BOSTON — The Pirates and their fans spent much of this spring wondering what would happen with a half-dozen pitchers capable of starting games in the major leagues. Would they go with six? Would Johan Oviedo wind up as a swingman?
Now look.
On Sunday, the Pirates announced in the middle of a 3-1 loss to the Reds that JT Brubaker would go on the 60-day injured list with right elbow/forearm discomfort. They have not released an official diagnosis, but according to sources, Tommy John surgery is one of the options being considered.
Whatever it is, Brubaker won’t start again for months and maybe more, which brings us to the many layers to consider here.
The latest forearm/elbow issue with Brubaker should officially make him a reliever. While his curveball and changeup looked solid this spring, his sinker-slider combination is exceptional. We’re also talking about arm issues in 2019 and now this current one.
Similar to Chad Kuhl, who was also sinker-slider heavy and someone the Pirates tried to use out of the bullpen, it’s probably time for Brubaker.
“When he first came up, you saw him as a reliever,” pitching coach Oscar Marin said this winter. “Is it a crazy thought? No. But as of right now, starting pitching is at a premium. He’s able to do it more than just in short stints.”
What the right-hander has done the past two seasons has been impressive, striking out more than a batter per inning and leading the Pirates in that category. But when Brubaker returns, whether it’s later this year or in 2024, the smartest move long-term will be shifting him to the bullpen.
Rounding out his pitch mix becomes less important. Just dial up the sinker, throw a lot of sliders and enjoy the reduced wear and tear on Brubaker’s right arm. Certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to go this route.
As for the vacated rotation spot, it looks Oviedo’s to lose — with the caveat that Monday’s start in Boston will be his first of the season. Have to give it some time, anyway. However, the growth out of Oviedo has been really impressive.
After the Pirates acquired him from the Cardinals last season, he had a 3.23 in seven starts, 2.12 in his last three. The Pirates worked with him on mechanical issues but also trusting his stuff, throwing strikes and attacking hitters. When Oviedo channels that mindset, he’s really good and occasionally dominant.
“The good thing about what I did last year and the reason why I got better was because I stopped worrying about being better than I really am,” Oviedo said. “My pitches are good enough to get people out. Just trusting that.”
He toyed with a sinker this spring but actually found more success with his slider and curveball while pitching to a 2.93 ERA over his final four Grapefruit League appearances. Oviedo’s slider became his best pitch, something he said has been accentuated by body positioning and arm slot work done on his fastball.
“My fastball and breaking balls move a lot,” Oviedo said. “I just want right now to put everything on the plate and let the pitches work.”
Let Oviedo learn. Mitch Keller, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez and Roansy Contreras fill out the rotation. The question, then, becomes this: Who’s next? As of now, it’s Luis Ortiz, the flame throwing 24-year-old who’s starting the season in Triple-A.
Consistent control was a spring training hurdle for Ortiz, who pitched for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. So was refining his changeup. When those things coalesce, look out. Ortiz will be really good. We saw glimpses last season after Ortiz made his MLB debut. Impressive stuff.
Ortiz should make double-digit starts in the big leagues this season, but it’ll be interesting to see if he’s the Pirates’ first call should they need a starter. Also in that competition is Mike Burrows, who gave the Triple-A club five innings of one-run ball on Sunday, walking two and striking out one.
That continued a strong close to the minor league season for Burrows, a 40-man roster pitcher, who had a 2.20 ERA in four August games (three starts) with 16 strikeouts in as many innings.
A true patchwork candidate could theoretically be Caleb Smith, a veteran lefty with 147 MLB games and 64 starts over the past six seasons, but he gave up eight runs in his first Triple-A start. If Smith pitches better, maybe. It would help to not Ortiz or Burrows. But the results have to improve.
Bottom line, losing Brubaker — while relatively expected — sets off a ripple-effect in the organization. We’re also waiting to learn a definitive diagnosis and recovery plan, which could theoretically put him on the shelf well into next season.
Jason Mackey: jmackey@post-gazette.com and Twitter @JMackeyPG.
First Published: April 3, 2023, 3:25 p.m.
