The Steelers play the Ravens on Sunday in what is no doubt the biggest game of the week in the NFL. It is the second week in a row all eyes around the NFL will be on the game involving the Steelers.
This matchup has become the NFL’s best rivalry game. There are older rivalries like Packers-Bears and Washington-Cowboys, but none match the current level of intensity of the Ravens-Steelers games. These two teams have been among the standard bearers in the AFC. There is a lot of hate and respect between the two organizations and the winner of these games is almost always vaulted to the status of Super Bowl contenders.
And of course there is that AFC North title that almost always seems to be decided by these games. Eight of the last 10 AFC North titles have been won by one of these two teams. And this year will be no different.
The magnitude of this game and the history of this rivalry is why there is a buzz about the Steelers this week. There has been plenty of analysis of how the game is going to go, who is going to play a key role, what each team has to do to win and etc.
I’ve listened to and read a lot of it this week, and quite frankly, I think people are making this too difficult. It is really a very simple game to handicap and break down because there is so much familiarity between the two teams.
This game will come down to one simple matchup: the Steelers defense versus Lamar Jackson. Forget the rest of the offense, the tight ends, the running backs — the Steelers’ path to stopping the Ravens boils down to what they do against Jackson.
We know what the Steelers offense will do against the Ravens defense. It will be tough to get a consistent attack going, but Ben Roethlisberger and company will make enough plays to score somewhere between 20 and 28 points.
The Ravens defense will win its share of series, but they won’t be able to keep the Steelers from having at least three or four scoring drives.
So that’s not the side of the ball that matters because there isn’t likely to be much fluctuation from that level of production by the Steelers offense.
The game will then be determined by the Steelers’ ability to contain Jackson. If he runs wild and gets loose in the passing game the Ravens will score 30-plus, but it the Steelers contain him, they will score 17 or less.
That’s not very scientific but this isn’t rocket science; it is football.
And it is for that reason that I believe the Steelers, led by their defense, will win the game. Football is a game of matchups and I love the matchup of the Steelers defense against Jackson and company.
There are three basic things it takes to contain Jackson — speed on defense, a defensive line that wins one on one battles and linebackers and safeties who are good tacklers. If you can force Jackson to stand in the pocket and make throws, it is over for the Ravens. And the Steelers can do just that.
The Ravens offensive line last year was dominant; this year not so much. And they will struggle to handle the Steelers’ front seven all game long. Jackson will get hit from the time the Steelers get off the bus until the time they get back on it to leave the stadium.
Admittedly, the Steelers’ speed on defense took a hit with the loss of Devin Bush, but Robert Spillane is a good tackler who will fill the role adequately. The Steelers won’t allow Jackson to get rolling and will take away the strength of the Ravens offense.
We have seen this show before with Jackson, as teams have proven the formula to beat him is get a lead and make him play catch up. He may some day develop into a dominant passer but he isn’t yet and that’s going to lead to a long day versus the Steelers.
Jackson is a great player, but this is a bad matchup for him and this will be a tough game.
The Steelers defense will dominate the day and when the dust settles, they will have another big win and a commanding lead in the AFC North race.
Paul Zeise: pzeise@post-gazette.com or Twitter: @paulzeise
First Published: October 30, 2020, 5:36 p.m.
