We’ll start off our first mailbag in too long with a timely question from an anonymous Penguins fan on Twitter. He or she wants to know what the Penguins could get in a trade if they shopped the 14th overall pick before the NHL draft.
First off, president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas absolutely should see what he can get for that pick, the highest the Penguins have had since 2012.
The Penguins remain, at least for another year or two, committed to trying to build a contender around Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. The odds that a player picked at 14th overall will become an NHL contributor within the next two years are slim. So those two timelines likely will not line up.
That’s not to say Dubas should definitely trade the pick just to do it. It would need to be a deal that makes a difference, supplying coach Mike Sullivan with a top-line player who is preferably in or entering his mid-20s or a true franchise goalie who lifts both the regular season floor and the playoff ceiling.
So which NHL players fit that bill and are also potentially available via trade?
We looked back on recent draft day deals and sifted through the trade speculation from national media outlets to find potential matches for the Penguins.
One of the most prominent players on the block is Senators winger Alex DeBrincat, a two-time 40-goal scorer. He is only 25, within the age range the Penguins should target if they are open to trading that pick. But his unsettled contract status, with one restricted year left, will give some interested teams pause.
If the Penguins don’t have confidence that they will be able to re-sign the Michigan native, they should pass. Just too much to give up for a one-and-done.
Calgary’s Elias Lindholm is another talented forward with one year left on his deal, which is why the Flames are said to be open to dealing him. He’s 28 and was the Selke Trophy runner-up last year. But, again, it would be a gamble to give up that pick with Lindholm hoping to score another large payday.
Two other teams that could look to trade talented forwards are Vancouver and Dubas’ old club up in Toronto. The Penguins last season engaged in serious trade talks centered on Canucks forward and Pittsburgh product J.T. Miller. But, obviously, there is a new regime here, so that ship may have sailed.
A couple others who might make sense in a trade that includes Pittsburgh’s top pick, perhaps with more pieces in the deal, are Arizona center Nick Schmaltz and Colorado defenseman Samuel Girard. Both are good at hockey, in their mid-20s and under contract at reasonable salaries for a few years.
Now, let’s pivot to the goalies, notable with Tristan Jarry set to hit free agency.
John Gibson has reportedly told the Ducks he wants to be dealt and is said to be open to coming home. The Whitehall native, who is about to turn 30, has four more years left on a contract that has a $6.4 million annual salary cap hit. It would be a great story, no doubt. But would it be a wise decision?
Early in his career, Gibson established himself as one of the NHL’s best young goalies. But as the Ducks declined, so did he. He was well below average in Moneypuck’s goals saved above expected stat the last four seasons. Can he turn it around in a different environment? That’s a bold gamble.
Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck and Nashville’s Juuse Saros would be safer bets. Both again ranked among the league’s top puck-stoppers last season and almost singlehandedly lifted their respective clubs into a playoff spot.
Alas, they also are entering the final year of their contracts and with another strong season could command next summer an annual salary north of $8 million. That’s a lot of cash to commit at the most fickle position in the sport.
I’m intrigued by the possibility of the Penguins adding one of those two stars to their crease. But doing so would come with significant downside risk, both in the acquisition cost and the contract they would have to hand out.
Anyway, those are potential candidates for a trade that involves the 14th pick and maybe some other stuff. You tell me which guy they should target.
Shawn K. asks via email which type of right winger would fit best alongside Crosby, perhaps someone more like Patric Hornqvist?
Picking the right winger, no pun intended, to play with Crosby and Jake Guentzel has been a popular parlor game for years. Those two have been quite productive with either Rickard Rakell or Bryan Rust on the right side in recent years. But some fans, such as Shawn here, still covet more size and snarl.
One of the things Shawn advocated for in his email was that he would like to see a tougher linemate who can protect Crosby and Guentzel if needed. I’ll note that there are few players in the NHL who can throw haymakers and also keep up with those two offensively. Like it or not, we are in a new era.
But Shawn’s overall point was that Hornqvist was a strong fit on that line, with his feistiness and his willingness to go to the “dirty areas” enhancing Crosby’s effectiveness down low. Some stats from Sportlogiq back up that belief.
They pulled the numbers from Hornqvist’s last four years here and the two seasons since. Crosby’s lines have averaged about 0.5 more rush chances per 60 minutes since Hornqvist was traded. But when he was next to Hornqvist, Crosby generated more chances via the cycle, the forecheck and on rebounds.
It all added up to four chances per 60 minutes. Now, there are surely other factors at play here, such as Crosby getting older. But that is pretty striking.
So, yeah, maybe Shawn is on to something here. However, acquiring a player like Hornqvist is easier said than done, especially when considering the challenges the roster presents with sizable salaries and no-movement clauses.
@Tha__Problem on Twitter wonders, if I owned the Penguins, to which future positions would I hire Crosby, Malkin and Letang.
I like this question, mostly because it means that I just become a millionaire.
Crosby has future president of hockey operations written all over him should he wish to remain in the game after he retires as a player. I don’t envision coaching in his future, though he would probably thrive in that role, as well.
Letang, a legendary workout warrior, could step right into a position centered on player training and development. Malkin, meanwhile, strikes me as the kind of guy who will spend a decade on the beach after calling it quits. So I’d hire him to work remotely, publishing fire posts as our social media director.
Matt W. asks on Twitter if the Penguins will re-sign Jason Zucker.
This is a tough one to answer because the Penguins have a new head of hockey operations, so their thinking on some of their offseason decisions will change. But I don’t know that the door is completely closed on Zucker’s return.
Obviously, Ron Hextall’s head-scratching trade for Mikael Granlund chewed up $5 million in cap space that could’ve been used to bring back Zucker. But with Dubas now in charge, perhaps the Penguins will look to buy out Granlund. The NHL’s buyout window will open in the next few days, so stay tuned there.
However, the better question here is whether the Penguins should re-sign Zucker, not whether they will. Finally healthy, he was invaluable last season. They needed four or five more guys who played with that kind of fire every night.
But Zucker is 31 with a lengthy injury history. And the Penguins desperately need to get younger and faster. Committing longer term to another 30-something won’t help them accomplish that. The prudent move is to let him walk, even if it would be tough to swallow because he is a likable player and person.
Benjamin S. asks via email which free agents the Penguins will add.
I don’t know if I can pinpoint the players most likely to sign with the Penguins. But I can certainly supply a few free agents worth monitoring this month.
I really like Tyler Bertuzzi. He is a fast and feisty forward with a nose for the net and scoring touch. He always stood out whenever the Penguins played his Red Wings. And then Bertuzzi thrived for the Bruins in the playoffs. I think he would be a fine fit in Pittsburgh, but the Penguins will have to get in line.
Big New Jersey defenseman Ryan Graves, Carolina goalie Frederik Andersen and third-line Colorado center J.T. Compher would also fill various needs.
And you have to figure Dubas will reach out to a few familiar faces, whether they played for him in Toronto or with the Soo Greyhounds of the OHL. I wonder about Michael Bunting, who was with Dubas in both spots. The winger showed in Toronto that he was capable of producing alongside top-line talents.
Another Leafs free agent, Noel Acciari, makes sense in a bottom-six role.
We will explore more potential free agents’ fits in a few articles next week.
Adam, via Twitter, asked me to compare Penguins players to “Ted Lasso” characters and name the reporter most like Trent Crimm.
We’ll finish this mailbag with a fun question from Adam. This is in my wheelhouse, having just binged the critically acclaimed Apple TV show, “Ted Lasso.”
The player whose personality most closely matches Ted Lasso would be Crosby, minus the corny jokes and catchphrases. One of Sid’s many superpowers is his perpetual positivity, so it is no surprise he is a fan of the show.
Brandon Tanev shared some similarities with Dani Rojas, most notably his passion and flowing locks. Pierre-Olivier Joseph, with his smile and blossoming personality, has some Sam Obisanya to him. Like Isaac McAdoo, Brian Dumoulin is a rugged veteran defender who you wouldn’t want taking a penalty shot.
It’s probably not a stretch to peg Letang as Jamie Tartt, the gifted, misunderstood scorer who, with a little wisdom and maturity, became an all-around star.
Unfortunately, there is no one on the Penguins like Roy Kent, my favorite character on the show. In all seriousness, they could use a character like that.
Finally, my buddy Rob Rossi of the Athletic is definitely reporter Trent Crimm — the magnificent hair, probing questions and the promise of a book one day.
Matt Vensel: mvensel@post-gazette.com and Twitter @mattvensel.
First Published: June 13, 2023, 9:30 a.m.
