The Penguins will enter Tuesday’s NHL draft lottery with hopes for a high pick but also a wide range of outcomes that more likely will leave them disappointed.
Pittsburgh this season finished with the NHL’s 14th-worst record and therefore cannot ping-pong its way to the top pick in the 2024 draft — which the lucky lottery winner will presumably use to pick Boston University center Macklin Celebrini.
Per NHL rules, the most that a team can move up in the draft lottery is 10 slots.
So the best that team president Kyle Dubas and the Penguins can hope for is the fourth overall pick. That would allow them to choose from a talented pool of players that includes defensemen Sam Dickinson, Artyom Levshunov, Anton Silayev and Carter Yakemchuk and forwards Berkly Catton and Ivan Demidov.
The Penguins have just a 1.5% chance to win the first lottery draw and jump up to No. 4. Win the second and final draw instead and they end up picking fifth.
And if they don’t move up, the Penguins might not have a first-round pick at all.
When Dubas made the blockbuster deal last summer to acquire Erik Karlsson from the San Jose Sharks, he traded a top-10 protected pick out to the Bay Area.
What that means is the Penguins have the option to keep the pick if it lands in the top 10 and instead send their 2025 first-round pick to the Sharks. Doing that would be a no-brainer. Why pass on the chance to draft toward the top this year?
But if the ping-pong balls do not bounce their way and the Penguins’ pick lands in the teens, the Sharks get the pick. Pittsburgh would then retain its 2025 first.
That would be disappointing for the Penguins, who intend to transition into a youth movement this offseason. They would have to wait a year to use the premium pick — and that time matters with Sidney Crosby about to turn 37 this summer.
So, yeah, the Penguins have much at stake in this year’s draft lottery, set to take place Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. ET. It will be televised on ESPN here in the U.S.
If luck is not in their favor in the lottery, there is still a chance the Penguins could pick late in the 2024 first round — but they will need help from an old friend.
The conditional draft pick they acquired from Carolina in the Jake Guentzel trade will become a first-rounder if the Hurricanes make the Stanley Cup Final. If the Hurricanes fall short, the Penguins will instead receive the 44th overall pick in Round 2.
This year’s draft is expected to be held June 28-29 at the Sphere in Las Vegas.
Matt Vensel: mvensel@post-gazette.com and @mattvensel on X
First Published: May 6, 2024, 9:30 a.m.
Updated: May 7, 2024, 3:56 p.m.
