Native Pennsylvanians like myself are still getting used to the idea. With Florida now a deeper red, Pennsylvania looms as perhaps the most important swing state in the 2024 election. Sure, we’ve called ourselves the Keystone State forever – but excluding stone masons, few of us have any idea what a keystone is or why you’d want to be one.
The 2022 election made it clear, however, that Pennsylvania has earned its spot as the keystone of the arch. In a race that cost over $312 million, populist Democratic lieutenant governor John Fetterman beat Republican Mehmet Oz by a convincing margin to secure Senate control for the Democrats. In the other marquee race, state attorney general Josh Shapiro obliterated the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, by almost fifteen points — perhaps the most visceral defeat suffered by the Grand Old Party’s Trump faction anywhere in the country.
Every political podcaster and prognosticator has tried to explain went on in Pennsylvania. One message seems to have eluded most observers: the critical role that Independent voters — the Rodney Dangerfield of voter segments — played in the outcome. The state’s 1.1 million independent voters now swing close elections in Pennsylvania, but they don’t neatly fit the convenient red team–blue team narrative that the political class clings to.
Almost all Democrats vote for Democrats, and the same goes for Republicans. But in 2016, independents went +7 for Donald Trump (a race he won by 44,000 votes). In 2020, they went +8 for Joe Biden (when he won by 82,000 votes). That’s a swing of 15 points.
In 2022, Pennsylvania independents voted for Josh Shapiro by an. almost 2 to 1 margin (64 to 33) and for John Fetterman by 58 to 38. And while exit polling doesn’t offer much insight on state legislative races, it’s likely that independent voters swung tight races in those chambers as well (an incumbent GOP state house member, Todd Stephens, lost by less than 50 votes).
Granted, because of redistricting and population sorting, there weren’t that many tight state legislative races: 90% were effectively decided in the primary, meaning that those races had an uncontested general election, or the victor won by more than 10 points. But that fact makes the competition for Independent voters even more significant, given that the Democrats needed to attract a solid majority to flip 13 seats.
Growing awareness of the impact that Independent voters have on both statewide and down-ballot races should encourage both parties to repeal closed primaries in Pennsylvania and allow independent voters to choose a party primary in which to participate. Since independent voters swing general elections, Democrats and Republicans both would be wise to court them earlier in the election process by including them in the primary elections.
According to the National Conference of State Legislators, Pennsylvania is one of only nine states that still bans independent voters from participating in primaries. This despite the fact that half of all veterans are political independents and two-thirds of voters aged 18 to 39 in a recent poll support ending closed primaries.
Former Pennsylvania GOP and Democratic leaders Alan Novak and T.J. Rooney back the repeal of closed primaries. They note that allowing Independents to vote in primaries would give the parties more time to understand and court those voters — a “try before you buy” strategy that could prove beneficial in a tight general election.
These efforts may gain tailwinds as Pennsylvania enters the municipal election season in 2023. Pennsylvania is the land of local governments (close to 4,000, including school districts). Borough councils, township supervisors, school board members, local judges, and a few mayors will be elected in 2023.
Remember that old line, “There’s no Republican or Democratic way to fill a pothole”? If that’s the case, many Independent voters ask, why don’t they get a chance to vote for their favorite pothole-filler? Another head-scratcher: candidates for local school boards and local judges can cross-file on another party line, which suggests that these are nonpartisan or at least bipartisan roles. But Independent voters again sit on the sideline even for races that decide who leads their kids’ school district.
Bills to ensure that all voters can vote in all elections have been gaining traction in recent years (in 2019, such a bill passed the state Senate 42 to 8, with strong bipartisan support) and will soon be dropping into the legislative hopper for the 2023-24 legislative session. Pennsylvania just might be primed to reclaim its birthright of independence — and Independents.
David Thornburgh, son of former GOP governor and U.S. attorney general Dick Thornburgh, chairs Ballot PA.
First Published: December 12, 2022, 5:00 a.m.
