As dominant as Paul Skenes was in Milwaukee, matching his career high with 11 strikeouts and riding a wave of momentum into what should be a start at the MLB All-Star Game next week, it’s doubtful anyone will forget Pirates manager Derek Shelton’s decision in the eighth inning on Thursday.
No-hitter going, Skenes at 99 pitches, his efficiency increasing ... and Shelton made what was certainly an unpopular choice by pulling Skenes. It nearly became catastrophic when Colin Holderman allowed two singles and a walk in the eighth before escaping.
Can’t say I love it, but I also don’t have a huge problem with what Shelton did. The odds of completing two more innings in fewer than 20 or so pitches were slim. So Shelton, explaining the Pirates weighed input from Skenes’ stuff and body language, chose to prioritize the future.
OK, fine. The whole industry has become wacky and overly skittish with pitchers. Instead of griping over Shelton’s decision, let's take a minute to discuss the financial or franchise future of a guy who has been arguably the best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball since he debuted.
In other words, make Skenes an offer that would be tough to refuse, a contract extension far exceeding the richest deal in franchise history by trading a boatload of guaranteed cash now for multiple free-agent years later.
No, I don’t think it would be easy. It’s probably impossible. But we're still allowed to dream, right?
In one sense, it would be an incredible amount of money for Skenes right now, the assurance or safety net when it comes to potential injury impressive. And I do believe Skenes legitimately loves playing here.
On the flip side, Skenes could easily look at the trend around baseball when it comes to starting pitchers making gobs of money and believe that it makes zero sense to sign anything long term with the Pirates.
Nobody could fault Skenes for thinking that way. It’s a business. And he’s right: Starting pitchers of Skenes’ potential caliber command upwards of $35 million per season now. Imagine what it will be like in five or six years.
But if you’re the Pirates, isn’t this your only chance of having a bona fide ace beyond his team-controlled years?
The Pirates offering a bunch of guaranteed money now to Skenes carries obvious team risk, as well, though it’s probably more injury-related than whether what we’re seeing is real.
At the same time ... say Skenes would make $10 million in his first year of arbitration. Increase that $5 million per year over the next three. Using very rough and round numbers, that’s $70 million and could be a huge bargain compared to the market for elite starting pitching.
Even buying out two free agent years at $35 million per takes you to $140 million (plus this season and next at around the MLB minimum), which is another reason why it’s tough to see anything getting done.
Skenes doesn’t have a huge incentive to give up those two seasons when a team with a better track record of winning and spending might throw an absurd amount of money at the talented pitcher, meaning the Pirates would have to pay Skenes to change his mind.
Would $175 million do it? What about $200-$250 million? I have no idea. But I do know this: It sure looks like Skenes would be worth it.
Given his current trajectory, there will be as much as Skenes wants with exposure, marketing and ancillary business opportunities. The team would benefit greatly off the field from having Skenes around, as well.
What he does for the city, Pirates fans and the team isn’t easy to quantify, but it’s certainly palpable when you walk around PNC Park on a Skenes Day. There’s a confidence there, a feeling that the big dude with the mustache can’t and won’t be beat.
Attention from around the country has been focused on Skenes the days he starts, the Pirates and PNC Park awash in positive attention.
Think about it, too, from an ownership perspective and how the perception of Bob Nutting could change if he paid Skenes to stick around, represent the Pirates and mow down the opposition.
Again, fun to ponder. But unlikely to happen considering (legitimate) concerns that exist on both sides.
Deals like this have been done in the past, though not to the extreme that I’m suggesting.
Just 24 and entering his third MLB season, the Pirates in 2016 gave Gregory Polanco a five-year, $35 million extension that included two club options. This past December, the Brewers paid Jackson Chourio a record $82 million despite the outfielder having no prior MLB experience. In March 2018, the Phillies signed Scott Kingery for six years, $24 million — and he made his MLB debut that season.
There’s precedent, but obviously Skenes, the favorite for National League Rookie of the Year and a Cy Young Award candidate at this point — ratchets the entire discussion up several notches.
If the Pirates wanted, they could go year-to-year with Skenes, getting a bargain on ace-level performance and also absorbing little risk at a number far more palatable than any we’re discussing.
The benefit for Skenes could be security at a ridiculously early stage of his career.
Pitchers are having a tougher time than ever staying healthy. It’s why Shelton pulled Skenes when he did — because pitching has changed. There’s a huge emphasis on velocity and spin. There’s far less of one on being efficient.
However, given what I’ve seen, I’d have a tough time betting against Skenes. With anything.
Skenes arrived here as a flamethrower but has proven to be so much more. There’s an array of devastating stuff, including one of the best pitches in baseball with his splinker. One that, oh yeah, he only started throwing this year.
There’s been an ability to adjust mid-game, something that takes others a decade to do. His sprints to the finish line are equally as impressive.
Off the field, you couldn’t hand pick someone with better character. As someone who has gotten to know Skenes decently well since I flew down to Bradenton for his first start in affiliated ball, I’d be hard pressed to find a more likable or focused Pittsburgh athlete this side of Sidney Crosby.
It’s so impressive that I don’t care that he’s only made 11 MLB starts. Since his debut, Skenes has been the best pitcher in the game, producing a 1.90 earned-run average and 0.92 WHIP, plus walking just 13 compared to 89 strikeouts in 66 1/3 innings pitched.
The superlatives are dizzying, too, with Thursday’s batch of comparables including Nolan Ryan, Max Scherzer and Kerry Wood.
If Shelton pulled Skenes because he matters too much for the future of this franchise, again, I get it. But I’d like to see the Pirates take an unconventional step to ensure that period of time lasts as long as possible.
Jason Mackey: jmackey@post-gazette.com and @JMackeyPG on X.
First Published: July 12, 2024, 9:30 a.m.
Updated: July 12, 2024, 12:59 p.m.