As executives, scouts and agents from various corners of Major League Baseball mingled in the lobby of the Manchester Grand Hyatt in San Diego this past December, Pirates senior director of amateur scouting Joe DelliCarri occupied one of 30 chairs in what looked like a makeshift classroom.
Each ping pong ball drawn determined one more spot in the inaugural draft lottery. As one of 30 team representatives, DelliCarri had the best seat in the house to see the Pirates outlast everyone and earn the first overall pick for the second time in three years and sixth time in franchise history.
Yet as general manager Ben Cherington, assistant general manager Steve Sanders, DelliCarri and others huddled to formulate plans for the next five-plus months, there’s likely no way they could’ve envisioned that path looking like this.
Instead of one clear-cut top choice, which seemed to be the sentiment when they won the lottery because of the sheer brilliance of LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, there are now multiple options to consider, talented players who could hear their name called at 1-1.
“There are five players who’ve separated themselves,” MLB Pipeline’s Jonathan Mayo told the Post-Gazette. “In any other year, they’d be contenders to go first overall. There’s no drop-off situation here.”
The block of five, according to most scouting services, includes Crews; LSU pitcher Paul Skenes; and three outfielders: Wyatt Langford (Florida) in the college ranks, plus high schoolers Walker Jenkins (South Brunswick, N.C.) and Max Clark (Franklin, Ind.).
Usually in that order, too.
It’s also worth noting that Mayo, Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo and several other draft analysts continued to link the Pirates to Crews, who was hitting .423 with a 1.289 OPS through 55 games with the Tigers, collecting 14 home runs, 57 RBIs and walking 54 times compared to just 34 strikeouts.
It’s entirely possible that Crews will be a generational talent, the type of player that has had Collazo hearing recent comps such as Adley Rutschman or Kris Bryant, slam dunks at the top of draft boards. But the point is that the Pirates, at 1-1 again, have plenty to consider.
“We think it’s a strong group to choose from, with plenty of different demographic groups,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said. “It’s given our group a lot to think about. It will continue to give our group a lot to think about between now and July. We don’t know what the answer will be, but I think we’ll have a chance to choose a really good player.”
The three-day event runs July 9-11 in Seattle, once again concurrent with the MLB All-Star Game. And although there’s a five-player cluster, expect to hear plenty about the big decision revolving around Crews and Skenes, a 6-foot-6, 235-pound right-hander considered the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg in 2009.
“It’s kind of like, ‘What flavor do you want?’ ” Mayo continued. “Again, you could make an argument that either of them should go Number 1. There’s no argument against Dylan Crews. The argument not to take Skenes is just that Crews is so freakin’ good. I also don’t want to ignore the other guys.
“You never want to pick Number 1, but it’s also a good year to pick Number 1. There are some really, really good choices.”
‘Advanced hitting traits’
Crews had a humble upbringing in Longwood, Fla., located about 20 minutes north of Orlando. His father owns a commercial printing business. His mom’s a nurse. But that’s also close to where the normalcy ends for Crews, who was very much a phenom growing up.
To further their son’s dreams, George and Kim Crews sent Dylan to an indoor batting facility that was a converted car dealership. In high school, they front-loaded his course schedule so Dylan could spend afternoons training at TXNL Baseball Academy.
Crews became the Florida Gatorade Player of the Year as a senior and was selected to the Perfect Game All-American Classic as a junior and senior before the Cardinals drafted him in the second round in 2020.
But with smaller bonuses available due to COVID-19, Crews never signed and went through with his college commitment.
“I’ve had a lot of scouts tell me that, had 2020 been a normal year, Dylan Crews never would have set foot on campus,” Mayo said.
Sliding immediately into a starting role in right field in 2021, Crews promptly set an LSU freshman record with 18 home runs. He hit 22 more as a sophomore. Over his first two seasons, Crews slashed .356/.458/.677, in 2022 shifting to center field and earning co-SEC Player of the Year honors.
Collazo has seen plenty of Crews’ 70-grade power that has fans and scouts salivating, but for the Baseball America draft writer, it’s more than pop. It’s his loud tools such as “electric bat speed” combined with elite pitch recognition that sets Crews apart.
“He trusts his hands and strength, so he can let the ball travel and drive the ball to the opposite field with plenty of authority and power,” Collazo said. “They’re really advanced hitting traits on top of the athletic foundation and tools that he has.”
‘Keeps getting better’
Not to be outdone by Crews’ workaholic nature, Skenes grew up in Lake Forest, Calif., about a half-hour south of Anaheim, and had a large military influence on his life. Two of his uncles served in the Navy, the other in the Coast Guard.
Although Skenes has basically become the talk of college baseball this season for the video-game numbers he’s produced at LSU, his dominance actually began at Air Force, where he slashed .410/.486/.697 as a freshman, with 11 home runs, 43 RBIs and a 2.70 ERA in 26 2/3 innings in a relief role.
Skenes made 15 starts last year, had a 2.73 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings and wound up transferring to LSU, where he has gone 10-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 14 starts this spring, walking 15 and striking out 164. At 17.03, he’s currently on pace to break the NCAA record for strikeouts per nine innings (Ryan Wagner, Houston, 16.8 in 2003).
“It’s a very, very uncomfortable at-bat,” Mayo said. “It’s not like he just throws hard. He keeps getting better.”
It’s certainly a unique story with Skenes, who caught, played first base and a little outfield as a two-way star but has since pressed pause on those efforts this season to focus solely on pitching.
Mayo and Collazo have seen Skenes a bunch and love the carry on his fastball and how consistently he’s able to repeat his delivery. The same as Crews, neither sees much development left before a major league promotion would be possible.
“Everything he’s throwing right now would work in a big league rotation or bullpen pretty much immediately,” Collazo said of Skenes.
As much as the incredible velocity has been his calling card, Skenes also throws a slider that Mayo affectionately called “stupid.” There’s been some inconsistency with his changeup, but he’s still missing bats more than 50% of the time with it.
As someone who only recently became a full-time pitcher and has seemingly gotten a ton better in just one year of doing it, there’s also the belief that Skenes is nowhere near finished.
“There’s a very legitimate case to be made that Paul Skenes has the highest pure upside in the draft class,” Collazo said.
History matters
The situation the Pirates face in this year’s draft is not without precedent, in a few different ways. To examine those scenarios, let’s rewind back to 2001-02.
In the first of those two drafts, the Twins selected local product Joe Mauer, a catcher, and left USC pitcher Mark Prior for the Cubs. What happened with Prior has been repeated often surrounding the Pirates’ pick.
It’s not a mark against Skenes. More the inherent risk that exists in taking a pitcher ... and potentially encountering the myriad arm issues that plagued Prior over five major league seasons.
“That’s the cautionary tale,” Mayo said. “Mark Prior did everything well. He had the perfect delivery. He got to the big leagues quickly, then his arm fell off.
“That’s the thing with pitching prospects. There’s no guarantee that Dylan Crews will be a superstar, but there’s less injury risk when it comes to hitting prospects.”
The second of those years might make Pirates fans angry.
Picking first overall for the third time in their history, the Pirates selected Bryan Bullington out of Ball State. Bullington might’ve been the best college pitching prospect in the draft, but B.J. Upton (16.8 career bWAR) went second, and high school arms such as Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels and Matt Cain occupied lower spots in the first round.
It goes without saying that Cherington and his staff would like to avoid a Bullington situation, but that doesn’t mean they’ll automatically take Crews. Think back to 2021, the last time the Pirates had this pick.
Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter were Vanderbilt pitchers atop draft boards. Marcelo Mayer, Brady House, Kahlil Watson and Jordan Lawlar were popular in the top-five. The Pirates went with Henry Davis and spent their allotted bonus pool dollars other places.
If the Pirates view Langford, Jenkins or Clark as close, perhaps they could try and do that again and get creative with how they use their draft dollars.
“It wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world,” Collazo said. “If they had significant savings and they viewed all the talents as pretty close but one was guy was $2 million cheaper, I can’t argue with that logic. Even though I probably would want to take Crews or Skenes.”
There’s a lot to like about the other three, too. Mayo was quick too point out that Langford’s OPS of 1.353 has actually zoomed past what Crews (1.289) has done.
Collazo, who thinks Jenkins has “probably the best swing in the class,” also doesn’t see a huge drop from Crews to Langford in terms of power or future production at the plate.
Clark, another of the high schoolers, has been described as having arguably the highest ceiling among the position players, because he still has most of the hit tool and also 70-grade speed.
“Tool for tool, performance and track record, [Langford] is very close to Crews,” Collazo said. “I know a lot of people really love his swing, the power and athleticism that he brings to the table.
“These guys after the LSU duo are pretty impressive in their own right.”
‘Just take him’
The strategy from two years ago was a solid one and enabled the Pirates to stretch and get pitchers Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler — three of their top 10 according to most scouting services — but it’s not the same this year, the experts said.
“In 2021, we had a group of five or so players that were kind of clustered,” Collazo said. “There wasn’t an obvious Number 1. Going with Henry and saving some money made a lot more sense in that draft class than I feel like it would this year.”
At the same time, Collazo brought up a good point when it came to drafting a premier pitcher over a position player: The Pirates will likely never be a team that pays for premium pitching on the free agent market. Acquiring it now, via the draft, could give them a generational starter for years to come.
And while it’s certainly a gamble, you’re also betting on an incredibly talented kid with a military background, one whose star is clearly still rising.
Will that be enough for the Pirates to move off of Crews, the presumed No. 1 selection when this whole process started? Only the Pirates know.
“This year, any organization should be careful not to try and outsmart itself,” Mayo said. “If they think there’s a guy they think is the best player, they should just take him. And that’s without knowing who they think is the best guy.”
Jason Mackey: jmackey@post-gazette.com and Twitter @JMackeyPG.
First Published: May 29, 2023, 9:30 a.m.
Updated: May 31, 2023, 1:23 p.m.
