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Post-Gazette Fantasy Football Fallout: Week 4 waiver adds, cut candidates and trade targets

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Post-Gazette Fantasy Football Fallout: Week 4 waiver adds, cut candidates and trade targets

From C.J. Stroud to De'Von Achane and Tank Dell, rookies reign supreme

Chris Dell is the founder of BettingPredators.com, as well as the lead fantasy football and sports betting analyst on ESPN 97.5’s “Late Hits.” He’s also our new sports editor at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. In his new weekly “Post-Gazette Fantasy Football Favorites” column, Chris will break down his top fantasy players and strategies to win your leagues, in addition to some prop bets along the way. Please note: This article should be considered as opinion, not gambling advice.


Welcome to the Week 4 edition of our ‘Post-Gazette Fantasy Fallout’ series, which focuses on waiver wire targets, roster management and trade strategies to help win your leagues.

Every week, we’ll take a deep dive into the waiver wire waters — and the often-murky trade market streets — to help you identify top players to add, drop, and consider for trades, all in pursuit of that elusive fantasy football title.

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Last weekend, we discussed the importance of not remaining complacent with our rosters.

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We now have three weeks of data under our belts — and while that’s still a tiny sample size, it’s more than enough for us to start identifying potentially growing (and declining) roles.

Staying aggressive on the waiver wire early in the season — as well as in the trade market — will also help keep us ahead of fantasy managers who are still stuck on their draft-day priors.

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Remember, the most successful fantasy managers are the ones who never get married ... to an opinion ... Allowing ourselves the ability to admit we’re wrong — and shift our stance on specific player takes — will give us a better shot at hitting those lottery tickets and “league winners” come fantasy playoff time.

For the sake of brevity (and reality, for most of us), all waiver wire recommendation write-ups below will be set to players who are owned in 25% or less of ESPN leagues as of every Tuesday (the day before most leagues run their waivers).

When it comes to players to cut, we’ll focus on players owned in 50% or more of leagues.

Please note: League sizes, scoring formats, and waiver wire options vary wildly, so if you don’t see a player listed below that you’re considering adding or dropping (or including in a trade), feel free to send me an email (cdell@post-gazette.com) or send a comment or message on X/Twitter (@MaddJournalist). I’ve also included my complete list of FantasyPros waiver wire rankings at the bottom of this article, which includes players who cross our 25% ownership threshold.

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MUST-ADDS: WEEK 4

(must be owned in less than 25% of leagues)

RB. De’Von Achane (16.5% owned) 

There was a reason I wrote up Achane as one of my top three running backs to draft entering the 2023 fantasy season. It wasn’t the smoothest start to the young man’s career, being healthy scratched in Week 1 and getting just one carry in Week 2, but man. Achane set the world on fire in Week 3, totaling 4 TDs, 200+ yards and 50+ fantasy points in the Dolphins’ 70-20 rout of the Broncos. He also saw four targets, something we knew he could excel in during his rookie year after sporting an elite 93rd% college target share at Texas A&M. Achane’s draft capital (2nd round pick) is strong, which means the usage (18 carries, 4 targets) has a good shot to stick, even when aging veteran Jeff Wilson Jr. returns from IR. You’ll likely need to empty the FAAB Brinks truck to get him, but that’s OK. Like Jerome Ford last week, we’re at that point of the season where these types of waiver wonders will stop flowing in. Go all in on the rookie, and put some respect on his last name: it’s pronounced ‘A-chan’; the ‘e’ is silent.

Recommended FAAB bid: up to 100%

 

WR. Tank Dell, Texans (23.5%)

Another player I wrote up in my top three players to add — although this write-up came last week, not in summer like the aforementioned Achane. Dell’s ownership rose from 3.8% to 23.8% this past week, but frankly, that’s nowhere near enough. Unfortunately, we’re still not related, but that doesn’t mean I don’t love the diminutive rookie they call “Tank” in Houston. Dell went OFF to finish as the overall WR6 in Week 3, and he now leads the Houston Texans in targets in both his first two NFL career starts. He almost scored twice on Sunday, which would’ve made him WR3 for the week, right behind only Keenan Allen, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. Dell also earned targets at an ELITE level last year, boasting a 92nd percentile college target share for the Houston Cougars. The Texans are tied for fourth in the league in passing attempts through three games, and Dell has taken full advantage. He’s a locked-in flex starter or WR3 with room for more as the season progresses. Don’t be afraid to bid aggressively on Dell, whose role could actually grow from here and into WR2 territory.

Recommended FAAB bid: up to 35%

 

WR. Jayden Reed, Packers (21.7%)

Like Achane and Dell above, Reed is also a recurring star in our Post-Gazette Fantasy Favorites 2023 series. He made our top waiver list again last week and was also my top sleeper of the week back in Week 1. Make no mistake: Reed has been the best receiver on Green Bay this year by a country mile (move over, Romeo Doubs). His versatility for slot and intermediate routes also makes him a security blanket and deep-play threat for first-year starter Jordan Love, who has struggled mightily with accuracy this season. Reed and Doubs might be tied for the team lead in targets through three weeks, but it's the rookie who has outpaced the second-year Doubs in receptions (11 to 9), yards (148 to 129) and yards per catch (16.4 to 11.7). He dropped two potential touchdowns vs. the Saints in Week 3, and if even just one of those came through, we’d be talking about THE possible top WR pickup in Week 4.

Recommended FAAB bid: up to 30%

 

QB. C.J. Stroud, Texans (11.3%)

Man, Stroud is straight slingin’ it. We all know that volume is king in fantasy football, which is precisely what we’re getting with this Texans offense through three weeks. More than 120 pass attempts for Stroud, that is, which could’ve been a lot higher after a Week 3 outing in which Houston surprisingly led the Jaguars for most of the day and wasn’t forced into heavy passing volume. We all knew that accuracy was one of Stroud’s best traits entering the 2023 NFL draft, and it’s refreshing to see his coaching staff fully embrace that and put the keys to the offense in his hands. Stroud also has been fantastic in limiting — excuse me, erasing — turnovers in his game. He has none through three games to pair with four TD passes, and despite not being known for his wheels, he’s given us a solid three to four scrambles per game. Believe it or not, in the right matchups, Stroud has top-10 QB potential every week in fantasy. If you’ve struggled so far with the likes of Justin Fields or have Anthony Richardson dealing with concussion issues, I’m more than comfortable starting Stroud every week. His 91 pass attempts in Week 1-2 ranked third in the NFL, and both his yards per attempt and completion percentage have now increased every week this season, up to a stellar 9.3 YPA and 66.7%, respectively, in Week 3. Stroud is the type of fantasy asset off waivers that can allow you to sell high or trade off your current fantasy starting QB, get elite WR/RB/TE talent in return, and not skip a beat. Sign me up.

Recommended FAAB bid: up to 20%

 

WR. Josh Downs, Colts (3.2%)

I strongly considered Joshua Palmer for this top-five waiver-add spot, but you know what? Let’s keep this rookie party rolling. Josh Downs is just the latest rookie WR to make a major impact in the first month of his young NFL career. Downs LED the Colts in targets in Week 3, out-pacing the venerable, sure-handed veteran Michael Pittman (12 to 11) and walking away with a more-than-respectable line of 8 catches, 57 yards and a score. Downs’ college 34.1% target share at North Carolina was almost truly in a class of its own (97th percentile), and he boasts impressive athletic traits despite his smaller 5-foot-9 frame. Downs’ burst score (89th percentile) and agility score (86th percentile) ranked far ahead of most wideouts entering the draft in 2023, and he’s already taken over full-time slot receiver duties in Indianapolis. Like Dell/Reed above, these players’ roles will only grow as the weeks move on. And with the way defenses are playing two-high safety at an all-time high rate, it’s going to be these shifty, savvy and athletic slot receivers who eat up and dominate targets in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. Palmer in Los Angeles is a logical candidate to take over the Mike Williams role after his season-ending knee injury, sure. Still, he also faces competition from Quentin Johnston, Gerald Everett and the return of Austin Ekeler. On the other hand, Downs should have a top-two receiving role on a very impressive Shane Steichen-led offense in 2023. I’m still bullish on the rookie even when Anthony Richardson returns at quarterback from his current concussion. 

Recommended FAAB bid: up to 20%


THE BEST OF THE REST

WR. Josh Palmer, Chargers (0.9%)
Recommended FAAB bid: up to 20%

WR. Marvin Mims Jr., Broncos (8.6%)
Recommended FAAB bid: up to 15%

WR. Jameson Williams, Lions (16.1%)
Recommended FAAB bid: up to 15%

TE. Luke Musgrave, Packers (13.3%)
Recommended FAAB bid: up to 15%

WR. Rashee Rice, Chiefs (8.3%)
Recommended FAAB bid: up to 10%

Honorable mention: Robert Woods (23.7%), Chuba Hubbard (20.7%), Kendre Miller (20.1%), Bengals D/ST (18.2%), Jake Ferguson (19.8%), Tank Bigsby (17.8%), Tyjae Spears (15.7%), Kyler Murray (14.0%), Taysom Hill (12.4%), Jonathan Mingo (12.1%), Baker Mayfield (10.0%), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (6.8%), Broncos D/ST (6.4%), Chargers D/ST (5.4%), Alec Pierce (3.5%), Rico Dowdle (2.1%), Latavius Murray (2.0%), Sean Tucker (1.9%), Pierre Strong Jr. (1.9%), Jelani Woods (1.8%), Calvin Austin III (1.6%), Keontay Ingram (1.6%), Melvin Gordon III (1.3%), Joshua Dobbs (1.1%), Nelson Agholor (0.9%), Kenyan Drake (0.6%) Donald Parham Jr. (0.4%), Terrace Marshall Jr. (0.4%), Dontayvion Wicks (0.2%), Olamide Zaccheaus (0.1%), Josh Oliver (0.1%)


FOR SHALLOW/SMALLER LEAGUES

(players owned between 25%-50% of leagues)

  1. Zach Charbonnet, RB (40.3%)

  2. Roschon Johnson, RB (33.4%)

  3. Elijah Moore, WR (50.6%)

  4. Zay Jones, WR (43.9%)

  5. Gerald Everett, TE (32.9%)

  6. Quentin Johnston, WR (46.2%)

  7. Justice Hill, RB (30.7%)

  8. Elijah Mitchell, RB (36.7%)

  9. Ezekiel Elliott, RB (46.8%)

  10. D.J. Chark Jr., WR (43.2%)
    *
    moves down when Bryce Young returns

  11. Michael Gallup, WR (43.8%)

  12. Rashid Shaheed, WR (27.7%)

  13. K.J. Osborn, WR (26.3%)

  14. Rondale Moore, WR (45.9%)

  15. Chig Okonkwo, TE (28.7%)

  16. Matt Breida, RB (26.1%)
    *moves up/down based on Barkley injury

  17. Kendrick Bourne, WR (36.9%)

  18. Tyler Boyd, WR (43.1%)

  19. Romeo Doubs, WR (27.7%)

  20. Jeff Wilson Jr., RB (30.5%)


INJURED RESERVE: I.R. STASHES

(must be listed “O” or “IR” and owned less than 50%)

  1. Jeff Wilson Jr. RB (30.5%)

  2. Kyler Murray, QB (14.5%)

  3. Jelani Woods, TE (1.8%)

  4. Greg Dulcich, TE (11.0%)

  5. Tyquan Thornton, WR (1.4%)

Honorable mention: Kene Nwangwu, RB (0.2%), Keaton Mitchell, RB (0.3%), Justin Shorter, WR (0.1%)


CUT CANDIDATES: MUST-DROPS

(must be owned in more than 50%)

  1. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (58.8%)

  2. Darnell Mooney, WR (52.1%)

  3. Zach Ertz, TE (58.7%)

  4. Dalton Schultz, TE (63.3%)

  5. Dolphins D/ST (68.8%)

  6. Jamaal Williams, RB (62.8%)
    *not worth holding unless it’s on an I.R. spot

  7. AJ Dillon, RB (81.2%)
    *
    let your opponents think they got a “steal/starter” on waivers

  8. Dalvin Cook (84.9%)
    *unless the New York Jets trade for Kirk Cousins, then Cook is forever unstartable

  9. Cole Kmet, TE (76.5%)

  10. David Njoku, TE (79.8%)


MUST-STREAMS: DEFENSE

(must be 25% owned or less)

  1. Chargers vs. Raiders (2.0%)

  2. Bengals at Titans (18.2%)

  3. Broncos at Bears (6.4%)
    *yes, I know they allowed 70 points, but this is the Bears, and we stream against the Bears …

  4. Bucs at Saints (21.1%)

  5. Jaguars vs. Falcons (42.2%)


MUST-STREAMS: KICKER

(must be 25% owned or less)

  1. Jason Sanders, Dolphins @ Bills (10.4%)

  2. Eddy Pineiro, Panthers vs. Vikings (17.8%)

  3. Brandon McManus, Jaguars vs. Falcons in London (24.9%)

  4. Brett Maher, Rams @ Colts (13.2%)

  5. Greg Joseph, Vikings vs. Panthers (7.9%)

  6. Riley Patterson, Lions @ Packers (10.6%)

  7. Chris Boswell, Steelers @ Texans (4.3%)

  8. Ka’imi Fairbairn, Texans vs. Steelers (0.7%)

  9. Dustin Hopkins, Browns vs. Ravens (10.0%),

  10. Will Lutz, Broncos @ Bears (2.4%)

Honorable mention: Nick Folk, Titans vs. Bengals (12.7%)


TOP BUYS: (TRADE FOR)

To qualify for this “buy-low” list:

  • WRs must be ranked outside the top 20 in total fantasy points

  • QBs and RBs must be ranked outside the top 15 in total fantasy points

  • TEs must be ranked outside the top 10 in total fantasy points

QB. Anthony Richardson, Colts
*buy low before he comes back and scores 30+

RB. Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
*owners are frustrated at lack of TDs; buy low while you can; stock can only rise from here

WR. Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
*buy him now before he returns in Week 4

TE. Mark Andrews, Ravens
*he won’t come cheap, but will come discounted

Honorable mention: Daniel Jones (QB), Justin Fields (QB), C.J. Stroud (QB), Geno Smith (QB), Trevor Lawrence (QB), Joe Burrow (QB), Rhamondre Stevenson (RB), Saqoun Barkley (RB), Miles Sanders (RB), Isaih Pacheco (RB), Aaron Jones (RB), David Montgomery (RB), Austin Ekeler (RB), Jordan Addison (WR), A.J. Brown (WR), Ja’Marr Chase (WR), Zay Flowers (WR), Tyler Lockett (WR), Calvin Ridley (WR), Tee Higgins (WR), Jaylen Waddle (WR)


TOP SELLS: (TRADE AWAY)

To qualify for this “sell-high” list:

  • WRs must be ranked inside the top 20 in total fantasy points

  • QBs and RBs must be ranked inside the top 15 in total fantasy points

  • TEs must be ranked inside the top 10 in total fantasy points

QB. Kirk Cousins, Vikings
*this efficiency is impossible to keep up; the market will never be higher than it is now

RB. Raheem Mostert, Dolphins
*cash in your 31-year-old RB chips, and walk away a (fantasy football) millionaire

WR. Puka Nacua, Rams
*great young player, but Kupp will be back; sell now, 10x your returns, and don’t look back

TE. Hunter Henry, Patriots
*he’s still in a TE committee; if he plays well in Week 4, sell him high to a TE-needy team

Honorable mention: Jordan Love (QB), Russell Wilson (QB), Jared Goff (QB), Mac Jones (QB), Deshaun Watson (QB), Brian Robinson (RB), Zack Moss (RB), Jerome Ford (RB), James Conner (RB), Adam Thielen (WR), Tutu Atwell (WR)


Waiver Wire Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

Chris Dell: cdell@post-gazette.com and Twitter @MaddJournalist

First Published: September 26, 2023, 6:43 p.m.

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