In the muddled mess that is ACC men’s basketball two months into the 2021-22 season, this much is clear – Duke is the best team.
The Blue Devils look poised to make coach Mike Krzyzewski’s last season less of a retirement tour than a coronation. Through 13 games, they’re 12-1, with only a five-point road loss to Ohio State blemishing their record. They’re No. 2 in the Associated Press poll, making them the only ACC team to be ranked or even receiving votes.
With Duke distancing himself from a lackluster rest of the conference, who, if anyone, might be able to challenge it for a spot atop the league standings? Thus far, these five teams look to stand the best chance.
Note: Records and resumes are based on games through Jan. 4.
North Carolina (10-3, 2-0 ACC)
Why it might contend: The Blue Devils’ stiffest challenge may be from a few miles to their southwest. Coach Hubert Davis inherited a talented squad — albeit one he helped build as an assistant coach — that has five players averaging at least 10 points per game. Though it came against two of the league’s weaker teams, the Tar Heels won their first two ACC games by a combined 43 points. Their three losses all came against teams ranked in the top 20 of the most recent AP poll.
Why it might not: For all of its offensive excellence, North Carolina’s defense has struggled mightily against the best teams on its schedule, giving up 280 points on 223 possessions (a whopping 1.26 points per possession) in losses to Purdue, Tennessee and Kentucky. If they can’t neutralize those teams, can the Tar Heels realistically hang with Duke?
Louisville (9-4, 3-0)
Why it might contend: The Cardinals have been a difficult team to figure out for much of the season, but their resume remains impressive, with a spot atop the ACC standings and wins against solid, perhaps even strong, opponents like Maryland and Mississippi State. Forward Malik Williams, the last remaining recruit of former coach Rick Pitino, is one of the conference’s best players.
Why it might not: Louisville’s road to first place in the standings has been a narrow one, as its three ACC victories came by a combined 12 points and two of them — Georgia Tech and N.C. State — were against teams ranked outside the top 100 nationally on KenPom.com. Losses to Furman, Western Kentucky and DePaul also raise questions about how good the Cardinals actually are.
Miami (11-3, 3-0)
Why it might contend: Tied atop the ACC standings with Louisville are the Hurricanes, who have reeled off seven consecutive wins. Kameron McGusty and Isaiah Wong are two of the league’s best offensive players, averaging a combined 34.8 points per game and both shooting better than 50% from the field. Four of their victories during their current win streak came against major-conference opponents.
Why it might not: Miami’s record is its record, but there might be a fool’s gold quality to it. It struggled to put away Florida Atlantic and Fordham earlier in the season and lost to Alabama and Dayton by a combined 48 points. KenPom ranks the Canes as the nation’s sixth-luckiest team.
Wake Forest (12-3, 2-2)
Why it might contend: The Demon Deacons have been the surprise of the ACC season to this point, having already doubled their win total from the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season. With a trio of transfers leading the way — more on one of them later — coach Steve Forbes’ team is 39th nationally in offensive efficiency per KenPom, up from 191 last season.
Why it might not: Wake’s hot start has fizzled a bit in the early stages of ACC play, with losses at Louisville and Miami. Its defense has been porous at times, though in its most recent game, it held Florida State to 54 points on 78 possessions.
Virginia (9-5, 3-1)
Why it might contend: If nothing else, the Cavaliers are a decorated program accustomed to winning, with a couple of holdovers from their 2019 national championship team still on the roster (most notably, guard Kihei Clark). Their 3-1 mark so far in the ACC could be a hopeful sign that, like its 2019-20 team that finished second in the league, a squad that had to replace much of its roster from the previous year is starting to jell under the careful control of coach Tony Bennett.
Why it might not: Even with the wins, Virginia still isn’t particularly impressive. Its defense, a program trademark, is 55th nationally in efficiency, which would be its lowest ranking since the 2010-11 season. The Cavaliers also have dropped games this season to Navy and James Madison.
Numbers game
43.9: Percentage of points Syracuse’s opponents are scoring from 3-point range this season, the second-highest mark among 358 Division I programs. On Monday, Orange coach Jim Boeheim went so far as to say his team’s defense has “been a disgrace.”
Keep an eye on
Alondes Williams: The Oklahoma transfer has been a revelation for Wake Forest, averaging 20.1 points and 5.1 assists per game, both of which rank the 6-foot-5 guard among the top two players in the conference in those categories. Last season at Oklahoma, Williams averaged 6.7 points and 1.3 assists in 18.5 minutes per game. Without question, he has been one of the ACC’s best players thus far this season.
Game of the week
No. 2 Duke at Wake Forest, Jan. 12: The Blue Devils’ lone loss this season came in their only road game, making this matchup more than just a test of the Demon Deacons’ ability to contend with the top teams in the conference. Wake Forest’s early-season success should reignite what used to be one of the league’s most raucous home-court environments.
Craig Meyer: cmeyer@post-gazette.com and Twitter @CraigMeyerPG
First Published: January 6, 2022, 12:00 p.m.
Updated: January 6, 2022, 1:10 p.m.
