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Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt (90) puts his helmet on during an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts, Monday, Nov. 28, 2022, in Indianapolis.
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Football betting trends: Will the Steelers go over another low total?

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Football betting trends: Will the Steelers go over another low total?

Looking to place a wager on some football games this weekend? The Post-Gazette has all the information you need to make picks in key contests, locally and nationally. Here’s the outlook for games Dec. 1-5.

Odds are current as of Wednesday afternoon, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Historical information is from Odds Shark. Public betting info is from VSiN.

Steelers at Atlanta

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Spread: Atlanta, -1

Moneyline: Atlanta -115, Steelers -105

Over/under: 42

Trends: The Steelers are drawing 52% of the bets but 64% of the money wagered in the spread market, a sign bigger bettors are favoring them. … There’s also sharp action on the under, which accounts for 65% of the handle in the total market on just 48% of the bets. … The over has cashed in five of the Steelers’ six games this season when the total has closed at 43 points or less. … The Falcons have been a weak spread bet lately, dropping five of their past six contests against the spread. … The Steelers have covered against two of their three NFC opponents in 2022.

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Thursday Night Football - Buffalo at New England

Spread: Buffalo, -4

Moneyline: Buffalo -195, New England +165

Over/under: 43.5

Trends: Big bettors are noticeably fading the Bills, who account for 76% of the bets but just 61% of the handle in the spread market. .. Sharps are breaking hard on the under here, too. It’s drawing 44% of the money on 30% of the total bets. ... However, four of the past five meetings between these division opponents have gone over a total of 43.5 points.

Kansas City at Cincinnati

Spread: Kansas City, -1.5

Moneyline: Kansas City -135, Cincinnati +115

Over/under: 53

Trends: The Chiefs are a strong public side in the spread market with 83% of the bets and 89% of the money, so the Bengals could have value here as a chance to bet with the house. The same is true of the under in the total market, where 84% of the bets and 87% of the handle are landing on the over. … The Bengals have covered in eight of their past nine games. … The under has cashed in four of the Chiefs’ past six games.

Sunday Night Football - Indianapolis at Dallas

Spread: Dallas, -11

Moneyline: Dallas -490, Indianapolis +390

Over/under: 43.5

Trends: Another popular under with big bettors. They’re hammering it with 55% of the money on just 44% of the wagers. … The under has cashed in nine of the Colts’ 11 games this season. … The Cowboys are 4-2 against the spread at home this season.

Monday Night Football - New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Spread: Tampa Bay, -4

Moneyline: Tampa Bay -205, New Orleans +175

Over/under: 40.5

Trends: Sharps are fading the Buccaneers here. They’re drawing 62% of the bets but just 50% of the cash in the spread market. … A possible good reason for that lack of confidence? Tampa Bay is a ghastly 1-7-1 against the spread in its past nine games. … The under has cashed in four of the Saints’ past five games.

Pac-12 championship - No. 4 USC vs. No. 12 Utah

Spread: USC, -3

Moneyline: USC -150, Utah +130

Over/under: 68

Trends: The Trojans are a significant public side with 81% of the spread bets and 79% of the handle, giving the Utes some possible value as a bet with the house when their win against USC earlier this season is considered. … Sharps are breaking sharply toward the over in the total market. It’s drawing 71% of the bets but 87% of the cash. …The under has cashed in four of Utah’s past five games, but that previous meeting between these two teams finished with a total of 85 points.

SEC championship - No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 11 LSU

Spread: Georgia, -17.5

Moneyline: Georgia -950, LSU +650

Over/under: 51

Trends: Sharps are strongly backing Georgia here with 61% of the handle on just 34% of the bets. … The over is another notable public side with 82% of the bets and 77% of the handle, so the house will be rooting for the under. … However, the over has cashed in five of the Tigers’ past six games.

Big 12 championship - No. 3 TCU vs. No. 13 Kansas State

Spread: TCU, -2.5

Moneyline: TCU -135, Kansas State +115

Over/under: 61.5

Trends: The house will be behind the Wildcats here, as they’re drawing just 22% of the bets and handle in the spread market. … It’s a similar story for the under in the total market, where the over is currently drawing 83% of the bets and 90% of the cash. Both public sides prevailed in the first matchup. … The Horned Frogs have dropped just two games against the spread all season.

ACC championship - No. 10 Clemson vs. No. 24 North Carolina

Spread: Clemson, -7.5

Moneyline: Clemson -300, North Carolina +250

Over/under: 63

Trends: The over gets the nod from sharps here. It’s drawing 69% of the total cash on 59% of the beys. … The Tar Heels are 3-0 against the spread as an underdog this season. … The under has cashed in four of North Carolina’s six games away from home this season.

Big Ten championship - No. 2 Michigan vs. Purdue

Spread: Michigan, -17

Moneyline: Michigan -850, Purdue +600

Over/under: 52

Trends: The smart money is strongly behind Michigan, which is drawing 90% of the cash in the spread market on 73% of the bets. … Some sharps are also favoring the under. It’s drawing nearly a third of the handle on just 17% of the bets. … Despite winning the West division, the Boilermakers have covered just twice in the second half of the season.

Adam Bittner: abittner@post-gazette.com and Twitter @fugimaster24.

First Published: December 1, 2022, 10:30 a.m.

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