I was talking myself into getting excited about the Pirates season and probably still am, but the elbow discomfort experienced by Jared Jones has the potential to put a damper on it all.
The best case for the Pirates to contend is that they have a great one-two punch at the top of their rotation and a solid group of pitchers behind them. The Pirates can throw Paul Skenes and Jones twice every five games, and that means they would have a chance to minimize losing streaks and also put themselves in a position for long stretches of winning.
There is obviously more to winning and losing than the top two pitchers in your rotation, but if you can throw two of the best young arms in the National League every time through your rotation, it makes winning a lot easier.
Jones is obviously not out for the season and perhaps won’t even miss a start, but the Pirates will be very cautious with him and make sure that he is not at risk for any further injury before they let him pitch. And that means the best case scenario may be he is ready to pitch for the Pirates’ first home stand, which would be a minor inconvenience.
The worst case is obviously some degree of a long-term injury, but even if he misses five or six starts, that could be significant to the Pirates chances of actually contending. I know, I know — the idea the Pirates can contend might be a pipe dream to some, but the combination of a weak division and a strong pitching staff might be enough.
The Pirates staff isn’t just two deep, though, as Mitch Keller and Bailey Falter provide reasonably good No. 3 and No. 4 options. I like them as the third and fourth starters, but they would be miscast if they have to move up in the rotation. Keller may actually be a little better pitcher than Jones, but Jones has the potential and the stuff to be dominant.
Even last season, Jones was a bit erratic at times, as many rookies are. He was 6-8 with a 4.14 ERA over 22 starts. The key, though, is that he struck out 132 batters in 121 ⅔ innings. His ability to get strikeouts and dominate opposing hitters suggests that, as he gets more experience, he could become one of the best young pitchers in the game.
The Pirates can’t afford to lose good players for any amount of time, as they simply don’t have the depth to overcome key injuries over a sustained period. That’s especially true with their offense, as there just aren’t enough quality bats in the everyday lineup for them to be able to lose a few of them.
And while the Pirates do have some depth among starting pitchers, they don’t have many players with Jones’ stuff to replace him. The Pirates need Jones — and Skenes for that matter — to make as many starts as possible because they both pitch well enough to give them a shot to win every night.
The Pirates have had some bad luck with pitching injuries over the past decade, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that there is real concern that Jones may be out for a long period of time.
There are some interesting younger pitchers the Pirates might have come along during the season. Bubba Chandler is one name we have heard a lot about, but the hope is that the Pirates can get into the season deep enough and still in contention before they add that help. Those younger arms would be really important additions late in the season, but the key is: Can the Pirates get to that point while still playing meaningful games?
In the meantime, the Pirates have less than a week to figure out a backup plan in case Jones isn’t ready. They start the season in Miami then go to Tampa before their home opener on April 4 against the Yankees. Jones would have been slated to start once in that opening road trip, if not twice, but the one benefit to him being delayed is that perhaps he could start the home opener.
The Pirates may still be a year away from truly contending, but they need all hands on deck to make that happen. Even if they don’t contend, they need to at least stretch their relevance later in the season than they have in recent years. This can’t be another year when they are no longer playing meaningful games after about mid-June, as they are now in the sixth year of the current rebuild.
Jones is one of the most important pieces to this team, not just for this year, but beyond. And so for the Pirates’ sake, it is important that he isn’t on the injured list for an extended period of time.
Paul Zeise: pzeise@post-gazette.com or Twitter: @paulzeise
First Published: March 22, 2025, 2:04 p.m.
Updated: March 23, 2025, 1:05 a.m.
