Over the past several years, progressive Democrats have become increasingly vocal in their support for electric vehicles, or EVs. They push hard for government policies that will quickly transition 100% of the nation’s cars and trucks to EVs.
Leading progressive lawmakers like Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., have championed the “the Green New Deal.” It calls for “reaching 100 percent renewable energy for electricity and transportation by no later than 2030” — just 8 years from now.
While this goal should be lauded, the fact is that we are in a hyper-partisan world in which the Democrats and Republicans are closely matched in electoral strength. If Democrats lose their majorities in November, there will be two or more years when nothing gets done to reverse the effects of climate change. The question is: Will strong support for EVs help or hurt the Democrats’ chances?
Let’s look at Pennsylvania. As Democrats try to keep control of Congress in the midterm elections this fall, a few races in Pennsylvania will be critical. A pollster in Washington, I was hired by a group called Centrist Democrats of America (CDA) to conduct a survey to determine how people feel about EVs — especially as Pennsylvanians cope with the high price of fueling their vehicles.
The head of the group is a former Democratic Massachusetts legislator who, for nearly two decades, represented a rural and heavily working-class district. The organization seeks to help all Democrats better communicate with centrist voters.
Undoubtedly, a fully electric national vehicle fleet would reduce dangerous tailpipe emissions, end our dependence on petroleum and help fight the existential threat of climate change. But for Democrats, politically speaking, holding on to majorities in Congress for the next two years is the critical goal for any future advancements in environmental issues (among many others).
The poll results paint a pretty clear picture that Democrats should be wary of pushing Pennsylvania voters too hard on EVs. (Three-quarters of those surveyed were “definitely” going to vote and the rest would “probably” vote.)
Though 95% of respondents are either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about the high costs of gas and oil, only 6% say they are “very likely” to purchase an EV in the next two to three years. For the other 94%, expense was a top concern.
When asked how Congress should prioritize spending, issues that were most appealing were funding for: “ending childhood hunger,” “fixing our roads and bridges,” with “police training and hiring” and “wind and solar energy” tied for third. Coming in dead last, after more funding for building schools and public transportation, was “more funding for increasing the number of electric vehicles.”
Only 6% of respondents strongly support adding “an additional charge on people’s electrical bill to help fund the building of charging stations for electric vehicles.”
Keep in mind, the poll was taken as the nation was dealing with high gasoline prices. If there was ever a time that people would be supportive of EVs, it seemingly should be now. Yet, when respondents were asked about their opinions on ways to deal with these record high gas prices, support for policies to promote EVs (like investing in EV infrastructure and charges on people’s power bills to pay for charging stations) again came in last behind other options like “Temporarily stop charging state and federal taxes on gas” and “Releasing 1 million barrels a day from the national strategic reserve.”
In some good news for Democrats, it seems like Congress will pass the Inflation Reduction Act, which addresses climate change and very smartly has caps on EV tax breaks for both wealthy purchasers and expensive luxury EVs. Whether or not that helps Democrats win some key midterm elections is anyone’s guess, but it certainly won’t hurt the cause. Strong support for EVs might.
Stefan Hankin is the CEO of Lincoln Park Strategies, a polling firm in Washington, DC.
First Published: August 12, 2022, 4:00 a.m.
