired following a 14-2 regular season with the Chargers in 2006.
Some of the game’s all-time coaching giants endured several losing seasons. Bill Belichick has six losing seasons on his 28-year head coaching resume, most of them with Cleveland, where he started his career. Former Steelers coaches Chuck Noll and Bill Cowher, both of whom are enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, had 10 losing seasons between them in their combined 38 seasons — seven for Noll and three for Cowher.
“I take a lot of pride in trying to make sure Mike Tomlin never has a losing season,” veteran tight end Zach Gentry said. “That’s selfishly important to me. We want to continue to keep alive that streak for him and this organization. We all have a certain level of respect for coach Tomlin. I think it’s a pretty neat run he has going. We don’t want to be the group that ends it.”
If the Steelers are eliminated this weekend, it would be the earliest they’ve been knocked out in almost two decades. In 2003, following a loss to the Jets, the Steelers played two meaningless games to end the regular season.
There is a chance the Steelers could play three meaningless games this season. That hasn’t happened since 1988 when the Steelers started 2-10 and finished with a 5-11 record.
While this might be atypical for the Steelers, it’s quite common in other cities across the league. Some current members of the Steelers previously played on teams that were eliminated from playoff contention by Thanksgiving.
When center Mason Cole was a rookie with the Arizona Cardinals in 2018, they lost six of their first seven games and finished 3-13. The next season, they weren’t much better, finishing 5-10-1. The playoffs might no longer be a realistic goal, but Cole said players have an obligation to have a professional approach when seasons don’t unfold as planned.
"It's a job, man,” said Cole, the starting center. “It's what we get paid to do. There's no time to slack off and to feel bad for yourself. Whether you're in it or you're not in it, if it's close or it's not close, we get paid to perform and paid to win games and do the best we can. We've got no other choice but to do that."
Killebrew, who played his first five seasons in the NFL with the Detroit Lions, said the stability inside the Steelers organization makes this process easier. In some NFL cities, losing can become ingrained as losing seasons mount.
“The true mark of a professional is the guy who comes to work the same every day,” said Killebrew, who endured four losing seasons with the Lions, including a three-win season in 2019. “I’m thankful we are in a position where we don’t necessarily have to come to work and expect things to be any different. From leadership on down, this building is filled with professionals in that sense. We come to work. We do what’s expected of us, and we do it with a smile on our face regardless of the record.
“We have a short memory in this business. It’s not necessarily dwelling on the negative things that happened this season but learning from previous games and taking that into the next one. There are lessons to be learned in this game, and that’s one of them. You don’t get too high. You don’t get too low. You just remain consistent, put your head down and work.”
Receiver Steven Sims began his career in Washington, which has been down this road many times in the past couple of decades. In 2019, Sims’ rookie season, the Commanders lost 9 of their first 10 and finished with only three victories.
"There are always ups and downs with this game,” Sims said. “We learn that at a young age. You win the Super Bowl some years; some years you're terrible.”
Ray Fittipaldo: rfittipaldo@post-gazette.com and Twitter @rayfitt1.
First Published: December 17, 2022, 10:30 a.m.
Updated: December 17, 2022, 1:07 p.m.
