The only three quarterbacks to win four Super Bowls have very different NFL draft resumes. Terry Bradshaw was the No. 1 overall pick in 1970. Joe Montana was picked in the third round in the 1979 draft, and Tom Brady was picked in the sixth round in 2000.
In the NFL, Brady and Montana are the exceptions to the rule. When teams search for their next franchise quarterback, they usually don’t stumble into them in the later rounds of the draft. The majority of the time they must invest a first-round pick to acquire one.
The later rounds are more likely to produce Tee Martin, Brian St. Pierre, Omar Jacobs and Dennis Dixon. All four were fifth-round picks of the Steelers in the past 15 years and never amounted to anything more than a second- or third-stringer. In Jacobs’ case, not even that.
With Ben Roethlisberger turning 34 in March and Landry Jones as the only other quarterback under contract, there is a chance the Steelers will use a draft pick on a quarterback next week. But he won’t be viewed as the replacement for Roethlisberger, who has four years remaining on his contract.
So why use a valuable pick on a player who likely won’t develop into a starter?
“Quarterbacks in the middle to late rounds, they’re lottery tickets,” said Dane Brugler, a draft analyst for nfldraftscout.com. “You never know when you might hit on a guy who you bring in and develop.”
Former Washington and Houston general manager Charley Casserly knows that better than anyone. When he was assistant general manager under Bobby Beathard in 1986, the Redskins used a sixth-round draft choice on Mark Rypien, who five years later led the franchise to its third Super Bowl victory in a 10-year period.
“When you get to that point in the draft, you’re looking for the guy to have one characteristic,” Casserly said. “He had a major-league arm. Others might have mobility or accuracy. You’re looking for one thing that you can work with.”
But even those players with one desirable skill have a low success rate. NFL statistics show sixth-round picks have a 9 percent chance to develop into a starter.
Think about that for a second. The odds were less than 10 percent that Brady would become a starter in the NFL, much less win four Super Bowls for the New England Patriots.
Rob Rang, the senior draft analyst for nfldraftscout.com, said the smart teams look for quarterbacks with potential, not necessarily production, in the middle and later rounds. That’s an important distinction with the way college football is played today. Some quarterbacks can post gaudy statistics in a spread offense and lead their team to victories at the college level, but their skill set might not translate to the NFL.
“When you draft a quarterback in the middle rounds, you want to draft a guy with physical upside that is worthy of developing,” Rang said. “Sometimes fans want to push for the guy who was successful in college, but the better NFL teams look at upside and [draft] on potential.
“I think what gets overlooked is that third-string guys don’t get very many snaps with the offense in practice. The reality is they don’t get a lot of time. These guys have to have extraordinary work ethic and mind for the game if they’re going to be successful.”
Quarterbacks are at a premium in the NFL. Even if an organization is blessed with a franchise player such as Roethlisberger, there is always a need to have a competent backup. And, if that player proves to be something more than a capable backup, there are options to get return on the investment.
Some teams draft quarterbacks in the middle rounds and hope to spin them off via trade to other teams. New England has done this twice in the past decade.
The Patriots drafted Matt Cassel with a seventh-round pick in 2005. After leading the Patriots to an 11-5 record when Brady was injured in 2008, Cassel and veteran linebacker Mike Vrabel were dealt away for a second-round pick in 2009.
The Patriots used that second-round pick on safety Patrick Chung, who has started 59 games for the Patriots over the past seven seasons.
It doesn’t always turn out that well, though. In 2011, the Patriots used a third-round pick on Ryan Mallett. He played for the Patriots for three seasons before being traded to Houston for a sixth-round pick in the upcoming draft.
There are other reasons as well. The Steelers invested a fourth-round draft choice in Jones in 2013 when Roethlisberger was 30. They weren’t looking for Roethlisberger’s replacement then, either, but they wanted to get younger at the position and give more leadership responsibilities to him because he had always been surrounded by older and more veteran quarterbacks.
Jones is now in position to become the team’s veteran backup after a solid showing in games last season when Roethlisberger was injured.
If the Steelers use another middle- or late-round pick on a quarterback, Rang said Ohio State’s Cardale Jones would be a good fit. He has a fourth-round grade on Jones and said he would be perfect as a developmental player for a team like the Steelers that already has an established starter and backup.
“He has untapped potential and incredible skill set,” Rang said. “The Ohio State people say he’s a leader. He really handled that situation well last year when he wasn’t playing. He makes some sense. He has a lot of upside.”
Brugler said another middle- or late-round prospect that could fit the Steelers is North Carolina State’s Jacoby Brissett, who started the past two seasons for the Wolfpack after transferring from Florida.
“Physically, he has what you need,” Brugler said. “Brissett is really intriguing because he does do a lot of Roethlisberger-like things. He has the arm strength. You could get him in the fourth or fifth round.”
Ray Fittipaldo: rfittipaldo@post-gazette.com and Twitter @rayfitt1.
First Published: April 22, 2016, 4:00 a.m.
