The opinion among Steelers fans regarding head coach Mike Tomlin and his job status seems to be split.
There’s one group that believes Tomlin should lose his job if he can’t beat the Ravens on Saturday night at M&T Bank Stadium. And another that thinks he probably should’ve been fired into the sun long ago.
OK, that’s an exaggeration. I think. Tomlin certainly has his backers, though it’s a wild dynamic, one where he’s more popular outside of Pittsburgh than with locals.
But here’s something on which everyone can and should agree: There are no more excuses.
Regardless of how the Steelers have arrived to this point — a quarterback switch and four-game losing streak, the defense producing at vastly different levels — consider the referendum provided to us by this particular wild card game.
Allow me to start by saying that this comes against a division rival and a team/scenario Tomlin has handled quite well over the years.
Example I: The Steelers have won eight of the past 10 meetings with the Ravens, including four of the previous five in Baltimore.
Example II: Tomlin has won 21 of his 37 games against John Harbaugh.
Example III: The Steelers have won 10 of 12 when facing a division opponent in the postseason. Plus:
• T.J. Watt, who missed last year’s postseason game against the Bills, will play, though we can probably debate his health or effectiveness after injuring his left ankle Dec. 15 at Philadelphia.
The three games since then for Watt: no sacks or quarterback hits and just seven total tackles (two solo), including one for a loss. But look at the Steelers’ record without Watt (1-11, including the postseason). That’s not insignificant.
• Cam Heyward played against the Bills but was a shell of himself, the result of recurring (and nasty-sounding) groin injuries. Not so much anymore. Heyward has been healthy and could’ve easily been named the team’s most valuable player over Watt.
• Minkah Fitzpatrick was similarly banged up by the end of last season, having been inactive for seven of the Steelers’ final 10 games due to hamstring and knee injuries.
Though there have certainly been minor concerns with Donte Jackson’s back, Larry Ogunjobi’s groin, DeShon Elliott’s hamstring or Joey Porter Jr.’s knee, the Steelers defense as a whole has more of its best players healthy.
And thus no easy excuses when facing a team that has dropped five of its past seven in the playoffs while averaging just 16.1 points per game in those contests.
Not only that, Tomlin’s fingerprints were all over the Steelers’ offseason signing of Patrick Queen to a three-year, $41 million contract, the most the organization has ever paid a free agent. How Queen’s up-and-down first season in Pittsburgh ends will say plenty about Tomlin, as well as the true identity of the defense.
Is it more the group that allowed an average of 18.3 points per game while amassing 28 takeaways through the first 13?
Or the one that has permitted 29.8 points per contest while totaling just five takeaways over the past four?
It obviously all links back to Tomlin, whose decision to promote Teryl Austin to defensive coordinator in February 2022 and not do more with Brian Flores while he was here has recently shot up the list of (legitimate) criticisms regarding the Steelers coach.
We’re also not done when it comes to why it’s really beyond make-or-break time for Tomlin on Saturday night.
Offensively, it’s no secret the quarterback dynamic has changed. The last time we did this, Mason Rudolph had saved Christmas — and Steelers fans from having to watch more of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, whose struggles had the Steelers averaging just 16.1 points per game through 15 games in ’23.
Not that it was solely their fault.
Matt Canada played a sizable part. The lousy offensive coordinator hiring (and display of stubbornness) traces directly to Tomlin, whose inability to sprout a coaching tree — or bush or house plant, for crying out loud — remains baffling. After 18 seasons, you’d think there’d be something.
The latest chapter in this saga takes us to Arthur Smith, another hand-picked Tomlin hire and now the third offensive coordinator the Steelers have employed since 2018 — the last time they finished higher than 23rd in total yards gained.
“I just want to see points,” Tomlin said last season after firing Canada. “I want to engineer victory more fluidly, and points do that.”
The search for points and fluidity led to more Tomlin fingerprints in the form of Russell Wilson, a nine-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl-winning quarterback. As this season has evolved, it has also been interesting to observe how Tomlin and Wilson interact with one another.
The conversations about growing up a little over an hour apart in Virginia, their desire to lead and similar career trajectories: sizable success at one point, but recent lulls and wanting to prove that those won’t ultimately define their Hall of Fame careers.
Looking back, we shouldn’t have been surprised Tomlin went from Justin Fields to Wilson despite a 4-2 start. Wilson was always the guy. Now, whether Tomlin’s hand-picked quarterback can shake his own four-game slump (81.3 passer rating, just 5.67 yards per attempt, 14 sacks and four turnovers) should say plenty about both of them.
Unlike the Bills game, the end of the 2021 season (Ben Roethlisberger’s last game) or even the year prior when Ben threw for 501 yards and four touchdowns but also had four picks, Tomlin has someone who better fits what he wants to do: protect the ball and outlast a familiar opponent in a rock fight.
Again, Tomlin has done it before, specifically as it pertains to Lamar Jackson, who still has his lowest passer rating (73.1) against the Steelers and has produced more giveaways (12) than touchdowns (eight) in eight games against them. But the magnitude of how Tomlin handles Jackson and the Ravens this time feels different.
Given the narrative surrounding the Steelers and their aversion to firing coaches, no, it’s never a safe bet to expect that sort of thing — and I still don’t.
However, when the team president says the goal is to win playoff games now, the head coach tries to fix a bunch of stuff, and the drought continues for longer than any other since the Immaculate Reception, it certainly makes you wonder about the viability of their current business model — and when the Rooneys might finally start to think differently about the most powerful man they employ.
First Published: January 11, 2025, 10:30 a.m.
Updated: January 12, 2025, 12:29 a.m.
