The NFL’s championship Sunday, as entertaining as it might’ve been, started a ticking clock. Two weeks until I leave for spring training. Can’t wait. At the same time, it’s hard to believe where the offseason went. In this week’s mailbag, we’ll spin our attention ahead to the middle of 2023 with potential call-ups while also examining the Pirates’ starting pitching and the MLB draft. As always, questions can be submitted via email (jmackey@post-gazette.com) or Twitter (@JMackeyPG).
Matthew H (@MAH_SteelCity): Who will be the first significant call-ups in 2023?
Jason Mackey: Get a version of this every week, so I decided to open with it. It’s also impossible to say for sure. Injuries matter. The Pirates will also never admit it publicly — no team will — but I’ll always believe Super 2 status and team control will play significant parts.
The focus early should be playing better baseball while spurring developing at Triple-A. At the same time, Pirates fans merely want hope for the future, and there’s nothing wrong with that. So, let’s take a look at how it could shake out.
Pitching-wise, I don’t see how Luis Ortiz heads north with the team, no matter how well he fares in spring training. Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras, JT Brubaker, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez and Johan Oviedo ... I just don’t see where Ortiz fits.
Not so much ability-wise, but the Pirates have an easier time controlling his innings in the minors, and let’s be honest: For a 24-year-old who throws 100 mph, who may or may not be a finished product while they’re likely still a year away from being truly competitive, they’ll almost assuredly be conservative with his arm.
At the same time, Ortiz occupies the top spot on this list for me because he’s really good, showed as much last season, and we know that pitching depth will probably be required sooner than anyone expects.
The meat of this question also tends to center around Endy Rodriguez, which I certainly understand and respect. He’s good. He’s fun. I can’t wait to see him up here, too.
Dude tore up High-A, made Double-A look easy — posting a 1.120 OPS and homering eight times in 31 games — before jumping to Triple-A and somehow increasing his OPS (1.208) over a half-dozen games.
It’s awesome ... but also incomplete.
I’m perfectly fine, given his position, not rushing things with Rodriguez. If he’s a catcher, I think there’s value in fully developing that aspect of his game. If he’s not — exposing him to the injury risk inherent with that position concerns me — then maybe the time helps at second base, in the outfield or wherever.
Next for me would probably be a sleeper: Colin Selby. Casual Pirates fans might think I’ve lost my mind (not sure I had it in the first place), but for those who follow the team closely, this is hardly a surprise. Converted starter. Upper-90s velocity. Terrific control. Diverse pitch mix with a pair of breaking balls, including a nasty curveball.
The Pirates must limit the bullpen churn from last season, but I could see Selby — who was added to the 40-man roster this offseason — faring well early at Triple-A and earning a look.
Next would be Mike Burrows, probably as soon as he gains meaningful traction at Triple-A. Burrows, who dealt with some minor shoulder issues last season, had a 7.31 ERA over his first four Triple-A starts but cut that to 2.10 (with a .189 bating average against) over his next seven, learning quickly about the much thinner margin for error.
Burrows has the stuff and makeup. I really like the edge with which he pitches. Needs more seasoning, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him here by June.
Will round this out with the non-roster guys I think you’ll see: Henry Davis, Quinn Priester and Malcom Nunez.
I’m expecting Davis to have a bounce-back/breakout season. Priester could probably use 10-12 more starts in the minors, at minimum. Nunez would get his chance with strong production and after something happens with Ji-Man Choi/Carlos Santana, either an injury or trade.
Ferrolla33 (@ferrolla33): How can they reasonably be expected to be even halfway competitive with the worst starting pitching in MLB?
Jason Mackey: Questions phrased this way obviously aren’t new to me, but for whatever reason, this one sent me down a little bit of a rabbit hole.
The Pirates didn’t really have the worst starting pitching in MLB, did they?
Short answer: No, they did not. And won’t.
I actually think their starting pitching could be a relative strength, and there should be some measure of optimism regarding the young guys (Burrows, Priester and potentially Kyle Nicolas or Carmen Mlodzinski) who could debut this season.
Should the Dodgers, Astros or Yankees be scared? Probably not. But the worst-in-show tag is a little harsh.
Some facts:
• Pirates starters had a 4.61 ERA in 2022, which ranked 24th.
• They allowed the fifth-fewest home runs (94) and had the 10th-most walks (290). Stick an asterisk next to the first number because Bryse Wilson and Zach Thompson — who combined to allow 39 bombs — are gone.
• Their FIP (4.25) bumped up to 20th in the second half.
• Pirates starters’ collective WHIP (1.41) was fourth-highest, their batting average (.262) sixth-highest, and they struck out 655 (25th).
That’s not good enough, obviously, but what if they effectively turned Thompson and Wilson into Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez? I’d be OK with that, especially when you consider the other pieces Pittsburgh picked up along the way last season.
Hill (3.32) has the ninth-lowest ERA of any pitcher with 750 MLB innings since 2015. It’s similar to Gerrit Cole (3.19), yet we’ve determined that right here, right now, in Pittsburgh, is where and when he’s going to fall off the proverbial age cliff? Not at 38, 39, 40, 41 or 42. But now?
Velasquez has always had electric stuff. The issue has been control. Well, Velasquez is coming off a season in which he set career-lows in walk rate (7.8%) and WHIP (1.23). Doesn’t mean he’s bound to replicate it — his .269 BABIP, also a career-low, worries me — but I have zero issue with the Pirates taking a shot.
Mitch Keller made big strides in 2022. Pretty sure Roansy Contreras is good at pitching. JT Brubaker nearly sliced a run off his ERA while striking out more than a batter per inning for the second consecutive season.
Ortiz will be here before long. Oviedo (3.23 in seven starts) showed promise after the Jose Quintana/Chris Stratton trade.
Bottom line, I get the frustration over the Pirates right now, but I don’t think bagging on the pitching staff is the place I’d start.
Alex Murphy (@AlexMurphy1824): Favorite to be drafted at No. 1?
Jason Mackey: Thanks for the question, Alex. One that reminded me to brush up on some MLB draft reading.
Also want to preface my answer by saying that so, so much will change. Covering 2021, I remember when they were drafting Kumar Rocker, then Jack Leiter, even Marcelo Mayer — how could they not?! — and ultimately left Denver with Henry Davis.
Things change, Mox. (Varsity Blues) There’s strategy involved. We’re not plugging holes on the major league club.
As of now, however, I’d have a tough time not drafting Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander. Yes, I know LSU outfielder Dylan Crews has 40 home runs the past two years. He’ll probably get better, too. I also like Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford, who had 26 homers in 2022 and could nudge his way into the top-pick conversation.
I’m still taking Dollander, who sits comfortably around 96-97 mph, has a legit four-pitch mix and might be the best college pitching prospect since Cole or Stephen Strasburg. If all things are equal — and it certainly seems as though they could be here — I’m going pitching every time.
PiratesRants (@PiratesRants162): What do you expect the future of first base to look like for the Pirates? Do you think Malcom Nunez is the guy, or is 2024 the year to sign or trade for a young first baseman?
Jason Mackey: This is a low-key fascinating question for the Pirates because, honestly, as much as I’d love to give you a straight answer, I can’t.
Could certainly be Nunez, who’s among the top options. However, if Carlos Santana hits and provides leadership, they might stick with him another year. If they need to stash Rodriguez somewhere, first base makes sense. But there’s more.
Say Oneil Cruz makes 92 errors at shortstop and doesn’t really take to the outfield. Could he be a (gigantic) option? Jared Triolo is outstanding defensively, won a minor league Gold Glove at third base and is obviously blocked there; they’ve tinkered with him in the outfield, but when we’re talking about someone who’s 6-foot-3 and agile, it has to be considered, doesn’t it?
The first player on which I’d focus, though, is Nunez. He’s stockier (5-11, 205) with pop and a converted third baseman. Love the idea that the Cardinals developed him early — they know what they’re doing with this stuff — and he hit .262 in 119 games between the two organizations this past season, with 16 doubles, 23 home runs, 88 RBIs and an .833 OPS.
I’d like to see Nunez strike out a little less (he had 103 in 493 plate appearances in ’22 for a strikeout rate of 20.9%), but I liked that he also walked a career-high 14.0% of the time.
Nunez has also played just five games in Triple-A, and there’s obviously an adjustment there as Mason Martin — yeah, remember him — found out last season. But it should be something fascinating to track this summer.
Jason Mackey: jmackey@post-gazette.com and Twitter @JMackeyPG.
First Published: January 30, 2023, 4:18 p.m.