CHICAGO — There’s an old adage in baseball that if you stick around long enough, you’ll see it all. Yet at 37 and in his 17th MLB season, Andrew McCutchen has experienced something new in 2024. Not that he has wanted any part of it.
Seriously, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a hitter who has had worse luck through a longer stretch.
McCutchen has played 35 games and is hitting just .213 with a .698 OPS. That’s actually a decent improvement, as those numbers sat at .175 and .577 as recently as last Friday.
I chatted with McCutchen on Thursday at Wrigley Field to discuss his season and what he’s experienced to this point, asking how he has kept his head screwed on straight despite myriad frustrations.
“It’s not on straight,” McCutchen said with a laugh. “I’ve never really been through something like this in my career, where I was squaring up baseballs and more times than not, getting out.
“At one point, after lining out for the third time in a game, I came into the dugout and was like, ‘I know it sounds crazy, but I feel like I should have 10 or 11 homers.’
“At that time, I had three. I think I had just flown out to left field on a ball hit 105 mph, caught at the wall. What can you do?”
The perception from those who only look at surface-level numbers might be that McCutchen is finished. But it’s inaccurate if you look under at the hood at more process-oriented numbers.
The results have also started to come, with McCutchen hitting .400 (8 for 20), with two homers and a 1.178 OPS over last five entering Saturday’s day game against the Cubs.
The most telling number of McCutchen’s 2024 campaign to this point might be his batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which sat at .256, well below his career mark of .314 and his second-lowest ever behind .242 in 2021.
By most other metrics, including bat speed, barrel rate, hard-hit percentage or his amount of chase, McCutchen has been having a fine season. For example:
• McCutchen’s average bat speed of 73.3 mph puts him in the 74th percentile MLB-wide.
• His barrel rate of 17.6% (97th percentile) crushes his career mark (8.5%) and what he did last year (6.8%).
• When it comes to hard-hit rate, defined as the percentage of balls with an average exit velocity of 95 mph or greater, McCutchen (49.4%) ranks in the 87th percentile.
• Cutch is chasing just 16.1% of the time, which has him in the 99th percentile across both leagues.
“I think he’s sick of hearing, ‘Good swing, Cutch.’ ” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said. “You know it’s going to even out. Cutch has been through this before. He hasn’t changed who he is or how he acts.
“The great thing about the game today is that now we can prove it. We know Cutch has been taking good swings. We just have to continue on that path.”
That’s obviously easier said than done when an offense struggles the way the Pirates’ has through the first 46 games. McCutchen wants to help and has been employing a process that should theoretically net better results.
But when you look at the scoreboard, it looks like a mediocre hitter. McCutchen, of course, knows that’s not true.
“You look at some other stuff to stay positive,” McCutchen said. “Once you do that, you keep pushing. That’s it. That’s all you can do.”
McCutchen then brought up something that I thought was interesting, and it sent me to FanGraphs to examine how unlucky he’s been throughout his career. He’s also right. It was striking when I examined Cutch’s career BABIP and how it compares to his peers.
Consider that, among qualifiers since 2009, a whopping 197 players have fared better than McCutchen (.314). Looking at FanGraphs’ calculation of wins above replacement, Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto (both 55.3) are probably most comparable to McCutchen (52.2).
Goldschmidt has a career BABIP of .346, Votto .336.
“I’ve always gone through periods of bad luck,” McCutchen said. “This year, triple it. I better be player of the month for the next two months if this keeps happening.”
Most respectable from my standpoint: McCutchen hasn’t let it show. The smile and humor remain. You saw him book it around the bases on a homer, right? I loved McCutchen collapsing on the bench after another jaunt. It’s still a game. Laughs are legal.
Sure, there will be those who want to criticize McCutchen because his batting average isn’t good. It’s also a long season. More often than not, results even out over time. The process has been there for McCutchen.
The only thing McCutchen has worried about has been staying out of his own head. He’s done a pretty good job, though he recently received an assist from my good pal Michael McKenry, who sent McCutchen some process-oriented numbers to remind him to stay positive.
On the road, McCutchen tries to stay away from baseball as much as possible, FaceTiming with his family or playing Call of Duty with friends. Anything but agonizing over the string of rotten luck that has defined his season to this point.
“You have to stay the course,” McCutchen said. “You’re doing something right before the ball leaves the bat. The trajectory of wherever that ball ends up is out of your control.
“I’ve been telling myself, ‘Don’t change anything. You have to stay there. Don’t dig yourself a hole that you can’t get out of.’ “
That climb has already started. It’ll be fun to see where it goes.
Jason Mackey: jmackey@post-gazette.com and @JMackeyPG.
First Published: May 19, 2024, 9:30 a.m.
Updated: May 20, 2024, 4:10 p.m.