A region-by-region look at the players and teams that will help define the next month of the sports calendar
East
Favorite: The tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, Duke would have been the favorite to emerge as the champion from the 68-team field whether it held that distinction or not. The Blue Devils’ collection of talent is a nuclear absurdity, with three players projected to be taken among the top five picks in June’s NBA draft, led by national phenomenon Zion Williamson, an unprecedented player in the history of college basketball. Only one of the team’s five losses this season — a two-point setback in late November against Gonzaga — came when it was at full strength. Don’t overthink this one.
Next in line: No. 2 seed Michigan State is a program that’s so successful this time of year that many have taken to replacing ‘March’ with coach Tom Izzo’s last name when reciting the months of the year. The Spartans, the Big Ten regular-season and tournament champion, earned their accolades this season despite a season-ending injury to second-leading scorer Josh Langford, a resiliency buoyed in large part thanks to an all-American season from junior Cassius Winston. With nine wins against top-30 teams, Michigan State has as impressive a collection of victories as almost any team in the sport.
Sleeper: As rumors swirl around coach Buzz Williams and a possible return to his Texas roots (most likely at Texas A&M), his current team at Virginia Tech is the best of his five-year tenure in Blacksburg. The fourth-seeded Hokies finished 24-8 overall and 12-6 in the ACC and did so despite playing 12 games without guard Justin Robinson, perhaps the team’s best player (and at the very least, its most important one). To make a deep run, they would have to knock off Duke in the Sweet 16, but they own a victory this season over the Blue Devils (albeit without Williamson).
Best first-round game: No. 7 Louisville against No. 10 Minnesota. Coach Richard Pitino’s Golden Gophers will get the chance to face off against the program that fired his father 17 months ago. For as starched as the NCAA often appears — and in all likelihood is — who said it doesn’t have a sense of humor?
Upset special: No. 14 Yale over No. 3 LSU. The Tigers have put together one of the best seasons in school history, going 26-6 and winning the SEC regular-season championship, but little has been easy for them of late. Following a report earlier this month that head coach Will Wade was caught by the FBI in a conversation with agency runner Christian Dawkins discussing what appeared to be a payment for a recruit, LSU suspended Wade, who has not yet returned to the sideline. A freshman-and-sophomore-reliant team mired in scandal facing off against an experienced squad that won a tough Ivy League seems like a good recipe for a surprise.
Final Four pick: Duke
South
Favorite: The top seed in the region, Virginia was in line to earn the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed before being surprised by Florida State in the ACC semifinals. Though the Cavaliers are characteristically slow and defensively stingy, they boast perhaps their most offensively dynamic team of coach Tony Bennett’s accomplished tenure at the school. Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome, the team’s junior backcourt, shoot a combined 43.6 percent from 3-point range and wing De’Andre Hunter is a projected top-10 NBA draft pick who was a first-team all-ACC honoree and the conference’s defensive player of the year. The only question about the Hoos is whether they still carry scars from last season’s historic 1-versus-16 loss against UMBC.
Next in line: Few teams boast the kind of experience and physicality that can topple Virginia, but No. 2 seed Tennessee is certainly one of them. Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield (one of the best names in college basketball) and Jordan Bone are as good of a trio as any in the sport, with some impressive depth backing them up, as five Tennessee players average at least 10.5 points per game. The Volunteers slipped a bit late in the season, finishing 29-5 after a 23-1 start, but with wins against Kentucky (twice) and Gonzaga, they have shown they can play with anyone in the country.
Sleeper: It feels strange to label a program with two national championships in the past three years as a sleeper, but we’ve arrived at that point this season with Villanova. After losing the top four scorers from their national-title-winning 2018 squad, the Wildcats had something of a rebuilding year, recording their most losses in six years. Still, they battled impressively, going on to win both the Big East regular season and tournament championships. It’s almost certainly not a serious Final Four contender, but with a handful of key pieces left over from their title team, they’re capable of making an unexpectedly deep run.
Best first-round game: No. 7 Cincinnati against No. 10 Iowa. There’s not a particularly good first-round game in this region and the Bearcats should be able to push past the reeling Hawkeyes, who have lost six of their past eight. But between the perpetually angry, irritable likes of Mick Cronin and Fran McCaffery, there’s a good chance at least one of the head coaches will get kicked out of the game.
Upset special: No. 13 UC Irvine over No. 4 Kansas State. The Anteaters, with a 30-5 record, carry a 16-game win streak into the tournament, where they’ll meet a Wildcats team that is still uncertain of whether standout senior Dean Wade will be healthy enough to play.
Final Four pick: Virginia
Midwest
Favorite: Top seed North Carolina is playing as well as any team in the country right now, as its only losses since Jan. 12 have come against Virginia and a one-point ACC tournament loss against a Duke team with Williamson. The Tar Heels are what they always have been under Roy Williams — fast and offensively explosive, scoring points in bunches and operating at a frenetic pace. Our Lady of Sacred Heart and Pitt graduate Cam Johnson, a graduate transfer, is among the best shooters in the country, Luke Maye is an experienced rebounder to anchor the team’s low post, Coby White has emerged as one of the best freshmen in the sport, a floor general who has keyed the team’s recent surge, and Nassir Little is a lottery pick that comes off the bench. If Carolina doesn’t have it all, it comes awfully close.
Next in line: Obituaries written on No. 2 seed Kentucky after an uncharacteristically slow 10-3 start turned out to be premature. The Wildcats have gone 17-3 since then, with freshmen Keldon Johnson and Tyler Herro maturing into stars, sophomore (and leading scorer) P.J. Washington showing it sometimes behooves players to stay a second year under coach John Calipari and graduate transfer Reid Travis providing some much-needed experience down low. It’s important to note here, too, that the biggest obstacle in the way of Kentucky and the Final Four is one it has already toppled, as it beat North Carolina by eight in Chicago three days before Christmas.
Sleeper: It has been a dream season for No. 7 seed Wofford, which leapt into the top 25 of the major polls for the first time in school history and carries a 20-game win streak into the tournament. Given their accomplishments, with an undefeated conference record and a No. 19 ranking on KenPom.com, one could easily argue that the Terriers are underseeded.
Best first-round game: No. 7 Wofford against No. 10 Seton Hall. A backcourt matchup of Wofford’s Fletcher Magee and Seton Hall’s Myles Powell will be appointment television
Upset special: No. 12 New Mexico State against No. 5 Auburn. There’s almost always at least one 5-versus-12 upset in the NCAA tournament, at least to the point where there’s relative shock if there isn’t one, and this matchup presents a good possibility of creating one. The Aggies are a 30-win team riding a 19-game win streak and very nearly beat a healthy Kansas team, losing by only three in a de-facto road game in Kansas City on Dec. 8.
Final Four pick: Kentucky
West
Favorite: Gonzaga is the team to beat, not only because of its top billing in the region — which turns what had been David for so long into the Goliath it has become — but because of its body of work. The Bulldogs had just two regular-season losses, both away from home against top-two seeds in North Carolina and Tennessee, and is still the only team to beat Duke at its full and terrifying strength. Rui Hachimura is one of the best players in the sport and the fact that one of his own teammates, fellow junior Brandon Clarke, may be even better speaks to the depth of talent Mark Few has assembled in the Pacific Northwest. The last time Gonzaga had this much going for it, it was only a few minutes away from winning the national championship. This group is good enough to take that elusive final step.
Next in line: No. 2 seed Michigan is a dangerous team, sporting the kind of prolific, fun-to-watch offense that has defined coach John Beilein’s squads along with a defense that is the second-best in Division I in adjusted defensive efficiency. Like Gonzaga, the Wolverines are deep, with freshman Ignas Brazdeikis, sophomore Jordan Poole and senior Charles Matthews, a Kentucky transfer, all double-figure scorers while junior guard Zavier Simpson may well be the team’s most important player. Michigan has gone just 11-6 since a 17-0 start, but three of those losses came against Michigan State, which it wouldn’t have to play until the Final Four.
Sleeper: No. 6 seed Buffalo has been a fixture in the top 25 this season and for good reason. After a 21-point rout of Arizona in last year’s tournament propelled the Bulls onto the national radar, they’ve taken a forceful next step. This season, with six of their top seven scorers back, they’re 31-3, with a 12-point road triumph standing as its marquee win. Nate Oats has become one of the most coveted mid-major coaches in the nation, one who Pitt briefly pursued last year before hiring Jeff Capel, and given the kind of program he has built, it’s easy to see why.
Best first-round game: No. 5 Marquette against No. 12 Murray State. The Golden Eagles’ Markus Howard, the No. 6 scorer in Division I at 25 points per game who is sixth among all players in made 3s this season, against the Racers’ Ja Morant, the No. 8 scorer in Division I at 24.6 points per game and a projected top-five NBA draft pick, is the kind of matchup seldom seen this early in the tournament. Savor it.
Upset special: No. 10 Florida over No. 7 Nevada. It’s not much of an upset, but it’s hard to pull the trigger on any other game in the region, other than perhaps the aforementioned Marquette-Murray State matchup. The Wolf Pack has been wildly inconsistent of late, going 5-3 after a 24-1 start and in the tournament, it will get a talented Gators team coming off a run to the SEC tournament semifinals.
Final Four pick: Texas Tech
Craig Meyer: cmeyer@post-gazette.com and Twitter @CraigMeyerPG
First Published: March 18, 2019, 1:44 a.m.
