When Kyle Dubas last met with the Pittsburgh media at large back on Dec. 11, when the Penguins were 11-12-3, he said he would give his team until at least the All-Star break to improve before he considered making major moves.
Well, here we are.
The Penguins have since picked up their play a bit and passed a few teams in the Eastern Conference standings. But even though they earned points in 15 of their last 20 games, they are still five points out of a playoff spot today.
That is close enough that Dubas isn’t going to hit the detonator any minute now. But Dubas, in his first season as president of hockey operations, is presumably charting out all of the different paths he could take at the March 8 trade deadline, depending on how the players perform coming out of their bye week.
With a potentially transformative trade deadline looming in just five weeks, let’s take an early look at which Penguins are staying and who could be going. To break it down, we have placed everyone on their roster, along with a few other notable players in the system, into trade buckets depending on their situations.
THE UNTOUCHABLE TIER
Sidney Crosby: Crosby, in the midst of an incredible season for a player of any age, is not going anywhere unless he requests to be traded. He has never given any indication that he might want to play elsewhere. Maybe that changes down the road. But Crosby is not on the market. Sorry, Canada and Colorado.
OTHER NO-TRADE GUYS
Jeff Carter: Carter, along with Crosby and the other players in this bucket, has full movement protection in his contract. That means they can’t be traded or sent to the minors without their permission. So Carter, who hasn’t been that bad in a sheltered role, will finish the final year of his contract in Pittsburgh.
Erik Karlsson: He waived his no-movement clause to come to the Penguins and still has that veto power in his contract. Plus, his $10 million cap hit is prohibitive in its own right. So it would be a surprise if he is traded before the deadline. But that could be something they broach this offseason if things go south.
Other Penguins in this bucket: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Bryan Rust.
THE BURNING QUESTION
Jake Guentzel: Will he still be with the Penguins after the deadline? The answer will have ramifications on the short-term and far-off future of the franchise.
Dubas, who recently suggested he could chat with Guentzel’s agent during the All-Star break, has not tipped his hand when it comes to the star winger. But if he opts to put Guentzel on the trade block in the coming weeks, Guentzel would likely be the best and most sought-after player available on the market.
Given his scoring, sneaky playmaking ability and big-game reputation, he could fetch the Penguins a first-round pick and perhaps also a premium prospect. Or maybe a couple of quality NHL players who have term on their contracts.
But if it is the former and Dubas signals that the Penguins are embarking on a long-term rebuild, what would that mean for Crosby, Malkin and Letang?
IF THEY BECOME SELLERS
Lars Eller: Quietly, Eller has been quite good as their third-line center. And with another year left on his contract, the Penguins shouldn’t just give him away. But Eller, who scored a few massive goals for the Capitals during their Stanley Cup run in 2018, would have appeal to teams looking for help down the middle.
Alex Nedeljkovic: He has cooled off over the last few weeks. But the Penguins might be able to get something for the goalie, who is playing on a one-year deal. One would think they would explore the possibility of re-signing him first.
Reilly Smith: The Penguins’ summer trade for Smith looked like smart business at the time, but thus far, he has been a dud. If the Penguins fall out of the race, they should look to trade him to clear cap space and recoup a draft pick.
TERM BUT COULD BE TEMPTED
Tristan Jarry: Please read this carefully. If Dubas does decide to deal Guentzel and begin a longer-term rebuild, it wouldn’t make much sense for them to hang onto a 28-year-old goalie with injury issues in his past. Otherwise, the Penguins are committed to the two-time All-Star as their primary puck stopper.
We’ll say it again to hammer the point home — it’s only if they plan to rebuild.
Marcus Pettersson: Pettersson, on the other hand, is one to watch if they wave the white flag on this season — and this season alone. The 27-year-old is having a career year. But his contract will expire in 2025, and the Penguins already have three highly paid defensemen in Karlsson, Letang and Ryan Graves.
Other than Guentzel, Pettersson is their most valuable potential trade chip.
Other Penguins in this bucket: Noel Acciari, Drew O’Connor, Rickard Rakell.
NOT MUCH CURRENT VALUE
Pierre-Olivier Joseph: Given that Joseph has been in and out of the lineup this season and that Dubas has started to stockpile other defensemen, you’d think the Penguins would have traded him by now if he had much of any value around the NHL. If they do deal Joseph, the return would probably be minimal.
Ryan Graves: It has been a rocky first season in Pittsburgh for Graves, whose six-year deal has a 12-team no-trade list, according to Capfriendly. There is still hope that Graves will find his footing with the Penguins. But even if they pivoted and tried to trade him, his recent play would limit the number of suitors.
Other Penguins in this bucket: Jansen Harkins, John Ludvig, Valtteri Puustinen, Chad Ruhwedel, Colin White and all those veterans in the minor leagues.
PRECIOUS FUTURE ASSETS
Joel Blomqvist: Pittsburgh’s top goalie prospect is shining in his first season in the American Hockey League. He will play in the AHL’s All-Star Game. The only other goalie in their pipeline is Russian mystery man Sergei Murashov.
Owen Pickering: The defenseman has value, but he is not seen as a blue-chip prospect. He has not made a massive leap since Pittsburgh picked him in the first round in 2022. And he is likely still at least two years from the NHL.
Brayden Yager: The 2023 first-round pick, who was drafted by Dubas, is widely considered to be Pittsburgh’s top prospect. He might not be untouchable, but it would be difficult to justify trading him at the deadline for immediate help.
Also in this bucket: Sam Poulin, a 2024 second-rounder and their 2025 first.
Matt Vensel: mvensel@post-gazette.com and @mattvensel on the website X
First Published: January 31, 2024, 11:00 a.m.
Updated: February 1, 2024, 8:31 p.m.
