Looking to place a wager on some football games this weekend? The Post-Gazette has all the information you need to make picks in key contests, locally and nationally. Here’s the outlook for games Sept. 8-12.
Odds are current as of Wednesday afternoon, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Historical information is from Odds Shark. Public betting info is from Action Network.
Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Cincinnati, -6.5
Moneyline: Cincinnati -280, Steelers +235
Over/under: 44
Trends: The under is drawing just 48% of the bets but 67% of the cash wagered, a sign bigger bettors expect a lower-scoring game. ... The Steelers were 6-5 against the spread as underdogs last season. ... However, the Bengals have covered in each of their last eight games, including their Super Bowl loss to the Los Angeles Rams to end last season. ... The under has hit in each of the Bengals last five games and in seven of their past nine. ... On the other hand, the over has hit in five of the Steelers’ past six road games.
Top props
Pat Freiermuth, anytime touchdown scorer (+235) — The Steelers tight end scored in both of his team’s games against Cincinnati last season as a rookie.
Najee Harris over/under 60.5 rushing yards — The Steelers running back failed to reach this number in both games against the Bengals last season. His combined total for both games was just 63 yards.
Ja’Marr Chase over/under 72.5 receiving yards — The Bengals receiver likewise failed to reach this total in either of his two games against the Steelers, generating totals of 39 and 65 yards.
No. 24 Tennessee at No. 17 Pitt
Spread: Tennessee, -6.5
Moneyline: Tennessee -245, Pitt +205
Over/under: 67
Trends: The total is high, but these teams combined for 75 points in their meeting last season in Knoxville. ... The over is drawing 61% of the bets but 82% of the cash, a sign big bettors expect history to repeat itself. ... The over has hit in each of the Volunteers’ past seven games. ... Pitt has failed to cover in three of its past four home games following its spread loss against West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl. ... Tennessee was 2-3 against the spread in road and neutral-site games last season.
Ohio at Penn State
Spread: Penn State, -24.5
Moneyline: Penn State -2800, Ohio +1300
Over/under: 54
Trends: The Bobcats won straight up in their last visit to Beaver Stadium in 2012. ... The over is drawing 70% of the bets but just 38% of the money wagered, a sign big bettors are fading the public on the total. ... The over hit in Ohio’s opener, but the under hit in seven of its last nine games to close 2021. ... Penn State has covered in three of its last four games as a favorite. ... However, Ohio has covered in three of its past four road games.
Kansas at West Virginia
Spread: West Virginia, -13.5
Moneyline: West Virginia -500, Kansas +400
Over/under: 59.5
Trends: The Mountaineers were 4-2 against the spread at home last season. ... The sharks like the under here, too, as it’s drawing 86% of the money in the total market on just 38% of the wagers. ... The smart money is also backing Kansas on the spread, where the Jayhawks have 60% of the money behind them on just 30% of the bets. ... It likely helps that Kansas has covered in five of its last seven games. ... The Mountaineers have won by fewer than 13.5 points in two of the past three meetings between these conference foes.
Thursday Night Football — Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Buffalo, -2
Moneyline: Buffalo -130, Los Angeles +130
Over/under: 51.5
Trends: The Bills are drawing 72% of the spread money on just 56% of the wagers, so sharks like them a bit more than the public. ... The Bills dropped just one of their last six games against the spread to close 2021. ... The under hit in five of the Rams’ last eight games on their run to a Super Bowl title last season.
Sunday Night Football — Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Tampa Bay, -2.5
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -140, Dallas +120
Over/under: 51
Trends: The Cowboys have covered in five of their past seven games. ... The under has been an even stronger bet of late, hitting in nine of the past 12 Dallas games. ... Perhaps it’s no surprise the under is the hot bet for sharks, then. It’s drawing 96% of the cash on 65% of the total bets.
Monday Night Football — Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Denver, -6.5
Moneyline: Denver -285, Seattle +240
Over/under: 45
Trends: The under has hit in seven of Denver’s past 10 games. ... Conversely, the over has hit in five of Seattle’s past six games. Notably, quarterback Russell Wilson has moved from the latter team to the former team this offseason. ... The Broncos have dropped five of their past six road games against the spread.
No. 20 Kentucky at No. 12 Florida
Spread: Florida, -6
Moneyline: Florida -210, Kentucky +180
Over/under: 52.5
Trends: Florida’s win against Utah last Saturday snapped a seven-game losing streak against the spread. ... Just one of the past six games between the teams has been decided by fewer than seven points, and just one of the past five games has gone over a total of 52.5 points.
No. 9 Baylor at No. 21 BYU
Spread: BYU, -3.5
Moneyline: BYU -170, Baylor +145
Over/under: 53.5
Trends: Baylor stayed hot against the spread in its opener. The Bears have now covered in eight of their past 10 games. ... The Cougars, meanwhile, entered this season having failed to cover in six of their last eight to finish 2021, though they hit as 11.5-point favorites in their opener against South Florida. ... The under has cashed in six of Baylor’s past eight games.
Adam Bittner: abittner@post-gazette.com and Twitter @fugimaster24.
First Published: September 8, 2022, 9:30 a.m.
