Pedro Alvarez is more neutral than Switzerland. If you average his wins above replacement numbers at Fangraphs (0.1) and Baseball Reference (-0.4), you get pretty close to a big, fat objective zero for the number of games his hapless defense and potent offense have combined to win or lose for the Pirates this season.
Turn on talk radio or the local TV stations’ Sunday night sports debate/thunderdome shows, though, and he becomes the most polarizing figure in Pittsburgh sports.
On one side, his apologists point to every home run he hits as a trump card that somehow justifies all the bad things he does on the baseball field. His prodigious power can’t be taught, the logic goes, and the Pirates need to keep a bat with his pop (20 homers so far this season) in the lineup every day to have their best chance, his cement glove be damned.
On the other side, Alvarez’s critics point out not just his majors-leading 18 errors at first base, but advanced stats such as ultimate zone rating and defensive runs saved to make the case against him. He’s not just a bad first baseman, the logic goes. Rather, the numbers say he’s possibly the worst everyday first baseman of his generation, and it’s costing the Pirates. So sit him.
Back and forth these sides exhaustingly debate with little middle ground to be found. The conflict provides great radio and TV. But make no mistake, neither side is coming close to presenting the more boring truth: The Big Bull is a big dog whistle.
Statistically, he’s not helped or hurt the Bucs. His strengths and weaknesses go into the same WAR equation together and come out the other side pretty much at equilibrium.
That’s a departure from earlier this season, when this space noted his WAR numbers were on track to subtract from the Pirates’ win total and argued the Pirates should explore other options at first base. And explore they have.
Since then, Sean Rodriguez has been used more and more frequently as a defensive replacement in the late innings of games in which the Pirates are ahead. Meanwhile, Michael Morse, acquired at the trade deadline from the Los Angeles Dodgers, has absorbed starts against tough lefties, performing fairly well.
The result? Alvarez has been able to fatten up his offensive numbers against righties — usually as a starter, but often in crucial pinch-hit situations — while facing fewer situations in which his defense can really cost the Bucs, allowing him to make up ground in the WAR department.
It’s a savvy piecemeal strategy at the first base position, the effectiveness of which was perhaps best illustrated during the sweep of the Dodgers a couple of weeks ago at PNC Park.
In the first game of the series, Alvarez sat in favor of Morse to start the evening against reigning Cy Young award winner and lefty Clayton Kershaw. This allowed manager Clint Hurdle to deploy Alvarez as a pinch hitter against lefty reliever J.P. Howell with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th inning and the score tied 4-4. Alvarez came up and promptly smacked a single to drive home the winning run.
Then in the series finale against lefty Alex Wood, Alvarez again gave way to Morse until he was brought in to face righty reliever Jim Johnson in the seventh inning with the Pirates down, 5-3. He singled and got to second on an error before Francisco Cervelli singled to score him and Jung Ho Kang to tie the game. The Pirates went on to tally seven more times in the inning on their way to a 13-6 rout made possible because Hurdle was able to call on Alvarez’s big bat against a righty in a critical spot.
This kind of situational approach to using the former National League home run champ isn’t sexy or bold. It’s not the prescription you’ll find in the talkosphere, where sweeping generalizations usually prevail over even a cursory review of relevant data. And it doesn’t make his inconsistency — he homered but had two errors Sunday night against the Giants — any less maddening.
But it’s working for the Pirates, and more importantly, it’s working for Alvarez, who about a month ago was rumored to be on the trading block.
Bottomline, at this stage of his career, the man they call “El Toro” is neither the permanent lineup fixture nor total scrub many rush to label him. He’s a useful player whose fatal flaws can be compensated for with a cerebral and pragmatic approach, one it seems the Pirates have figured out in time to salvage his 2015, and perhaps set the table for a brighter future.
Adam Bittner writes sports commentary for The Pittsburgh Press, the afternoon electronic edition of the Post-Gazette. He can be reached at abittner@post-gazette.com or via Twitter, @fugimaster24.
First Published: August 25, 2015, 8:11 p.m.
