Is the second week of December too early to stump for an MVP candidate?
No doubt, but that’s precisely what Mike Sullivan did Saturday night after Sidney Crosby scored two more goals to push the Penguins past the Buffalo Sabres.
“He has to be in the conversation in my opinion,” the Penguins coach said. “He’s the leading goal-scorer in the league at 5-on-5. He’s got such a mature game, plays on both sides of the puck. We use him defensively as much as we use him offensively. I just think he’s the most complete player in the game.”
A third of the way through the season, Crosby is indeed building a campaign that could have him in the running for the Hart Trophy. But he is hardly alone.
Connor McDavid is back in pole position for another scoring title. Filipino American sensation Jason Robertson is also on track for 60-plus goals. Mitch Marner is in the midst of a 22-game point streak. Erik Karlsson has turned back the clock. Jack Hughes, Tage Thompson and Linus Ullmark would also like a word.
Some of these standouts will lose steam in the next four months. Other candidates will emerge. Injuries will unfortunately happen. This is a marathon, not a sprint. If Crosby keeps up this pace he should absolutely be in the MVP mix. But that is a debate for March and April, not two weeks before the holiday break.
It is, however, not premature to marvel at what Crosby has been doing. Simply put, Sid is on track for one of the best seasons ever by someone 35 or older.
With 17 goals through 28 games, Crosby is scoring at a 50-goal clip. And he is on pace to put up 111 points, which would be the most since his second year.
Since the Penguins entered the NHL in 1967, only one player, John Bucyk, had a 50-goal season after turning 35, per Stathead. Just four tallied 100 points — Bucyk and fellow Hall of Famers Jean Ratelle, Gordie Howe and Joe Sakic.
If Crosby remains healthy, he will have a shot at joining that select group. He needs 62 points in his final 54 games. He’s averaging 1.36 per game right now.
And, as Sullivan pointed out Saturday, Crosby has done much of that damage at 5-on-5 because the Penguins power play was unproductive until recently.
When Crosby scored a big insurance goal in the 3-1 win over the Sabres, flying solo into their zone and whipping a wrist shot past another overmatched goalie, he pulled into second in the league in even-strength goals. Only Robertson had more.
Crosby also had a NHL-best 31 points at even strength, three more than Karlsson.
Sullivan argued there isn’t a better player in the league at 5-on-5 at the moment.
“It’s just Sid being the best version of himself,” he said. “His line most nights is dominant. They control the play out there regardless who they play against.”
Crosby and current wingmen Jake Guentzel and Rickard Rakell have formed one of the league’s most productive lines. Only six trios have more goals at 5-on-5, per MoneyPuck. Crosby’s line has outscored the opposition, 14-6, to date.
If you’re into advanced statistics, their 58.4 expected goals percentage ranks 15th among the 56 lines that logged more than 120 minutes of ice time together.
“He drives the line. He’s playing with good players, without a doubt. But I think he’s the straw that stirs the drink,” Sullivan said. “He’s quietly had a real good start. And he’s been a big part of the success that we’ve enjoyed here as of late.”
The Penguins have won five games in a row and are 12-2-2 in their last 16.
Crosby has 11 goals, 24 points and a plus-7 rating in those games. He has had as many games (three) with three or more points as he had scoreless nights.
“It’s just impressive how good he is in all aspects of his game,” teammate Brian Dumoulin said after Crosby scored two goals Tuesday. “It’s fun to watch.”
The notion that the NHL is a young man’s league still holds true. The eight other players with at least 17 goals entering Sunday are all under the age of 28.
Crosby will be duking it out with those guys as he tries to add a third Hart Trophy to his resume. The tough, hard-nosed defender known as Father Time could also take a run at him, causing another injury or a decline in his production.
Regression is another concern when it comes to his goal scoring. His 20.5 shooting percentage is above his previous high. His career average is 14.7
Sakic in 2001 was the last 30-something to take home the Hart Trophy. You have to go all the way back to Eddie Shore in 1938 to find a 35-year-old MVP.
It is difficult to calculate Crosby’s MVP odds here in mid-December, when so much around the league can and will change. But no one can debate that what Crosby has done so far, even if it isn’t all that surprising, is still something special.
Matt Vensel: mvensel@post-gazette.com and Twitter @mattvensel.
First Published: December 11, 2022, 6:01 p.m.