This story was updated at 7:45 p.m. on Wednesday, April 27, 2022.
POKROVSK, Ukraine — Russia cut off natural gas to NATO members Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday and threatened to do the same to other countries, using its most essential export in what was seen as a bid to punish and divide the West over its support for Ukraine.
The move, condemned by European leaders as “blackmail,” marked a dramatic escalation in the economic war of sanctions and countersanctions that has unfolded in parallel to the fighting on the battlefield.
The tactic, coming a day after the U.S. and other Western allies vowed to rush more and heavier weapons to Ukraine, could eventually force targeted nations to ration gas and could deal another blow to economies suffering from rising prices. At the same time, it could deprive Russia of badly needed income to fund its war effort.
Poland has been a major gateway for the delivery of weapons to Ukraine and confirmed this week that it is sending the country tanks. Just hours before Russia’s state energy giant Gazprom acted, Poland announced a new set of sanctions against the company and other Russian businesses and oligarchs.
Bulgaria, under a new liberal government that took office last fall, has cut many of its old ties to Moscow and likewise supported punitive measures against the Kremlin. It has also hosted Western fighter jets at a new NATO outpost on Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast.
The gas cuts do not immediately put the two countries in any dire trouble. Poland, especially, has been working for many years to line up other suppliers, and the continent is heading into summer, making gas less essential for households.
Also, Russian gas deliveries to both Poland and Bulgaria were expected to end later this year anyway.
Poland relies on coal for 70% of its energy needs, with gas only making up around 7% of its energy mix. Several years ago, the country opened its first terminal for liquefied natural gas, or LNG, in Swinoujscie, on the Baltic Sea coast. A pipeline from Norway is to due to start operating this year.
Still, the cutoff and the Kremlin warning that other countries could be next sent shivers of worry through the 27-nation European Union. Germany, the largest economy on the continent, and Italy are among Europe’s biggest consumers of Russian natural gas, though they, too, have been taking steps to reduce their dependence on Moscow.
“It comes as no surprise that the Kremlin uses fossil fuels to try to blackmail us,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. “Today, the Kremlin failed once again in his attempt to sow division amongst member states. The era of Russian fossil fuel in Europe is coming to an end.”
Gazprom said it shut off the two countries because they refused to pay in rubles, as President Vladimir Putin has demanded of “unfriendly” nations. The Kremlin said other countries may be cut off if they don’t agree to the payment arrangement.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told his country’s parliament that he believes Poland’s support for Ukraine — and the new sanctions imposed by Warsaw on Tuesday — were the real reasons behind the gas cutoff.
Some Poles and Bulgarians welcomed the cutoff for moving them closer to independence from Russian energy.
“I don’t know what the results will be for regular citizens like myself,” said Nina Rudnicka, a lecturer at Poznan University. “But I believe that one should not bow to Russia’s blackmail. It was the right decision not to change to payment in rubles.”
Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov, whose government has been cutting many of the country’s old ties with Russia, called Gazprom’s suspension of gas deliveries “a gross violation of their contract” and “blackmail.” He vowed to defend the country’s interests and “support military-technical assistance to Ukraine.”
“Unfortunately, in the recent past we were treated as Russia’s fifth column. And there are many political and economic circles that protect Russia’s interests,” he said. “We and our party will protect only Bulgarian interests.”
In Bulgaria, the main consumers of gas are district heating companies. Bulgaria’s energy minister said his country can meet the needs of users for at least one month.
“Alternative supplies are available, and Bulgaria hopes that alternative routes and supplies will also be secured at the EU level,” Energy Minister Alexander Nikolov said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia views gas as a weapon for political blackmail and “sees a united Europe as a target.”
Most European countries have publicly balked at Russia’s demand for rubles, but it is not clear how many have actually faced the moment of decision so far.
The Greek government held an emergency meeting Wednesday in Athens. Greece’s next scheduled payment to Gazprom is due on May 25, and the government must decide whether it will comply with the demand to pay in rubles.
Greece is ramping up its liquefied natural gas storage capacity, and has contingency plans to switch several industry sectors from gas to diesel as an emergency energy source. It has also reversed a program to reduce domestic coal production.
“It appears there is some posturing by Gazprom,’’ said Gianna Bern, a University of Notre Dame finance professor. “There are probably fewer consequences to turning off natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria than larger countries in Europe. Russia is definitely sending a message.”
If European nations decide not to pay in rubles, Russia can sell its oil elsewhere, such as to India and China, because oil primarily moves by ship.
It has less options with natural gas, because the pipeline network that carries gas from Russia’s huge deposits in northwestern Siberia’s Yamal Peninsula does not connect with pipelines that run to China. And Russia only has limited facilities to export super-chilled liquefied gas by ship.
First Published: April 27, 2022, 7:29 p.m.
