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Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb is carted off the field with an injury during the first half of an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday, Sept. 18, 2023, in Pittsburgh.
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Post-Gazette Fantasy Football Fallout: Week 3 waiver adds, cut candidates and trade targets

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Post-Gazette Fantasy Football Fallout: Week 3 waiver adds, cut candidates and trade targets

Chris Dell is the founder of BettingPredators.com, as well as the lead fantasy football and sports betting analyst on ESPN 97.5’s “Late Hits.” He’s also our new sports editor at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. In his new weekly “Post-Gazette Fantasy Football Favorites” column, Chris will break down his top fantasy players and strategies to win your leagues during the 2023 NFL season, in addition to some player prop bets along the way.

Please note: This article should be considered as opinion and not as gambling advice.

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of our ‘Post-Gazette Fantasy Fallout’ series!

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Every week, we’ll take a deep dive into the waiver wire waters — and the often-murky trade market streets — to help you identify top players to add, drop, and consider for trades, all in pursuit of that elusive fantasy football title.

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Last weekend, we discussed the importance of not overreacting after Week 1.

On the contrary, we must not underreact after Week 2.

We now have two full weeks of data under our belts. And while that’s still a very small sample size, it’s often enough for us to start identifying potentially growing (and declining) roles.

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And staying aggressive on the waiver wire early in the season — as well as in the trade market — will often help keep us one step ahead of opposing fantasy managers who are still stuck on their draft-day priors.

Remember, the most successful fantasy managers are the ones who never get married ... to an opinion.

Allowing ourselves the ability to admit we’re wrong — and shift our stance on specific player takes — will give us a better shot at hitting those lottery tickets and “league winners” come fantasy playoff time.

For the sake of brevity, all waiver wire recommendations below will be set to players who are owned in 25% or less of ESPN leagues as of every Tuesday (the day before most leagues run their waiver claims and bids).

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When it comes to players to cut, on the other hand, we’ll focus on players owned in 50% or more of leagues.

Please keep in mind: League sizes, scoring formats, and waiver wire options vary wildly, so if you don’t see a player listed below that you’re considering adding or dropping (or including in a trade), feel free to send me an email (cdell@post-gazette.com) or send a comment or message on X/Twitter (@MaddJournalist).

I’ve also included my complete list of FantasyPros waiver wire rankings at the bottom of this article, which includes players who cross our aforementioned 25% ownership threshold.

Now, without further ado, let’s dive into our top players to add, drop and target in trades for Week 3:

MUST-ADDS (must be owned in 25% or less of ESPN leagues)

RB. Jerome Ford, Browns (9.1% owned)
Nick Chubb is done for the year after suffering a terrible leg/knee injury on Monday Night Football. No matter who your favorite team is or whether he’s on your fantasy squad or not, let’s all send our prayers Chubb’s way. He’s been one of the league’s best pure rushers for years on end, and filling his shoes will be damn near possible … unless we don’t need to? Jerome Ford proved vs. the Steelers in Week 2 that he can be “Diet Chubb” and be more than a capable fantasy starter. Ford erupted for 106 rushing yards on 16 carries — including a long gash of 69 yards - as well as three catches on four targets for 25 receiving yards and a score.

Empty the FAAB (free agent acquisition budget) on Ford if you need RB depth, as potential bell-cow backs like him are few and far between on the waiver wire throughout a typical regular season. The Cleveland coaches showed trust and confidence in Ford in Week 1 when they gave him 15 carries in a backup role to Chubb. With Chubb out for the year, Ford handled 19 touches and tallied 131 all-purpose yards despite playing less than a full game as the starter. 

Expect him to average double-digit touches per game from here on out, with the potential for 20+ touches per game given the right matchup. His role in the receiving game will pay dividends for those in half-PPR (point per reception) and full-PPR scoring leagues as well. In deeper leagues, Pierre Strong Jr. and Kareem Hunt are also worth an add. Cleveland traded for Strong — once buried on New England’s depth chart — last month, and despite a limited role, he still managed to score a rushing touchdown and earn a target. Those numbers might seem small, but remember that the Browns have preferred employing a committee at RB in past years. I believe Ford will play the lead, with either Strong, Hunt or another free agent mixing in. Hunt’s experience with the team makes him a prime free-agent candidate for Cleveland. Hunt has much more juice and tread on the tires than fellow free agent RB Leonard Fournette.

Recommended FAAB bid: up to 100%

WR. Jayden Reed, Packers (13.9%)
The second-round rookie out of Michigan St. is rapidly rising the WR ranks in Green Bay. In just his second career game, Reed paced the Packers in targets (8), which doubled the next-most targeted pass-catcher in Dontayvion Wicks (4) and nearly tripled that of Romeo Doubs (3) and Luke Musgrave (3). Reed didn’t flash the most impressive athletic traits leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft. Still, he possesses a rare 98th-percentile “breakout age” of 18.4, according to PlayerProfiler — one of the youngest ages possible for a college wideout to break out and produce at an elite level, which often signals massive potential for subsequent NFL success. 

Reed all but locked up the Packers’ slot role for Green Bay during training camp and has already established himself as Jordan Love’s safety blanket in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. His two touchdowns in Week 2 also signal the ability to earn not just a team-high overall 32% target share but a team-high red zone target share as well. Reed’s role and efficiency will only grow from here, even when Christian Watson returns. He’s worth a flex spot if you’re hurting for WR depth and could emerge as a bona fide starter sooner rather than later.
Recommended FAAB bid: up to 30%

WR. Tank Dell, Texans (3.8%)
No, we’re not related … (a fantasy analyst could only wish), but despite the fact we share the same surname, Tank Dell possesses one thing I do not: elite athleticism. All jokes aside, my guy Dell can earn targets with the best of ‘em. Dell earned a team-high 10 targets, to be exact, in Week 2, one more than both Nico Collins and Robert Woods. He turned that into a respectable 7 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown, including a long grab of 23 yards. C.J. Stroud has been surprisingly efficient despite an 0-2 start for the Texans, and as this team trails early and often, the pass-catchers will benefit. When the team is trailing, more negative game scripts lead to more pass attempts and more targets. For a short, shifty receiver like Dell — who is now locked into the Texans’ starting slot role after Noah Brown’s injury in Week 1 — he’ll be used early and often as a security blanket by Stroud. Dell boasted a 92nd percentile college target share in his final season at Houston (30.8%) and, in full PPR leagues, was the WR17 in Week 2. As more weeks go on, I expect Dell’s role to grow and Woods’ role to decline, meaning that 10 targets could be just the beginning for a player who was making waves this summer due to his preseason hype.
Recommended FAAB bid: up to 25%

WR. Rashid Shaheed, Saints (25.0%)
Shaheed, through two weeks, trails only Chris Olave for the Saints’ team lead in receiving yards and is the only New Orleans WR to find paydirt this season so far. Shaheed’s target share will likely trail Olave and Michael Thomas for the near future, but his big-play ability cannot be understated. He had a long reception of 45 in Week 1 and 41 in Week 2. The team has only shown the willingness to use him creatively, giving him two carries in its regular-season opener. Jamaal Williams just injured his hamstring on Monday Night Football vs. the Panthers, and Thomas isn’t getting any younger. Shaheed’s role will only grow from here on out. Same goes for his teammate Taysom Hill (8 passing yards, 75 rushing yards, one catch in Week 2).
Recommended FAAB bid: up to 20%

WR. Josh Reynolds, Lions (4.7%)
It’s not the sexiest waiver wire claim you’ll make, but it might be the safest. Reynolds isn’t a new, flashy rookie toy like Reed and Dell. He’s not a second-year breakout candidate like Ford or Shaheed mentioned above, either. What he is, however, is the locked-in No. 2 receiver for one of the league’s most efficient offenses. Jared Goff and the Lions have gone to Reynolds early and often for big plays and red zone opportunities this season, and the seventh-year receiver has delivered. Reynolds is second on Detroit in targets (13) through two games and is the WR12 in full PPR on the year so far. It’s an unlikely pace for him to keep up, but even if he finishes as the WR36 this year, you’ll get quite the bang for your buck.
Recommended FAAB bid: up to 20%

Honorable Mention: Luke Musgrave (17.5%), Jonathan Mingo (14.7%), Tyjae Spears (13.0%), Rashod Bateman (12.6%), Jake Ferguson (12.4%), Baker Mayfield (10.4%), Sam Howell (9.4%),  C.J. Stroud (7.4%), Taysom Hill (6.9%), Robert Woods (6.4%), Kendre Miller (5.9%), Kareem Hunt (5.6%), Jalin Hyatt (4.5%), Matt Breida (1.1%), Craig Reynolds (0.6%), Pierre Strong Jr. (0.2%), Kylen Granson (0.2%), Eric Gray (0.1%)

 

CUT CANDIDATES (must be owned in 50% or more of ESPN leagues)

  • RB. Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs (64.1%)

  • RB. Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots (61.1%)

  • RB. Rashaad Penny, Eagles (55.9%)

  • WR. Tyler Boyd, Bengals (46.6%)

  • WR. DJ Chark Jr., Panthers (51.7%)

  • WR. Michael Gallup, Cowboys (53.6%)

  • WR. Rondale Moore, Cardinals (55.1%)

  • WR. Quentin Johnston, Chargers (57.9%)

  • WR. Darnell Mooney, Bears (60.1%)

  • WR. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Patriots (68.9%)

 

MUST-STREAMS: D/ST (must be 25% owned or less in ESPN leagues)

  • Chiefs vs. Bears (9.7%)

  • Jaguars vs. Texans (12.1%)

  • Seahawks vs. Panthers (4.9%)

  • Titans vs. Browns (3.8%)

  • Rams vs. Bengals (0.9%)

 

MUST-STREAMS: Kickers (must be 25% owned or less in ESPN leagues)

  • Brandon Aubrey, Cowboys @ Cardinals (4.2%)

  • Riley Patterson, Lions vs. Falcons (12.3%)

  • Brett Maher, Rams @ Bengals (9.0%)

  • Nick Folk, Titans @ Browns (12.0%)

  • Dustin Hopkins, Browns vs. Titans (10.5%)

 

FIVE BUYS: (TRADE FOR) TARGETS

  • WR. Mike Williams, Chargers

  • WR Jordan Addison, Vikings

  • WR. Nico Collins, Texans

  • RB. Kyren Williams, Rams

  • RB. Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

  • Honorable Mention: D’Andre Swift (RB), Rachaad White (RB), AJ Brown (WR), Puka Nucua (WR), Hunter Henry (TE)

 

FIVE SELLS: (TRADE AWAY) TARGETS

  • RB. Najee Harris, Steelers

  • RB. Breece Hall, Jets

  • WR. Garrett Wilson, Jets

  • WR. Courtland Sutton, Broncos

  • TE. Kyle Pitts, Falcons

  • Honorable Mention: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR), Romeo Doubs (WR), AJ Dillon (RB), Dameon Pierce (RB), George Kittle (TE)

 

Waiver Wire Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

Chris Dell: cdell@post-gazette.com and Twitter @MaddJournalist

First Published: September 19, 2023, 9:30 a.m.

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