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Oneil Cruz #15 of the Pittsburgh Pirates celebrates after hitting a home run in the top of the sixth inning off Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 18, 2022 in New York City.
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Good and bad of Pirates' 2023 ZiPS projections: Look to young players — not free agents — for hope

Michael Urakami / Getty Images

Good and bad of Pirates' 2023 ZiPS projections: Look to young players — not free agents — for hope

Significant short-term moves have been the story of the Pirates’ offseason. From the return of Andrew McCutchen to the signings of veterans including Rich Hill, Carlos Santana and Austin Hedges on one-year deals, the front office’s pivot toward supplementing a young core with useful players has been a noticeable and exciting development for many fans.

From the perspective of Dan Szymborski’s highly regarded ZiPS projections, however, it’s the club’s prospects and young players who may be the more worthy source of long-term optimism.

Szymborski released his Pirates projections back in December and has included projections for players the Pirates have signed in projections for other teams released subsequently. And he actually takes a dim view of short-term spending on guys, with some specific criticism for the addition of Santana.

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“I hate to discourage the Pirates from spending money, but spending money on a one-year contract for Carlos Santana is worse than not spending it at all,” he writes. “We want ownership to invest in the Pirates, not simply spend on the biggest, cheapest name-brand veteran available in an attempt to quell some of the franchise’s most vocal fans. If you want to spend $6.7 million on the team, great! Stick that in an index fund to be used on a player who matters at a time that matters. Santana’s been lousy for three years now and he’ll be 37 in April. He doesn’t help the Pirates win now and signing him only hurts them in winning later; plate appearances are a resource just like money, and playing Santana instead of someone else who could possibly have a future with the team is wasteful.”

Pittsburgh Pirates' Ke'Bryan Hayes (13) hits a two-run home run, which also scored Bryan Reynolds, against Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher Beau Sulser during the seventh inning of a baseball game, Sunday, Aug 7, 2022, in Baltimore.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
WATCH: Playing 2023 over/unders for Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes and other key Pirates

That point is reinforced with sunny projections for a lot of young, homegrown players. So without further ado, let’s get into the good and the bad of what Szymborski’s industry-leading statistical models say. They aren’t Gospel by any means, but they’re a good starting point in looking to what could be ahead in 2023.

The good

● Catching prospect Endy Rodriguez’s projections leap off the page. Because it’s unlikely he’ll start the season in the big leagues, it’s unlikely he’ll actually reach the counting stats ZiPS projects for him. But the models are clear in their assessment that he’s capable of being a good player whenever he gets to Pittsburgh. ZiPS values him at 2.6 wins above replacement (WAR) over a full campaign and expects he’d produce a hitting line of .254/.321/.429 with 14 homers and 66 RBIs. Only three veterans — Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes — are valued more from a WAR perspective. So Rodriguez is the clear No. 1 name to look forward to once the Super 2 deadline passes in late May or early June.

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● Mike Burrows is another prospect in whom Pirates fans have invested a lot of hope, and the models like his chances to be productive immediately, as well. They project he’d pitch to a 4.30 ERA and strike out 8.8 hitters per nine innings. Only Roansy Contreras at 9.2 is expected to be better in the latter category among viable rotation options. So to Szymborski’s point, he’s a guy you’ll want to see get a chance later in the season. Far more than you’ll likely want to see the ancient Hill, born during the Jimmy Carter administration.

● Johan Oviedo, Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz are all projected for ERAs in the mid to lower 4.00s. How much we’ll see of any of them remains to be seen, especially early in the season. But for the first time since Cherington arrived in Pittsburgh in 2019, we’re seeing signs of competent starting pitching depth in the data. Gone, hopefully, are the days of running out low-upside organization arms to get pulverized by the league’s better lineups. Instead, the Pirates should be able to turn to interesting players with a chance to be major pieces of their future pretty much whenever they want. It’s unlikely all four of these young starters are going to pan out as planned. But at least there’s reason to watch when they get their opportunities.

●If Reynolds lasts the season in Pittsburgh — a big if, considering his offseason trade request — ZiPS sees a bounce-back to All-Star caliber with a projected line of .272/.354/.466 and 23 homers valued at a robust 3.5 wins above replacement. At the very least, if he can be that type of player between now and the trade deadline, the Pirates will be able to demand quite the haul from a contender if and when they decide to move him.

● Hayes is expected to be worth nearly three wins, primarily on the strength of his awesome glove at third base. That’s good. But Pirates fans would probably like to see him hit better than ZiPS projects — a line of .246/.315/.373 with just nine homers. As a cornerstone of the franchise following his lucrative extension last opening day, you’d probably like to see him above that .700 OPS threshold in his fourth major league season.

Pirates catchers Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez head off the field after taking batting practice during training camp at LECOM Park, Tuesday, March 15, 2022, in Bradenton. (Post-Gazette)
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● David Bednar is expected to be his usual self in the closer role with a reliable 3.24 ERA. The same, unfortunately, cannot be said about the rest of the bullpen. More on that in a bit.

The bad

● It’s probably not entirely fair to list Cruz here considering ZiPS expects him to be the Pirates’ second-most valuable player with a WAR of 2.7. If he is worth that much, it’ll be a great first full season for him. But Pirates fans are likely hoping he’ll hit far more than the 22 homers ZiPS projects him for after he hit 17 in just 87 games a season ago. In that sense, the models suggest he could be a slight disappointment. Fans will hope they’re wrong and that Cruz gets closer to the 30 mark.

● We should be seeing Mitch Keller begin to distinguish himself from his younger counterparts at this point as a 26-year-old. And at times in the second half of last season, he did by deploying an effective sinker. ZiPS doesn’t seem to be taking that growth into account, projecting a 4.37 ERA in 2023. The models seem to be projecting more off his raw 2022 totals, which weren’t quite as good as he was late. So here’s a case where fans can reasonably hope for some over-performance.

● Most of the free agent signings are looking low-impact, to Szymborski’s point. Santana is expected to be worth 1.4 wins. Decent, but not a ton of production for what he’s being paid. Hill is forecasted for an ERA near 5.00 on an $8 million salary. The Pirates could find that production from much younger and cheaper guys. Hedges, McCutchen and Vince Velasquez, meanwhile, are all projected to be worth less than a win each while making a combined $13 million. Not great. The Pirates will have to hope either that the models are wrong or that these guys’ veteran experience rubs off on younger players to make these moves worthwhile.

● Beyond Bednar, ZiPS sees little reliability in the bullpen. To the point that Szymborski suggests handling it this way: “What I’d like to see the Pirates do with their bullpen this year is use it almost like a mad scientist’s lab from a 1950’s sci-fi movie. Any time a live arm hits the waiver wire, regardless of whether that player is aware of the existence of the strike zone — and on the waiver wire, they usually aren’t — the Pirates should be in on them hard.” Oof. Not a good look for Cherington in Year 4. Perhaps this will be a place for guys like Ortiz and Oviedo to prove their worth before graduating to the rotation.

● Beyond Rodriguez, ZiPS does not expect a ton of impact from the Pirates’ crop of young position players. Travis Swaggerty and Ji Hwan Bae are projected to be worth more than a win, but they won’t hit for a lot of pop and will need to earn regular playing time first. Jack Suwinski is projected for 22 homers after seizing a lot of attention with his power in the first half last season. But continued inability to get on base drags his projection down to just one win above replacement. And Rodolfo Castro doesn’t register much after a promising close to last season. ZiPS expects a lackluster line of .226/.289/.389 and 0.8 WAR. Names like Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba and — notably — former first-overall pick Henry Davis register even less. Again, it’s reasonable to expect more from Cherington’s development regime at this stage of his tenure. So it’s important these guys find a way to prove the models wrong. 

Adam Bittner: abittner@post-gazette.com and Twitter @fugimaster24.

First Published: January 31, 2023, 10:30 a.m.

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