The Pirates entered the All-Star break playing arguably their best baseball of the season, winning five of their last six games, including a three-game sweep over the Chicago White Sox. With a record of 48-48, the Pirates find themselves in the midst of a crowded National League playoff picture, sitting just 1½ games out of the final wild card spot and 6½ games behind the National League Central division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
The schedule, however, don’t get any easier for the Pirates once they return to play. Manager Derek Shelton’s club returns to Pittsburgh this weekend, where it will begin a challenging six-game home stand that features the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals, a team ahead of the Pirates in both the NL Central and wild card standings. A six-game pivotal road trip will follow, as the Pirates will travel to Arizona and Houston to face two more clubs also fighting for their postseason lives in the final week before MLB’s trade deadline.
While fans are undoubtedly hungry for October baseball on the North Shore, much will need to happen to ensure the Pirates can continue their winning ways. Here are five big questions the club faces as it begins its post-All-Star break campaign.
Will they make a move?
For the past two months, no topic has generated more conversation among Pirates faithful than the trade deadline. With one of the game’s best starting rotations and a bullpen that continues to improve, many believe the Pirates have a pitching staff built for the postseason. The club’s hitting, however, is a much different story.
Despite better results as of late, the Pirates are still one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Among all 30 MLB squads, Shelton’s club ranks tied for 21st in home runs (99), 24th in hits (751), 26th in batting average (.231) and 27th in OPS (.669). Only four big-league teams have struck out more than the Pirates (886).
While the franchise believes that a few struggling hitters are due for a better second half, the addition of one, if not more, capable bats would certainly help the Pirates win more games. Sources have informed the Post-Gazette that the Pirates have contacted many teams about a multitude of players, but as of now, no deal has been completed.
Angels outfielder Taylor Ward has been the most notable name to be connected to the black and gold. Other position players with multiple years of control, specifically outfielders, look to be the club’s primary targets. But such a transaction could come at a higher price than usual due to so many other teams also looking to add offense at the deadline.
Will the Pirates be willing to perhaps overpay to help give their 2024 club a better chance to compete? And if so, how much longer must the current lineup hang on before the reinforcements arrive?
How will they manage the starting rotation?
It’s a complicated situation, to say the least. The Pirates’ top strength in the first half was their starting pitching. Mitch Keller affirmed himself to be the club’s ace, Bailey Falter proved his doubters from spring training wrong and the rookie duo of Paul Skenes and Jared Jones took the baseball world by storm. Luis Ortiz and Quinn Priester have shown notable growth as starters, and veterans Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales are both back at full health, available to provide additional help.
Despite a few injuries, the Pirates look to have more than enough starting pitching depth to get them through the season. The question is how they can use their many assets to address each individual concern.
Skenes and Jones, of course, come with the usage issues that all young, elite flamethrowers face in today’s game. Predetermined innings limits, bullpen games and an occasional skipped start were strategies the Pirates used to give the duo extra rest in the first half. But can they get by doing so post-All-Star break?
Jones is expected to return from the injured list in August. Should he come back at full force, he won’t likely be handled with as much caution due to his extended downtime. Skenes, meanwhile, might provide more challenges should he continue to pitch deep into every ballgame he toes the rubber.
When healthy, the trio of Keller, Skenes and Jones will make up the top three spots in the rotation. But what about No. 4 and No. 5? Has Ortiz shown enough to remain a starter? Once Falter returns from the IL, will he, too, require usage limitations? Would it be best to give a young player like Priester opportunities? Or instead give priority to established, higher-paid veterans such as Perez and Gonzales?
Although the implementation of a six-man rotation would perhaps solve some of these predicaments, more than a few tough choices remain to be made. The Pirates have the cards to remain competent on the mound through September. It will simply come down to how well Shelton can play his hand.
Paul Skenes for Cy Young?
Isn’t it supposed to be difficult to pitch in the big leagues? If so, Skenes clearly has not received the message. In one year, Skenes went from college national champion to first overall pick to top prospect to MLB rookie to the National League’s starter in the 2024 MLB All-Star Game.
Despite tremendously high expectations, Skenes has been better than anyone could have expected through his first 11 starts, going 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA. He has twice been pulled from a game after throwing six or more no-hit innings while tallying 10 or more strikeouts. Nolan Ryan is the only other player to accomplish that feat in a season. Skenes is the overwhelming favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year. But that might not be the only recognition within reach for the 22-year-old right-hander.
Most sportsbooks have Skenes with the third-best odds to win the National League Cy Young, putting him behind Braves left-hander Chris Sale and Phillies righty Zack Wheeler. Although both come with a more established track record and a larger body of work in 2024, the hype surrounding Skenes’ pure dominance since May 11 could allow him to remain one of the sport's top stories throughout the remaining months.
Awards are nowhere near the top priority for Skenes. The rookie fireballer wants nothing more than to help his club win. The same could be said for the Pirates but in perhaps a different context. While watching their rookie win the Cy Young would be great, the franchise’s ultimate hope is to maximize Skenes’ abilities throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Part of that goal could mean seeing him get fewer starts than fans would hope to see in the second half.
Does Skenes have the tools to win this year’s Cy Young? Absolutely. But the challenge of maintaining his success while also facing potential usage limits could make that feat a bit more complicated.
Can Rowdy Tellez remain hot?
Of all the disappointing hitters in the first half of the season — and boy, were there many — none took more flack from fans than Rowdy Tellez. Perhaps the jeers directed toward Tellez were warranted. From opening day through May 31, he was statistically the worst first baseman in MLB, ranking second to last among all players with 140-plus plate appearances in wins above replacement (minus-1.2) and weighted runs created plus (32 — league average is 100).
But once June arrived, his luck turned around. After two months filled with struggles, Tellez rapidly became one of the top hitters in the Pirates lineup. He is slashing .324/.368/.581 since June 1. His batting average and slugging percentage during that stretch are second best among MLB first basemen, trailing only Phillies All-Star Bryce Harper.
After homering just once in his first 140 plate appearances, Tellez has smashed seven long balls in his last 114 trips to the dish. Tellez’s hot streak has allowed him to go from zero to hero in Pittsburgh. Fans no longer boo the first baseman but rather chant his name when he steps into the box.
That newfound love is, of course, a product of better results on the field. But though Tellez’s turnaround has been a fun story over the past month and a half, it’s worth asking if he can continue to deliver at this rate.
While it would be unfair to expect Tellez to be this productive for the remainder of the season, the Pirates cannot afford for him to revert back to what he was in April and May. With numerous others struggling to produce any sort of consistent power, the Pirates have relied heavily upon their awakened giant, and that will likely remain the case regardless of what additions they make at the deadline.
Tellez won’t have to carry this team. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz will still remain the top two threats for opposing pitching staffs. But if Tellez can remain a close third, the Pirates will have a much better shot at the postseason.
Who else will step up?
Tellez can’t be the only remarkable turnaround. Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jared Triolo, Henry Davis, Michael A. Taylor and Jack Suwinksi have all immensely underperformed at the plate. Had just one or two of those aforementioned names simply been league average in the first half, the Pirates would likely be in a much better spot as a club.
Shelton and general manager Ben Cherington have both expressed their continued belief in the club’s current group. They believe better results are to come in July, August and September. If they are right, then the Pirates will be a much tougher team to beat.
Hayes and Suwinski have both shown flashes recently of their old selves. The former tallied seven hits in the Pirates’ three-game sweep over the White Sox, while the latter has clobbered three homers in his last 13 games. Both must continue to deliver, especially in the first 12 games after the break.
Cherington has said multiple times that if the team hopes to remain competitive, it will be due to a better collective hitting effort after the All-Star break. A trade or two could help, but a few new players will not address the many inconsistencies within the Pirates lineup. If the Pirates are going to reach the playoffs, it will be due in large part to others following the Tellez route. Can a few underachievers improve? And if so, will it be enough to truly make a difference? That, perhaps above all else, is the biggest question the club faces as play resumes Friday.
Noah Hiles: nhiles@post-gazette.com and @_NoahHiles on X
First Published: July 18, 2024, 9:30 a.m.
Updated: July 19, 2024, 5:02 a.m.
