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Penn State tight end Theo Johnson scores a touchdown during the first half against Michigan State, Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022, in State College.
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2022 bowl projections: Penn State among biggest beneficiaries of rivalry week chaos

AP

2022 bowl projections: Penn State among biggest beneficiaries of rivalry week chaos

Each week, the Post-Gazette compiles bowl projections for Pitt, Penn State and West Virginia from various national outlets. Here’s a look at the picture after the week concluding Saturday, Nov. 26.

Pitt

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: Pinstripe vs. Iowa (New York)

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Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Pinstripe vs. Iowa

Penn State cornerback Kalen King (4) breaks up a pass intended for Michigan State tight end Daniel Barker (9) during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022, in State College, Pa.
Andrew Destin/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Penn State CB Kalen King saved his best for familiar foes in victory against Michigan State

Jerry Palm, CBS: Pinstripe vs. Wisconsin

Brett McMurphy, Action Network: Pinstripe vs. Iowa

Bill Bender, Sporting News: Holiday vs. Oregon (San Diego)

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Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: Military vs. Cincinnati (Annapolis, Md.)

College Football News: Pinstripe vs. Maryland

Unfortunately for the Panthers, weekend upset losses for North Carolina and Clemson don’t really change their bowl math much. The winner when those teams face off in the ACC championship this Saturday will head to the Orange Bowl. The loser will likely go to the Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando. And Florida State will likely snag the enviable Holiday Bowl slot as the best of the rest in the conference pecking order. As we noted last week, that leaves the Panthers in the big pot of teams at 8-4 or worse. Plenty of destinations are possible, as every other ACC bowl has “equal” selection status. The Sun, Duke’s Mayo and Military Bowls all belong on the radar for that reason. The consensus around the Pinstripe Bowl here would seem to be built on the following logic. First, the Panthers were in Charlotte for the ACC title game a year ago, making Duke’s Mayo a bit less desirable for traveling fans. The Military Bowl tends to be a less prominent game given its tie-in with the American Athletic Conference, and Pitt is one of the league’s better teams at 8-4. That leaves the Sun and Pinstripe with proper tie-ins against power conference opponents. And New York is an easier trip for most Pitt fans than El Paso. There are plenty of reasons the league office could see it differently, but for now, the Pinstripe seems to be the path of least resistance for Pitt as we enter the final week before bowl season.

Penn State

Penn State offensive lineman Olu Fashanu (74) looks to block Northwestern defensive lineman Devin O'Rourke (46) during an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, in State College, Pa.
Andrew Destin/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Penn State offensive lineman, projected top draft pick Olu Fashanu returning for 2023 season

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: Cotton vs. Tulane (Arlington, Texas)

Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Cotton vs. Tulane

Jerry Palm, CBS: Cotton vs. Tulane

Brett McMurphy, Action Network: Cotton vs. Tulane

Bill Bender, Sporting News: Cotton vs. Tulane

Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: Cotton vs. Tulane

College Football News: Cotton vs. Tulane

There’s no such ambiguity for the Nittany Lions. They are almost certainly New Year’s Six bound at this point after upset losses by LSU, Oregon and Clemson over the weekend gave them a clear path to a top-eight ranking. The Rose Bowl is still a possibility if USC falls out of the College Football Playoff hunt with a loss in the Pac-12 title game and opens the door for Ohio State to climb back into the top four after a blowout loss to Michigan on Saturday. The Orange Bowl, too, could be an option because Tennessee and Penn State are both virtually assured of New Year’s Six nods at this point. That gives the playoff selection committee the freedom to rank those two teams according to the matchups they’d like to create via the Orange Bowl tie-in to the highest ranked Big Ten or SEC team available after the Rose and Sugar bowl matchups are decided. It’s possible they’d find Penn State against the ACC champion a TV draw too tantalizing to pass up – especially because Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker won’t be available because of injury – and drop the Volunteers below the Lions for that reason. The most likely path at this point, though, is the Cotton Bowl with its two at-large berths. There’s no tie-in resistance for the Lions there, so if the chalk holds, that’s likely where James Franklin and Co. will end up for the second time in the past four seasons.

West Virginia

All projectors: No bowl

The Mountaineers’ upset win over Oklahoma State over the weekend wasn’t enough to get them to the .500 threshold for bowl eligibility. And it’s looking like there will only be one slot available to 5-7 teams to be assigned based on academic scores. Currently, Buffalo is the team in position to claim that bid. Really the only way West Virginia could make the postseason at this point is if a series of teams ahead of it in the academic rankings declined that final slot. So it’s almost certain the Mountaineers will be spending their holidays at home this year.

Adam Bittner: abittner@post-gazette.com and Twitter @fugimaster24.

First Published: November 28, 2022, 3:53 p.m.

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