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Pitt running back Israel Abanikanda carries against Clemson safety Nolan Turner in the second quarter, Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021, at Heinz Field.
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10 stats that could decide the ACC championship game

Matt Freed/Post-Gazette

10 stats that could decide the ACC championship game

The last time Pitt and Wake Forest played was 2018, when Kenny Pickett operated from a run-heavy offense, Sam Hartman nursed a broken leg, and the Panthers won in Winston-Salem, N.C., to capture the ACC Coastal division title.

The teams that will meet in Saturday’s ACC championship are different than they were three years ago. These Panthers and Demon Deacons are as high-flying as they come with unique identities in all three phases of the game.

The matchup is being billed as Pickett vs. Hartman, and that quarterback duel will certainly play a role. But there’s more to this weekend’s title game. Here are 10 stats to keep in mind when watching Pitt and Wake Forest square off in Charlotte.

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The number of the ACC’s 56 conference games this season that were decided by one possession or less. That’s the most of any conference in college football. Say what you will about the ACC this year, but that’s competition across the board. Saturday is projected to be similar with Pitt opening as a three-point betting favorite.

89.5%

Wake Forest placekicker Nick Sciba’s career field goal conversion rate, which is tied for second all-time in the NCAA record books. Couple his four-year experience with Pitt kicker Sam Scarton’s effective debut season (16 of 19, 84.2%), and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a tight game determined by which kicker comes up in the clutch.

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209.6

The average number of rushing yards Wake Forest allows per game, ranking 118th out of 130 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams. The only ACC defense that allows more rushing yards per game is Virginia — a team Pitt’s running backs ripped through for 185 yards on 30 carries. Starting tailback Israel Abanikanda left the Virginia game with an injury and did not travel to Syracuse last week. But Narduzzi said Abanikanda (team-leading 5.32 yards per carry) will be available Saturday.

2.95 seconds

The average amount of time Wake Forest’s Sam Hartman has to throw on his passing attempts, second-most among FBS quarterbacks (minimum 300 dropbacks), per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Right behind him is Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, whose 2.91 seconds to throw ranks fourth nationally. Will either be disrupted? And how often?

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84.6

Calijah Kancey’s PFF pass-rushing grade, which ranks ninth-best among FBS interior defensive linemen (minimum 200 snaps). The Pitt game-wrecker was named first-team All-ACC earlier this week and could be the one that applies pressure on Hartman and Wake Forest’s mesh point. Keep an eye on Pitt’s other No. 8.

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The number of receptions of 30-plus yards by Wake Forest’s A.T. Perry and Jaquarii Roberson, most of any duo in the country. When Hartman is afforded time, he tends to target Perry and Roberson, who can make things happen after the catch. Pitt’s Jordan Addison has had plenty of opportunities, too. His 28 catches of 20-plus yards ranks first among all FBS receivers.

10

The number of rushing touchdowns Hartman has, more than anyone on either team. Hartman, a 6-foot-1, 208-pounder who’s willing to get hit, is Wake Forest’s best goal-line option. The yardage on his touchdown runs are as follows: 4, 1, 1, 8, 26, 4, 6, 21, 5 and 7.

76.9%

The percentage of Gavin Bartholomew’s catches (10 of 13) over the last five games that have gone for touchdowns or first downs. Pitt’s true freshman tight end has seen his involvement grow week by week. In the regular season finale at Syracuse, he caught all five targets for 50 yards — both career highs.

0.92

Wake Forest’s turnover margin per game, tops in the ACC and tied for sixth nationally. Hartman has turned the ball over, throwing 10 interceptions to go with his 34 touchdown passes. But the Demon Deacons have backed him up, creating 27 turnovers (14 fumbles recovered, 13 INTs). Among Power Five teams, only Iowa has more takeaways this season.

31.3%

Pitt’s defensive third-down conversion rate allowed, which ranks sixth-best in the country. On the flip side, Wake Forest’s offensive third-down conversion rate is 50.8%, also sixth-best nationally. Third-down, high-leverage scenarios should play a key role in determining who hoists the ACC trophy at Bank of America Stadium on Saturday.

Johnny McGonigal: jmcgonigal@post-gazette.com and Twitter @jmcgonigal9

First Published: December 2, 2021, 8:50 p.m.
Updated: December 3, 2021, 6:45 p.m.

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