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Steelers mailbag: How are those playoff odds looking now?

Matt Freed/Post-Gazette

Steelers mailbag: How are those playoff odds looking now?

Welcome to Brian Batko’s Steelers mailbag. You’re more than welcome to email him at bbatko@post-gazette.com, tweet him @BrianBatko or slide into his DMs to inquire about the Steelers, NFL or anything out of bounds.

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Jim A: Assuming it takes 10 wins, what odds do you put on the Steelers making the playoffs? I’ll give them victories in the next two to put them at 6-3 so they need to go .500 over the final 8 games to make the cut. That likely means they need 3 wins at home against the Browns, Ravens, and Titans which isn’t as daunting as it was to begin the season. They’ll need one more on the road against the Bengals, Chargers, Chiefs, or Vikings. Minnesota seems most likely, but the others don’t look as hard as they did a few weeks ago. I’ll put the odds at 70/30. Too optimistic?

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Brian: Geez, Jim, what do you think I am, a calculator? I’m going to defer to people who get paid to put odds on such things and tell you that ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Steelers a projected 9-8 record and thus a 43% playoff chance. That validates your estimation that 10 wins gets them in, and removing math from the equation, my brain tells me that nine might even do it in such an uninspiring AFC pecking order.

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The FPI projections actually give the Steelers a slightly better chance of going 9-8 than New England, but have the Patriots with higher playoff odds, which makes me scratch my head a bit. They have the Bills, Titans, Ravens and Chargers winning their divisions, with the Raiders, Bengals and Patriots sneaking in as wild cards. So, yes, you might be too optimistic at 70% there, Jim.

But you’re right that making the postseason suddenly seems a lot less daunting. Part of that is the Steelers reeling off three straight wins with what appears to be a great chance at five in a row. Other factors include the Chiefs continuing to struggle; the Titans losing Derrick Henry; the Raiders being dealt two humongous obstacles; the Chargers looking mediocre; and the Browns doing Browns things again. Even the Bengals might turn back into a pumpkin, if the Jets loss is a sign of things to come.

If nothing else, there isn’t a matchup left on the schedule that looks unwinnable for the Steelers. Going into the year, the Chiefs game had that feel. Now, it will be a matter of them playing consistently good, complementary football the rest of the way, something we all know has eluded them the last three seasons down the stretch.

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Mike P: I keep hearing people like Roethlisberger say "the offense is coming along" or saying they knew it was going to take time before they figured it out. Well... isn't that what the preseason is for? I know there's the injury risk and that's huge, but you have four games that you could use to figure things out. Play your starters a half in each game, let them get that experience when it doesn't count instead of getting the experience while losing real games. Now, if the argument is the oline wasn't healthy until the end of preseason, I get it. But I can't help but feel that time together in preseason games could have helped this offense the way I've seen them grow in the last few games.

Brian: If there were ever a year to make this argument, it’s this one. New offensive coordinator, three new linemen, new running back, new tight end. I didn't feel it was a huge deal at the time that Ben Roethlisberger wasn't playing more in the preseason, but I did think it would make sense to get him snaps in two games instead of one.

Then again, to be fair, in addition to the injury risk you could argue that those reps aren't the same as playing in the regular season. You’re facing lesser defenses, vanilla schemes ... things of that nature. Here’s another interesting stat: The only two established NFL starters who threw more passes than Ben Roethlisberger in the preseason? That would be Patrick Mahomes, who started hot but is tailing off lately, and Josh Allen, who couldn’t outduel Roethlisberger in Week 1. Mahomes played in all three preseason games and Allen played the whole first half in Buffalo’s final exhibition.

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It’s also worth keeping in mind that preseason games are only part of the “team-building process,” as Mike Tomlin calls it. Training camp practices are significant in their own right, and Roethlisberger took part in most of those. We’ve just gone through a weeklong news cycle of fans thumbing their nose at the idea of risking the kicker’s health on a trick play, so it would be a bit hypocritical to ask for more of the starters in fake games.

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Ed B: On the fake field-goal attempts do you think a roughing-the-passer penalty should have been called on Boswell? On that play Boz is the passer, correct? It is one of those plays where as a fan you're angry because it didn't work but if they would have scored there it would have been the greatest call ever! LOL I just wanted to get your thoughts on the play and the possible non-call.

Brian: Yes, on review, I think it should’ve been called. But I’ve heard a couple former Steelers on 93.7 The Fan over the last two days who weren’t as convinced — or at least can see what the officials saw (or didn’t see). Arthur Moats made a good point that if that call had been made against Browns defensive tackle Jordan Elliott, it would’ve bailed out the Steelers from a poorly executed, possibly ill-timed trick play. It’s not difficult for me to imagine a world in which that call is made against the Steelers after they shut down a fake field goal and fans have the exact opposite reaction.

And Chris Hoke’s observation was that, in real time, it just looked like Elliott came in and pushed Boswell with two hands, nothing over-the-top. As referee Shawn Hochuli said postgame, after the play, you can’t review a play and add a roughing-the-passer call. Like it or not, it’s a judgment call. And I think 2019 showed us the perils of making all penalties reviewable.

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Tom in Dallas: In the second half, when Harvin was kicking off, does he have the option to just punt the ball and not tie it up? I would think, a punter, holding the ball (not having to catch a hiked ball) and no oncoming rush, can kick the ball further than he might under normal 4th down conditions. And based on the kicks he did do, would his punts have been better, maybe longer, and certainly higher allowing time for the coverage to reach the receiver?

Brian: No, that’s not an option for a kickoff. You can only do that after a safety, at which time you actually aren’t allowed to use a tee, which is why you see those punted all the time. As for whether Pressley Harvin would’ve been better at that than kicking off the tee ... yeah, probably. He just didn't have much experience at the latter. When I did a story on Harvin in the offseason, his kicking coach told me they worked on kickoffs, which he didn’t do in college, to help make him more versatile for NFL teams. But, clearly, that wasn’t something he was practicing much, if at all, once he got to Pittsburgh.

The first kickoff, which went out of bounds, was a Murphy’s Law moment. But his second one actually wasn’t half-bad. It was shorter than you usually see from real kickers, fielded at the 10, but it was high enough that the Browns only got 10 yards on the return. Nice adjustment on that by Harvin, actually, though everyone probably hopes he’ll never have to do that again.

Brian Batko: bbatko@post-gazette.com and Twitter @BrianBatko.

First Published: November 4, 2021, 12:50 p.m.
Updated: November 4, 2021, 3:17 p.m.

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