It’s possible the Oneil Cruz hype train won’t leave the station until the middle of this summer for a variety of reasons — an ongoing lockout by the owners that forces the cancellation of games, service time manipulation, etc.
Whenever he does finally arrive on the scene, however, one of baseball’s leading statistical models is calling for the elite shortstop prospect to make an immediate impact on his moribund Pirates.
Fangraphs’ Dan Szymborski released his annual ZiPS projections for the team late last year, and they’re calling for the 23-year-old to mash 17 home runs and drive in 49 runs in just 361 plate appearances.
Those numbers would immediately make him one of the better power hitters on the team, if not the best. Teammate Bryan Reynolds, for example, is projected to produce a higher raw total of 22 blasts. But ZiPS is giving him 636 plate appearances in which to do it.
Extrapolating Cruz’s numbers to a full season would translate to 29 homers, a total only Josh Bell has hit for the Pirates since Pedro Alvarez led the National League in homers nearly a decade ago.
The model doesn’t expect his defense to be a major drag on his production either, despite questions about whether he can ultimately stick at shortstop in the majors with his 6-foot-7 frame.
ZiPS projects him to be worth 2.5 wins above replacement, which extrapolates to 4.4 WAR over a full season. So it sees a competent player. Certainly good news for a team that doesn’t have nearly enough of them.
As far as the rest of the team goes, here are some highlights and lowlights.
The good
● Ke’Bryan Hayes is expected to bounce back from an injury-marred 2021 nicely with 10 homers and a triple slash line of .254/.319/.400. Still not exactly what you’d hope for from a corner infielder offensively, but plenty good enough when combined with his sparkling defense. ZiPS expects the total package to be worth around 2.5 WAR, and perhaps a bit more if he can stay a bit healthier. The Pirates will take that from a player who’s still growing.
● Travis Swaggerty and Matt Fraizer are two outfield prospects that ZiPS likes quite a bit. While it’s not at all clear what their roles with the organization will be in 2022, the model calls for both to produce double-digit home runs and 1.2 WAR each in close to a full season’s worth of at bats. So put them on your radar as internal options we haven’t seen yet.
● Beyond the big three of Cruz, Hayes and Reynolds, ZiPS has veteran outfielder Greg Allen and infielder Hoy Park as the team’s most valuable hitters. Neither are expected to be worth more than 1.4 WAR or contribute much pop. The model likes their defense, though, so it should be interesting to see whether they can carve out roles as light hitters.
● Speaking of Reynolds, we should probably talk about the Pirates’ best player in his own right. ZiPS sees a little bit of regression from his All-Star season in 2021. His average, on-base and slugging numbers are all expected to decline, dropping his WAR projection to 3.9 from 5.5 on the field a year ago. Still, he should be pretty stinkin’ good for a lineup that badly needs him to be an anchor.
The bad
● The pitching staff is ... woof. Closer David Bednar is the only member of the entire group that ZiPS projects to a sub-4.00 ERA. And no hurlers are projected to be worth more than 1.3 WAR. Not former top prospect Mitch Keller, who’s projected to continue to struggle to a 4.72 ERA. Not Zach Thompson, the starter whose generated some buzz since coming over in the Jacob Stallings trade. ZiPS doesn’t even see him getting 100 innings. And not Jose Quintana, the veteran who signed to play for $2 million earlier this offseason. The model likes his strikeout rate but otherwise considers him fairly ordinary. Prospect Roansy Contreras is a relative source of hope with a projected 4.16 ERA, but the model doesn’t expect us to see much of him in 2022.
● Count ZiPS out on Yoshi Tsutsugo, Vol. 2. The model values the first baseman whom the Pirates re-signed over the winter at just 0.4 WAR with a lackluster triple slash line of .225/.320/.401. He might still have some pop with 15 projected homers. But that’s about all that’s expected of him.
● Not a lot of hope here for veteran infielders Kevin Newman (1.0 WAR) or Cole Tucker (0.8 WAR.) Both are considered reasonably decent defenders, but it’s not enough to overcome punchless offensive numbers.
● Catcher Roberto Perez has been pitched to the fanbase as a reasonable facsimile of Jacob Stallings, who was dealt after winning a Gold Glove and securing a bunch of key hits in 2021. ZiPS strongly disagrees with that assessment, though, projecting him as a major offensive downgrade with a horrendous hitting line of .197/.284/.333. Here’s guessing Pirates fans will be screaming for Stallings if they’re forced to watch that kind of futility all year.
Adam Bittner: abittner@post-gazette.com and Twitter @fugimaster24.
First Published: February 14, 2022, 2:03 p.m.
Updated: February 14, 2022, 2:05 p.m.