DETROIT — This will come as no surprise to anyone who knows Pirates closer David Bednar, but he’s not exactly the type of person who’s interested in celebrating himself.
Must be the Iron City or relentless Pittsburgh pride.
Bednar knows when he’s pitching well, of course. He’s not dumb. It’s also tough to be unaware of strikeouts and victory celebrations. But comparing himself to other elite closers or dominant relievers ... yeah, Bednar isn’t really interested in going there.
“Once you start focusing other places, you lose that little bit of focus where you’re just worried about what you can control,” Bednar said. “That’s it. I try to keep it as simple as possible and keep the blinders on when it comes to that.”
It’s a shame because Bednar has been putting on quite a show this season. He has, in the event he hasn’t noticed, been among the best relievers in baseball. Maybe the best.
The numbers for the local product have been eye-popping. Among them:
• Bednar’s expected ERA (xERA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) both rank in the 100th percentile MLB-wide at 1.18 and .168, respectively.
• His walk (1.6%), whiff (43.3%) and chase rates (40.9%) are all in the 99th percentile.
• A tick below that, Bednar’s average exit velocity (83.0) mph) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG, .234) are in the 98th percentile.
• We’ll have to find out what the heck is happening with Bednar’s strikeout rate. It’s “only” 34.4% and in the 93rd percentile. Slacker.
Some of those stat names might seem silly or intimating to the older crowd, but the point is this: If the MLB All-Star Game were being held this week — don’t worry, it’s not — Bednar would absolutely be making a return appearance.
When looking at more traditional stats, only two relievers — Yennier Cano of the Orioles and the Mets’ David Robertson — have a better ERA than Bednar, who has walked two (one intentionally) and struck out 21 in 16 innings.
Bednar has thrown 215 pitches this season, 71% of those have been strikes, and opponents are hitting a paltry .059 and slugging just .088 against Bednar’s four-seam fastball, which carries a whiff rate of 44.3% (third-best in MLB for that pitch).
“Just trying to fill up the zone,” Bednar said with a smile. “What else do I always say? Compete in the zone and good things happen. Keeping it as simple as possible.
“Whenever the phone rings and my spot comes up, those guys have been grinding the whole game. To be able to finish the whole game and seal victories is what I’m gonna do.”
He’s certainly not going to compare himself to other relievers, though the crowd of comparable pitchers has been diminishing by the day.
Quantifying Keller
From watching games on TV, or in person, it hasn't been terribly difficult to discern Mitch Keller's dominance.
Only two starting pitchers — Logan Webb of the Giants and Arizona's Zac Gallen — have worked more than Keller's 56 2/3 innings. Just 10 have a lower ERA (2.38).
Keller's mark is tied with Framber Valdez, better than Spencer Strider (2.51) and Shane Bieber (2.61) and a tick below Shane McClanahan (2.34), Gallen (2.35) and Clayton Kershaw (2.36).
Very much swimming with the big boys there.
How Keller has been doing it also warrants a second look. Two years after opponents hit .313 and slugged .495 against Keller's four-seam fastball, those numbers have dropped to .167 and .267 this season.
While Keller has done an extremely good job of commanding the pitch, it's been made more effective by the right-hander's sinker and cutter, forcing hitters to react to hard offerings moving in several different directions.
"Mitch knows himself, his identity and what he's trying to do," Pirates pitching coach Oscar Marin said.
As for a few other numbers to note on Keller, check this out:
• His average exit velocity has dropped all the way to 86.0 mph from 91.5 mph (in 2021).
• Keller has issued just 14 walks, his rate of 6.1% representing a drop from 8.7% last season and 9.2% for his career.
• Only five pitchers throughout MLB have had a faster tempo than Keller, who has averaged just 11.8 seconds between pitches.
Keller honored
For his efforts, Keller was named the National League’s player of the week. He went 2-0 and did not allow a run over 16 innings, giving up just eight hits and one walk with 21 strikeouts.
In his last start, Keller became the first pitcher in franchise history to go at least seven scoreless innings without walking a batter while permitting no more than four hits and fanning at least 13.
He has a 16-inning scoreless streak while ranking third in the NL in strikeouts (69), tied for fourth in wins (5) and sixth in ERA (2.38).
Jason Mackey: jmackey@post-gazette.com and Twitter @JMackeyPG.
First Published: May 16, 2023, 9:30 a.m.
