Everyone has felt the heat this week as temperatures have risen into the 90s, with a real feel of 110 expected for some areas.
Climate experts say these kinds of extreme weather events are here to stay, due in part to increased greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere that trap heat more effectively.
This stretch of severe heat is the first in the region in 30 years, said Lee Hendricks, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Pittsburgh.
A similar stretch of weather occurred between July 4 and 18, 1988, which saw two days above 100 degrees, and records were set during a heat wave that began on June 13, 1994, which saw three 97-degree days.
But scientists are finding that recent years are unveiling abnormal metrics that indicate the planet is out of balance.
“Greenhouse gasses are way up, and that’s partly what’s driving hotter and wetter summers here,” said Mark Abbott, a professor in the Department of Geology and Environmental Science and at the Climate and Global Change Center at the University of Pittsburgh.
Records indicate that the globe has hovered around 180 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for millions of years, said Mr. Abbott. As of last month, that number reached 427 ppm, according to data collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.
The same trend applies to atmospheric methane, a strong greenhouse gas emitted from coal and natural gas production, the agricultural industry and waste management. Methane concentrations have more than doubled since the pre-industrial period; the ppm is currently at an all-time high of 1929, per NOAA monitoring.
“Clearly, there’s a link, and clearly, we’re not doing enough about it,” said Mr. Abbott.
Low-income communities and people of color are more likely to be disproportionately impacted by severe weather events such as heat waves, flooding and drought, as evidence by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Lahaina, Hawaii, fire in 2023.
Mr. Hendricks said that local farmers are also feeling the burden of lower-than-average precipitation and higher-than-average heat.
“The farming community is probably going to be the most impacted by heat waves,” he said. “We get these abnormal temperatures, and it starts drying out crops.”
This could lead to a decrease in crop yields, he said — and for consumers, that would be reflected as an increase in price.
“Basically things go downhill from there.”
As of Wednesday, Mr. Hendricks said Pittsburgh is 1.5 inches below normal for monthly precipitation.
“We have had patchy, heavy rains, but that doesn’t get absorbed into the ground; it becomes runoff,” he explained. “Heavy rain doesn’t do anybody any good.”
While there are multiple elements that contribute to temperature fluctuation — the El Niño and La Niña cycles, volcanic eruptions, glacial movement — human activity is a clear contributor to the warmer seasons we’ve been seeing, experts say. Last summer, for one, was the hottest summer on record, with this summer poised to beat it by some estimates.
“Greenhouse gasses are trapping hot air, and you end up with more energy in the system,” said Mr. Abbott. “It’s likely that we’ll see more [weather] variability that over the years will become more intense.”
Places that experience monsoons could be targets for more extreme storms and their aftermath, with 85% likelihood of a La Niña pattern establishing itself and influencing storm activity during the 2024 tropical storm season. NOAA has predicted 17 to 25 Atlantic storms, with eight to 13 becoming hurricanes and four to seven becoming major hurricanes for the season. And with Tropical Storm Alberto already having touched down in the Gulf of Mexico, Mr. Hendricks said the season is starting early and may well loom longer.
Over millions of years within the Earth’s long life, carbon dioxide levels, global temperature and sea levels have fluctuated wildly — but the pace of change during the human era, and industrial period more specifically, has hit overdrive, research consistently shows.
“The whole idea that cycles are driving this is partly true, it’s just that we’re way out of bounds” of those natural cycles, said Mr. Abbott. “And that’s clearly due to the burning of fossil fuels. That science is pretty settled at this point.”
Mr. Hendricks said temperatures are expected to ease going into the weekend, with Sunday forecast to be in the upper 80s, Monday in the lower 80s, and Tuesday back up to the high 80s.
“It’s still going to be well-above normal for the most part,” he said.
Hanna Webster: hwebster@post-gazette.com
First Published: June 21, 2024, 4:03 p.m.
Updated: June 24, 2024, 3:23 p.m.