It isn’t easy to quantify just how bad the Pirates were these past two seasons. But we can try.
In 2020, they posted their worst winning percentage (.317) since 1952. They were lucky the season only lasted 60 games. They were a solid 110-loss team in a normal year.
Last year’s team was so bad that it overachieved by losing 101 games. It also somehow managed to avoid sweeping a single series of more than two games, going 0 for 16 on its chances and becoming only the sixth team in the divisional era (since 1969) to fail to sweep a legitimate series in a 162-game season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
That is remarkable, but so is this: The 2022 Pirates might be worse than their two predecessors —- and I mean no disrespect JB Shuck and the 2019 club, which was horrific in its own right and lost 93 games, but those guys looked like the Big Red Machine compared to what has followed.
Last year’s opening day lineup was better than whatever this one’s will be, at least at the top. The first four hitters last year were Adam Frazier, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Colin Moran.
Take out Reynolds — and the Pirates just might, via trade — and you’re liable to see a batting order without so much as a .270 hitter or 20-home run guy from last season. The rotation might not have as much as a nine-game winner from last year.
I am not ashamed to say I have never heard of multiple members of this team. I did not know, for example, that a man named Greg Allen existed until two days ago. Perhaps I should have. Josh VanMeter also is new to me, although I suppose I should have remembered him from his Cincinnati Reds days.
I do know this: The meter is ticking on the Pirates’ tank job. This better be the last year of reincarnating the ’62 Mets. This better be rock bottom. I’ll actually give the Pirates credit for getting there, because rock bottom is where a tank job must go. We have ample evidence of that across town (Penguins) and across Major League Baseball. But you don’t want to build a house there.
There is little sense living in the middle of the pack in pro sports, and nobody would accuse the Pirates of that. This is unmistakably their worst stretch since the early 1950s. They haven’t lost 100 games in back-to-back seasons since 1954.
Will they accomplish that ignoble feat this season?
Most projections have the Pirates going around 67-95. I think they’re capable of far worse. But let’s consider some of the variables, besides obvious ones such as health ...
• The division.
It stinks. The site fivethirtyeight.com pegs the NL Central as the worst division in baseball, and who could disagree?
The Brewers look strong again, and the Cardinals always contend (and have finished ahead of the Pirates every season of the 21st Century). After that? The Cubs made some interesting moves but are in major transition, and the Reds tore up their roster.
On the other hand, the Pirates drew MLB’s strongest division — the AL East — for interleague play. That means 13 games against potentially formidable foes and three against the Baltimore Orioles, the only team picked to be worse than the Pirates.
On balance, the Pirates should benefit from playing in a weak division.
• Two critical young players.
Those would be Hayes and Mitch Keller. If Hayes returns to his first-year form and Keller begins to fulfill his immense potential — I believe he will make a huge jump this season — the Pirates will look much different.
Diego Castillo, who came over in the Clay Holmes trade (as if you remember there was a Clay Holmes trade), also is an intriguing young player.
At some point, we need to see a future. At least get a glimpse. That’s what happened in the 1950s (Roberto Clemente, Dick Groat, etc.), the 1960s (Willie Stargell, Al Oliver, Steve Blass, etc.), the late 1980s (Barry Bonds, Doug Drabek, Andy Van Slyke) and the years 2011 and ’12, when we were introduced to Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez.
Which brings us to ...
• The farm system.
The complexion of the season could change if and when prospects such as Oneil Cruz and pitcher Roansy Contreras arrive. The plan is to have many more behind them as we move toward the mid 2020s.
The other side of that equation is the prospect of shipping out reasonably productive veterans a la Frazier, Moran and Tyler Anderson last season. I’m just not sure the Pirates have many of those this season.
One thing they will have plenty of is losses.
I’m saying 60-102.
Joe Starkey: jstarkey@post-gazette.com and Twitter @joestarkey1. Joe Starkey can be heard on the “Cook and Joe” show weekdays from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. on 93.7 The Fan.
First Published: April 7, 2022, 9:56 a.m.
Updated: April 7, 2022, 10:22 a.m.