A 10-0 Penn State team will lose at Ohio State Nov. 23 and miss out on the Big Ten championship game. It will finish the regular season with an 11-1 record and play in the Rose Bowl, not a bad consolation prize.
Pitt will win its final five games to end the regular season with a 10-2 record and its second consecutive ACC Coastal division title. It will lose to Clemson in the conference championship game before playing in a good bowl, a significant step in the right direction for Pat Narduzzi’s program.
Overly optimistic?
Perhaps.
But I’m not going to apologize for liking the Penn State and Pitt teams.
Penn State is ranked No. 6 in the latest Associated Press poll, with Pitt receiving votes. But I’m not sure Penn State is that much better. Pitt gave Penn State its toughest game of the season Sept. 14 and might have beaten the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley if not for Narduzzi’s bonehead decision to try a field goal instead of going for the tying touchdown on fourth-and-goal from the Penn State 1 with five minutes left. Iowa also played Penn State tough, but that game was in Iowa City. Pitt has won four games in a row since that loss to go to 5-2.
I love the Penn State defense. Micah Parsons reminds me of LaVar Arrington. Yetur Gross-Matos will be playing on Sundays soon. Lamont Wade is coming on in the secondary.
Quarterback Sean Clifford is getting better. KJ Hamler is a terrific big-play receiver. The offensive line is much improved. The running back-by-committee approach has worked, even if freshman Noah Cain deserves more playing time.
Why can’t Penn State win every game but the Ohio State game the rest of the way?
I also really like the Pitt defense. Ask Syracuse about the Panthers’ pass rush. It sacked the Syracuse quarterbacks nine times in a 27-20 win Friday night, bringing its season total to 36 sacks, easily the most in the country. Pitt, finally, is playing the type of defensive football I expected under Narduzzi, a defensive guru.
Kenny Pickett looks like a different quarterback with offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. Pickett was superb in leading Pitt back from late deficits against Central Florida and Duke. Maurice Ffrench and Taysir Mack statistically form the best receiving tandem in the country. The running game still is lacking, although A.J. Davis did run for 103 yards against Syracuse.
Why can’t Pitt finish the regular season with five consecutive wins?
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Penn State’s schedule is tougher.
It should win at Michigan State on Saturday, even though James Franklin is just 1-4 against the Spartans. Michigan State has an extra week to prepare, but it was demolished by Wisconsin and Ohio State in its two previous games. That team isn’t very good.
Penn State’s toughest test before Ohio State will come after an off weekend when it plays at No. 17 Minnesota. Penn State fans certainly remember when Minnesota spoiled their team’s 1999 season by beating the Arrington-led 9-0 Nittany Lions at Penn State.
Penn State lost to Ohio State by one point in each of the past two seasons after beating the Buckeyes at home in 2016. Franklin lamented the 27-26 home loss last season after the Nittany Lions blew a 12-point lead in the final seven minutes, saying, “The reality is, we’ve gone from an average football team to a good football team to a great football team, but we’re not an elite team yet. We’ll no longer be comfortable being great. We’re going to find a way to take that next step as a program because we’ve been knocking at the door long enough.”
Penn State isn’t there quite yet. No. 3 Ohio State is a legitimate national title contender and looks to be a pretty sure bet to make college football’s final four. There is no shame in going to the Rose Bowl, right?
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Pitt’s schedule is fascinating.
I believe Pitt is better than its five remaining opponents — Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Boston College — but it is hard to predict ACC results this season. Miami has beaten first-place Virginia but lost Saturday in overtime to a weak Georgia Tech team. Georgia Tech has that Miami win but lost to The Citadel and Temple. North Carolina has beaten Miami but lost to Appalachian State. Virginia Tech defeated Miami and beat North Carolina on Saturday in six overtimes but lost to Boston College. Boston College has that Virginia Tech win but lost to Kansas and Louisville.
It’s been a crazy year.
Pitt played a horrible game at Miami last year and lost, 24-3, but upset the No. 2 Hurricanes at home in 2017, 24-14, in Pickett’s first start. North Carolina is 4-0 against Narduzzi with wins by 7, 1, 3 and 3 points. Virginia Tech will be a challenging road assignment.
Narduzzi, of course, is worried only about Miami, Pitt’s home-coming opponent Saturday at Heinz Field.
“We know they’re as talented as any football team in the country. They’ve got skill all over the place,” he said.
To win the Coastal, Pitt almost certainly will have to win out and still will need a little help because it lost its opening game to Virginia, 30-14. Virginia must lose one of its remaining four ACC games at Louisville and at North Carolina and home against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.
I see it happening.
All of it.
Ron Cook: rcook@post-gazette.com and Twitter@RonCookPG. Ron Cook can be heard on the “Cook and Joe” show weekdays from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. on 93.7 The Fan.
First Published: October 22, 2019, 10:00 a.m.