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Sabres center Casey Mittelstadt puts the puck past Penguins goaltender Matt Murray during the shootout Saturday, Sept. 28, 2019, at the PPG Paints Arena Uptown.
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Five stats that will shape the Penguins' 2019-20 season

Peter Diana/Post-Gazette

Five stats that will shape the Penguins' 2019-20 season

Odd-man rushes were an issue last year. It's just one stat that will tell this year's story.

The Penguins gathered on a knee around coach Mike Sullivan at PPG Paints Arena on Sunday morning, just hours after dropping the preseason finale against the Buffalo Sabres.

It was time to get to work practicing how to better defend 2-on-1 breaks. But first, the coach delivered a few stern words – and a stat.

"We gave up five of them last night,” Sullivan said, his Boston accent providing a little extra emphasis. “So we might as well get good at it."

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Five 2-on-1 rushes in one game? It’s a striking stat.

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And the worst part for the Penguins is that giving up odd-man rushes wasn’t just a problem on Saturday night. It was an issue all season in 2018-19, including in the first-round playoff loss to the New York Islanders.

It got us to thinking: There are so many factors that decide if an NHL season is a success or not.

Here are the five most important stats that will shape Pittsburgh’s season in 2019-20.

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Opponents’ odd-man rushes

Whether it was the defensemen pinching at inopportune times, forwards failing to cover for the blue liners, carelessness with the puck or simply just a disinterest in playing defense, the Penguins gave up way too many odd-man rushes last year.

Goalie Matt Murray felt the brunt of it. In the 50 games he played, the Penguins’ top goalie faced 88 shots during odd-man rushes. That’s an average of 1.76 per game, by far the most of any goaltender in the NHL. (And that only counts the rushes that ended in shots on goal. Throughout the year, there were many, many more odd-man rushes that were either snuffed out by the Penguins or squandered by the opponent).

Only Washington’s Braden Holtby (1.54 per game), Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy (1.51) and Montreal’s Carey Price (1.47 per game) came close to facing as many shots during odd-man rushes at Murray did.

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Don’t think this is a problem? You obviously didn’t watch the Islanders sweep the Penguins out of the playoffs last year.

Malkin’s 5-on-5 production

Last season was not Evgeni Malkin’s best year — and he knows it.

During training camp, Malkin acknowledge that he was unhappy with last year’s performance. He showed up at the Penguins practice facility in outstanding shape and proclaimed that he wants to prove that he’s “not done yet.”

So far, he’s saying and doing all the right things to have a bounce-back season. But how can we really tell?

Well, look at the 5-on-5 stats. Last year, Malkin had just 11 goals at 5-on-5, his worst total in any season that he played a minimum of 45 games. His 71 penalty minutes during 5-on-5 play were by-far the highest in his career. And his giveaways (66) were also the worst total of his career. Those three stats in particular will help tell the story of Malkin’s 2019-20 season.

Murray’s save percentage on Dec. 17

On Tuesday, Dec. 17 the Penguins will travel to Calgary for a 9 p.m. ET game. We’re circling this game on the calendar not because it’s particularly significant.

Actually, it’s the opposite. It’s utterly unremarkable in every way. Just a random, Tuesday late-night game on the road.

And that’s the point.

The Penguins know what Murray can be when he’s at his best. Just look at the 2016 and 2017 championship banners if you need a reminder if what Murray can be when the skates are the highest.

But the next step for the Penguins is to get consistently elite goaltending on a night-in and night-out basis. He told the Post-Gazette in training camp that consistency is one of his main focuses this season. We don’t even know if Murray will start in Calgary. But if he plays that Tuesday night … or a Friday night in Detroit … or a Thursday night in Toronto like he has in the postseason, the Penguins will be at their best all season, too.

Games played by Letang

Veteran defenseman Kris Letang was named by the NHL Network as one of the league’s top 10 defensemen. Last season, he matched a career high with 16 goals and produced his second-highest point total of his career (56).

When he’s on the ice, Letang is one of the NHL’s best (and most unique) defensemen. But that’s the problem: keeping him on the ice.

Letang has endured a long list of injuries throughout his career. Multiple concussions. A broken toe. Broken foot. Broken hand. An elbow infection. Groin and knee injuries. Numerous unspecified upper- and lower-body injuries. Most notably, he missed several months in the second half of the 2013-14 season after suffering a stroke.

If you add it up, Letang has missed more than 150 games over the last six seasons. While this stat is mostly out of the Penguins’ control, finding a way to keep Letang healthy will keep them in the Stanley Cup hunt.

Number of short-handed goals

For years, the Penguins have produced one of the NHL’s most high-octane power plays. Last year was another example, as they converted on 24.6 percent of opportunities with a man-advantage. That was good enough for fifth-best in the league.

There’s just one problem: They give up way too many short-handed goals.

Fifteen times last season, opponents scored short-handed goals against the Penguins. That was tied with Boston for the worst in the league.

The power play is bound to look different with Phil Kessel gone. In one of the looks the Penguins have showed this preseason, two defensemen (Letang and Justin Schultz) are on the top unit at the same time.

Perhaps more defensively responsible players on the ice can help cut down on this stat. Or maybe just a better recognition of the problem will lead to change. One way or another, it’s a stat that needs to be fixed.

Mike DeFabo: mdefabo@post-gazette.com or on Twitter @MIkeDeFabo.

First Published: September 30, 2019, 3:38 p.m.

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