BRADENTON, Fla. — The past six weeks were supposed to sort out something, right? They helped a little, although there’s plenty left heading into the Pirates’ season opener Thursday against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park.
Here are six of the biggest questions to carry them the rest of the way, into that opening series and beyond.
1. What happens with Bryan Reynolds?
There’s been plenty said and written about his contract. Too much, the involved parties might tell you. But one way or another, it’s nearing an end.
Reynolds said Friday he’d prefer to stop discussing anything contract-related once the season starts, and that’s generally the Pirates’ preference, as well, though general manager Ben Cherington said he’s fine making exceptions for players who want that.
Reynolds most certainly does not. He also wants to stay in Pittsburgh, as he’s repeated a bunch over the past few years, and he said in February that he’d still be amenable to signing here. What will it take?
Triple-digit dollars, for sure. And probably somewhere around the midpoint of initial asks, which works out to $107 million. They should just meet in the middle on years, too, and make it seven. But the process will be done one way or another soon.
2. Does Oneil Cruz become a star?
Spring training featured plenty of intriguing data points, with the 6-foot-7 shortstop collecting two home runs and two doubles in 15 games, plus routinely registering some extreme exit velocities on Statcast.
His defense has also been better, with Cruz’s footwork and consistency noticeably improved. Entering Monday, Cruz was hitting .250 with 11 strikeouts in in 50 plate appearances, which represents improvement when it comes to his strikeout rate (34.9% in 2022 versus 22% this spring).
Should the better defense and swing decisions continue, there’s little doubt regarding Cruz’s ability to hit, throw and run, the incredible tools that make him so exciting to watch.
“When I see the power, the swing, it’s crazy,” Carlos Santana said. “I think he’s going to be a superstar for a long time.”
3. Will Pirates pitchers throw enough strikes?
Every day down here, a member of the coaching staff has updated the in-zone percentage leaders for Pirates pitchers, emphasizing the need to throw more strikes and cut down on walks.
Acknowledging spring training results can be skewed by the performance of minor leaguers, but the Pirates ranked 23rd walks per nine innings prior to Monday’s games at 4.01. It’s technically above their 2022 regular season mark (3.71, 28th) but also an upgrade over how young guys and veterans found the zone in Grapefruit League play a year ago (4.12 per nine).
“Some of the acquisitions that we’ve made have those mentalities and some of the changes that have happened with guys that we already have, that’s what they’re trending toward,” pitching coach Oscar Marin said, talking about the Pirates competing more in the strike zone.
For the Pirates to improve as a pitching staff, it undoubtedly starts with limiting free passes and also having the confidence to throw their best stuff over the plate.
4. Will the offense be good enough?
Once again with the caveat that it’s spring and results don’t matter, we’ve seen some key improvements on this side of the ball. Ke’Bryan Hayes, for one, looks more like he did in September 2020 than how he’s hit the past two years, consistently catching the ball out front and driving it in the air pull side. He led them in home runs (4) and extra-base hits (6) prior to Monday’s game.
Santana has been quiet, but one would think he’ll improve when games start to count. Zero reason to worry about Reynolds. There are reasons to believe Cruz will be a dominant force, while offseason additions such as Ji-Man Choi, Andrew McCutchen and Connor Joe should up the team’s collective on-base percentage.
Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae remain question marks.
The Pirates aren’t suddenly going to become an offensive juggernaut, nor do they need to be. But given what they added, they should find their way out of the MLB basement.
“I think that’s the hope for everybody, for that to happen,” Reynolds said of the offense improving. “We’ll need some of the younger guys to really step up and have a bunch of people play the way they can.”
5. Will the new rules help the Pirates?
They’re in the same boat as pretty much everyone else when it comes to adjusting to the pitch clock. It’s been a process — and one that will probably continue into the regular season.
But it also stands to reason that the Pirates, assuming they’re able to get on base enough, can ride the wave of the running game’s resurgence around the sport.
A shorter distance between bases and limited pickoff throws have combined to drastically increase stolen-base attempts and success rate, and the Pirates are no exception. Entering Monday’s game, they were 12th with 26 steals and had only been thrown out five times for an 84% success rate that ranked top-10 throughout MLB.
Also entering play Monday, teams had stolen 767 bases in 876 games for an average of .88 per contest. That’s up from .56 stolen bases per game in a smaller sample size of games last spring.
6. How will manager Derek Shelton handle in-game moves?
The last question is a much larger unknown considering Shelton has managed a young, rebuilding club the past three years, where development was the priority and he was often choosing starters or relief pitchers plucked from the waiver wire. It should be a different situation this spring.
The tone Shelton sets obviously still matters, especially with so many of the in-game situations driven more and more by numbers. But we should also get a better picture of Shelton’s ability as an in-game manager.
Perhaps this year, finally, moves are discussed and debated more and strategy matters in a way that it hasn’t in a couple years. We know lineups will change and that the Pirates don’t love pitchers facing hitters for a third time, but there’s so much more to the game than those sort of decisions.
It will be fun to see how Shelton fares when the stakes are higher, which is impossible to gauge during spring training.
Jason Mackey: jmackey@post-gazette.com and Twitter @JMackeyPG.
First Published: March 27, 2023, 3:40 p.m.
Updated: March 27, 2023, 8:15 p.m.
