Teams listed in predicted order of finish:
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2022 record: 93-69
New faces: C Willson Contreras, OF Jordan Walker
Central storyline: It's a new era in St. Louis, with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina retired, as the Cardinals attempt to become the first repeat division champs since the Cubs in 2016-17.
Anchored by reigning National League MVP Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado (who finished third), the Cardinals should score enough runs. They're also excellent defensively. But what about the starting pitching?
Adam Wainwright is hurt. There's a lot riding on a potential Jack Flaherty bounce-back and solid performances from Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery and Steven Matz.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
2022 record: 86-76
New faces: C William Contreras, LHP Wade Miley, OF Tyler Naquin, OF/DH Jesse Winker, 1B Luke Voit
Central storyline: If Tyler O'Neill is the biggest offensive X-factor for the Cardinals — and he is — that role is played by Christian Yelich in Milwaukee. The 2018 NL MVP (second place in ’19), Yelich has been a shell of himself the past two seasons, hitting .251 with a .737 OPS.
Winker is an intriguing bounce-back candidate. Injuries affected him in Seattle, but he had a 143 OPS+ in 2021 with the Reds.
Devin Williams is one of the best relievers in baseball, but the Brewers will have a reworked back end of the bullpen. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta must be great.
3. Chicago Cubs
2022 record: 74-88
New faces: SS Dansby Swanson, DH/1B Eric Hosmer, OF Cody Bellinger, RHP Jameson Taillon
Central storyline: It was a busy offseason for the Cubs, who watched Contreras sign with the Cardinals. Tucker Barnhart will replace him, while their big fish was Swanson.
A poor showing could beget more house-cleaning, with Ian Happ (Mt. Lebanon), Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman potentially gone after the season, if not before.
It’s an intriguing landing spot for Bellinger, the 2019 NL MVP who was non-tendered by the Dodgers. The addition of relievers Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer should quietly help.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
2022 record: 62-100
New faces: 1B/DH Ji-Man Choi, 1B/DH Carlos Santana, LHP Rich Hill, C Austin Hedges, RHP Vince Velasquez, OF/DH Andrew McCutchen
Central storyline: It was a busy offseason, one they say was centered around the need to win more games, but will it positively affect change? It starts with pitching.
The Pirates would obviously love for Oneil Cruz to blossom into a star. It would help confidence in the ongoing rebuild to extend Bryan Reynolds before opening day.
Biggest question remains the offense and scoring enough runs. That and the development of young guys — Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae — into reliable contributors.
5. Cincinnati Reds
2022 record: 62-100
New faces: SS Kevin Newman, C Curt Casali, 3B Spencer Steer, 1B/OF Wil Myers
Central storyline: It’s easy to like Cincinnati’s young top three of starting pitchers Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. Not so much about everything else.
The Reds need the 2021 version of Jonathan India, when he won the National League Tookie of the Year. Tyler Stephenson showed promise behind the plate in 2021 but was hurt a lot in ’22.
Follow prospect Elly De La Cruz, a 6-foot-6 switch-hitting shortstop. Once he’s up, head-to-head battles with him and Oneil should be fun.
Central trends
• The division has produced two of the past three NL rookie of the year winners: India in ’21, Williams in ’20. Between Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker and Reds third baseman Spencer Steer, it could be three in four.
• The Central was breezy last season, as four of the top eight in strikeouts came from this group: Pirates, third, 1,497; Brewers, fourth, 1,464; Cubs, sixth, 1,448; and Reds, eighth, 1,430.
• Each of the five division teams has a former MVP: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals; Christian Yelich, Brewers; Cody Bellinger, Cubs; Andrew McCutchen, Pirates; and Joey Votto, Reds.
AROUND THE MAJORS
NL West
The Dodgers Turner’d the page, losing 3B Justin (Red Sox) and SS Trea (Phillies), and they’re counting on prospects for their loaded farm system to come up and produce. They’re also the Dodgers and employ 1B Freddie Freeman, RF Mookie Betts and a host of others. … San Diego has an absurd lineup, with 3B Manny Machado, SS Xander Bogaerts, LF Juan Soto and RF Fernando Tatis Jr., once he returns from a suspension in late April. … If they can’t unseat the Dodgers, maybe the Giants can. They have an intriguing and underrated starting rotating, led by RHP Logan Webb. … Diamondbacks are young but could surprise some people.
NL East
Mets are expected to shell out a record $370 million on payroll, and many are still picking the Braves to win this thing. May be the right move, too. They’ve won the past five and added C Sean Murphy to a stacked lineup. … It’s generally good when you have a pair of three-time Cy Young Award winners atop your rotation as the Mets do with RHPs Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. … This is also the all-injury division: RP Edwin Diaz, 1B Rhys Hoskins, OF/DH Bryce Harper and LHP Jose Quintana are all out. … Phillies tried to address their bullpen by adding LHP Gregory Soto and RHP Craig Kimbrel.
AL West
The loss of 2B Jose Altuve hurts the Astros, but they’re still really good. Watch 1B Jose Abreu, signed this offseason, have a bounce-back year there. … With DH/P Shohei Ohtani, CF Mike Trout and 3B Anthony Rendon, the Angels have to win something at some point, right? Right? Old friend LHP Tyler Anderson was a good pickup for them. … Mariners became such a fun story last season and have a bunch of young talent. CF Julio Rodriguez, LF Jared Kelenic and even 1B Ty France. … Rangers spent a bunch on pitching, headlined by the great RHP Jacob deGrom.
AL Central
Guardians pitched and small-balled their way to a division title in 2022 and may do it again. The Pirates should take note. … 1B/DH Josh Bell and C Mike Zunino will be counted upon to add thump to the Guardians. … Twins get RHP Kenta Maeda back (Tommy John) and added RHP Pablo Lopez to the rotation. … With so much young talent, Tigers should be better than 66-96. … 1B Andrew Vaughn was good for the White Sox in ’22. They need him to be great.
AL East
RF Aaron Judge’s encore will be fascinating to watch, but the Yankees, with LHP Carlos Rodon out, might need him to pitch. They’re still the Yankees. They’ll be fine. … Rays added RHP Zach Eflin this offseason to an already stacked rotation. … Blue Jays made some smart changes, adding RHP Chris Bassitt to the rotation and CF Kevin Kiermaier to the outfield, among other things. Rotation could be outstanding with RHP Alek Manoah and RHP Kevin Gausman, as well. … Red Sox lost a lot: Bogaerts, DH J.D. Martinez, RHP Michael Wacha and RHP Nate Eovaldi. … Orioles are young and fun but are caught in a brutal division.
Jason Mackey: jmackey@post-gazette.com and Twitter @JMackeyPG.
First Published: March 29, 2023, 9:30 a.m.