How does a candidate win the nation's most important swing state when it's part Midwest, part North East and part Appalachia, and so evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans? Only one percent of the vote separated President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania in the 2020 election, with even less between President Trump and Secretary Hillary Clinton in 2016. Pennsylvania is the only state with an evenly split congressional delegation, and the governor's mansion is rarely occupied by the same party in consecutive election cycles.
This November’s Senate race pits Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor and Democratic nominee John Fetterman against well known celebrity and Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz. The race for Governor features Pennsylvania Attorney General and Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro vs. Pennsylvania State Senator and GOP nominee Doug Mastriano.
Campaigns in the Keystone State are won in the trenches, and the key to success could not be clearer: Show up.
Here’s how.
From Andrew Carnegie and the steel mills in Pittsburgh to the SEIU and its 80,000 members, the roots of organized labor run deep and wide in Pennsylvania. Unions have left an indelible mark on Pennsylvania, with the Commonwealth having 700,000 union employees, amongst the most in the country. Historically the bedrock of Democratic political strength, labor has been shifting toward the right in recent elections.
Not only do labor unions mold elections through the votes they influence, but the strongest unions put boots on the ground for their candidates: knocking on doors, making calls, putting up yard signs, and recruiting volunteers. These are critical components of a successful ground game, arguably the most important department of a campaign.
To receive this support, a candidate must earn a union’s endorsement, a competitive process with a rather simple formula — show up for organized labor, every time. Show up not just to give speeches, and not just when it’s politically convenient, but show up with a positive voting record for organized labor. While being the union candidate is a significant advantage, labor support alone isn’t enough.
There’s a growing divide between urban and rural America, in Pennsylvania and nationally. In Pennsylvania, 48 of 67 counties are rural and just a few urban counties surrounding Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are home to over half the state’s population. The progressive candidates who gain ground in rural America and the conservative candidates who avoid a landslide defeat in the cities will carve out a serious advantage.
But in a political and cultural climate where rural and urban voters are more divided than ever, how could a progressive candidate from Pittsburgh sway voters in York County? How can a conservative candidate from Franklin County relate to liberals in Philadelphia? It’s simple — again, show up.
Candidates routinely pack their schedules with meetings and events sponsored by their local parties. But criss-crossing the state to shake hands with local party stalwarts is often a waste of a candidate’s most valuable resource — time.
Rarely are new voters reached at these gatherings, and all too often candidates recite the same speech about how important this election is. In a primary election these insider events are valuable, but not in a nationally watched general election in the most competitive state in the country.
A Democrat visiting rural hospitals and discussing strengthening Medicare, or a Republican talking about rising crime in Philadelphia are examples of ways to show up and persuade new voters. Candidates might be often rejected in these scenarios, but if they win just a few votes each day, they will achieve more than giving a speech at their local party dinner.
Earning labor support and bridging the divide between rural and urban communities are the keys to winning in Pennsylvania — both of which are achievable for candidates who make a sincere and sustained effort to show up for these constituencies. With so many disillusioned voters in today’s deeply polarized political climate, authenticity will be a driving force at the polls.
Now more than ever, with polling particularly tight in the Senate race, the candidates who show up and sell their authenticity will build the broadest coalition, staking a claim to the state’s 1.3 million independent voters.
While the path to victory for Attorney General Shapiro and State Senator Mastriano, Lieutenant Governor Fetterman and Dr. Oz has been set, look to their successes or failures as a beacon for national politicians in 2024. The winners in Pennsylvania will provide candidates with a road map to Pennsylvania Avenue in 2024.
Zach Kennedy, a Pittsburgh native, is a project director at Firehouse Strategies. He has worked on a number of high-level judicial, state and federal campaigns in Pennsylvania.
First Published: October 25, 2022, 4:00 a.m.
