(Editor’s Note: What follows is a fantasy that is almost certain not to unfold quite as described here. It is, perhaps, however, less unlikely than Donald Trump’s election in 2016 would have seemed three years prior.)
DETROIT, Nov. 6, 2024
There is probably a professional gambler somewhere who is glumly calculating how rich he would be if, in early 2022, he had bet on Joe Biden to win not only re-election, but also more than 400 electoral votes — the most of any President-elect since 1988.
But that is exactly what happened.
Donald Trump’s second defeat was essentially sealed in April when Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, and a few other figures announced the Republican Party they knew and loved had been hijacked “by an unprincipled and unconstitutional gang,” and that they were forming the Loyal Republican Party to give voters a principled alternative.
“Even if we don’t win, we will give voters who believe in the principles of a free market, a strong defense, and our Constitution someone they can support,” Ms. Cheney said when she and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich accepted the new party’s nominations for president and vice president.
Some hoped, briefly, the new ticket might send the election into the House of Representatives, but that quickly faded, partly because of something you might call The Amazing Resurrection of Joe Biden.
People started finding his occasional verbal slips appealing and his grandfatherly demeanor a charming and welcome contrast to the nastiness of the two warring GOP factions. Throughout much of the campaign, they seemed more interested in attacking each other than the Democrats.
President Biden was certainly helped by the fairly rapid decrease in inflation, which had fallen to 2.7% by early 2024, and the rapid dwindling number of coronavirus cases and deaths after the omicron wave flamed out in late summer of 2022.
Mr. Trump caught a break when he managed to stall most of the legal proceedings against him. He breezed to his third presidential nomination, brushing off Florida’s Ron DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
He briefly surged into a polling lead when he announced South Carolina’s Nikki Haley would be his running mate. But his campaign was fatally wounded when in August, before an open microphone, he called Ms. Cheney a truly unprintable four-letter word. Ms. Haley declined the nomination, and was replaced by South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem after Mr. Trump awkwardly apologized for his verbal gaffe.
The Biden campaign was also helped by a reassessment of the once-unpopular Vice President Kamala Harris, who risked her life to save a child victim of the 2023 hurricanes. She also bested Russia’s Vladimir Putin during an impromptu debate when she stood in for Mr. Biden at a summit.
In 2022, Republicans gained 25 seats and won control of the U.S. House of Representatives. With many more vulnerable Republican seats at stake, however, the GOP’s control of the House did little more than showcase their factional wars. Meantime, Democrats strengthened their hold on the U.S. Senate.
Mr. Biden also blatantly copied Harry Truman’s 1948 attack against a “do-nothing Congress.” When the House refused to pass his new agenda, including middle-class tax cuts and college financial aid, he successfully pleaded with voters to give him a legislature that would do just that.
The President’s margin slipped in the final days of the campaign, as some GOP voters returned to the Trump fold after it became clear that the Cheney-Kasich ticket couldn’t win, but the margin was convincing enough. Mr. Biden won 49% to 36% for Mr. Trump and 13% for the Cheney-Kasich ticket, which did manage to carry Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming.
Mr. Trump won only the farm states from North Dakota to Oklahoma, West Virginia, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina, plus Kentucky and Tennessee. Democrats regained control of both houses of Congress.
Though the election was decisive, the result left many questions unanswered: Could Republicans reinvent themselves as a center-right party, appealing to independents, recognizing legitimate authority, and occasionally engaging in bipartisan cooperation?
Could Democrats somehow reach the tens of millions of Trump supporters who plainly believe they are anti-American, or worse?
Would either party propose realistic solutions for the economic future of the declining industrial and manufacturing cities of the heart of the nation, like Toledo and Detroit?
Those questions are likely far more important than any single presidential election — and will be much, much harder to solve.
Jack Lessenberry is a former Blade national editor. He can be reached by email at omblade@aol.com.
First Published: February 15, 2022, 5:00 a.m.
